NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – December 6
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 37 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.9 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Tuesday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with six games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Rajon Rondo ($6,200) After an incredibly high scoring NBA FanDuel night on Monday where winning GPP scores eclipsed 400 points, we crash back to reality on Tuesday night where only one team sees a pace increase on the slate!
The Bulls are projected to be the second lowest scoring team on this slate against the Pistons which leads me to avoid them except in the case of Rajon Rondo who gets to attack the biggest weakness on Detroit – the PG spot! Detroit is allowing the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing teams this season but they rank 25th in DvP against opposing PG’s so this is a spot Rondo can exploit.
Rondo has let people down now on back to back nights after a fantastic stretch of where he put up 30+ FanDuel points in 6 straight games before a 4 point dud in Dallas and a Monday night suspension due to a flare up with the team. Rondo should be back on the court Tuesday manning the point for the Bulls and the recent issues may be enough to drive his ownership down where we can take advantage!
Goran Dragic ($7,000) With the Heat absolutely decimated by injury, Dragic has stepped up his production over the last week as our very own Jared Short outlined in his weekly FanDuel review. Dragic has hit 5x value in each of his last four games including a massive 55 FanDuel point performance against the Celtics where he racked up 27 points and 17 assists.
Dragic and the Heat take on the Knicks tonight and Miami is one of the few teams in a favorable match-up as they are projected to score the third highest point total (102.8) which is 5.7 points higher than their season average. With Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow and James Johnson already ruled out and Josh Richardson questionable, this should be a monster usage night for the Dragon and will be a staple in my lineups tonight!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Rodney Hood ($5,500) It is not often we can say that the Utah Jazz are the highest projected scoring team on the slate but that is where we are tonight folks! The Jazz are projected to score 105.8 points, a 6.3 point increase from their season average and they are the only team to see a pace increase on the slate as they take on the Suns.
With George Hill out of the lineup we have seen the offense run completely through Rodney Hood and Gordon Hayward. This was clear in last night’s game against the Lakers where both players attempted 15+ shots, the only two starters to attempt double-digit field goals in the game!
Hood is locked into 30 minutes a night and has a relatively safe 5x floor at this price point considering his usage and tonight is one of the few times the Jazz will see such a favorable pace increase which puts Hood in play for GPP’s as well!
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,700) KCP just continues to produce from a DFS perspective has he has now eclipsed 30 FanDuel points in 6 of his last 8 games. The Pistons are a middle of the pack target tonight against the Bulls but a match-up against Dwayne Wade on a back to back is a spot I want to attack on this short slate.
KCP has become a well-rounded fantasy contributor this season who is locked into 30+ minutes a night. In his last 4 games, he has put up at least 5 rebounds a night and racked up 4 assists+ in 3 of those 4 games. This is a great spot to not only save salary tonight but lock in a player who can give you 30-40 FanDuel points at a tough position to fill!
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Gordon Hayward ($8,100) All in on a Utah Jazz stack tonight! Small forward is actually the deepest position in my estimation on this slate but I am starting every single one of my teams with the Jazz star tonight.
As mentioned, Utah has the highest point total and sees a massive pace increase all while Hayward gets to face a Suns team 28th in the NBA in DvP against SF’s. Hayward has 36+ FanDuel points in each of his last 7 games and tonight is a spot where you can lock in the safe floor he has shown while targeting a match-up with massive GPP upside!
Carmelo Anthony ($7,600) The Heat have already ruled out Justise Winslow and James Johnson tonight and with Josh Richardson questionable, could Melo really get a start against Luke Babbitt? The Knicks are the 5th highest projected scoring team on the night and face a Heat team that is 18th in DvP against SF’s. However without Winslow and Johnson, this may be an even better spot for Melo than it seems on paper and one he should have no trouble exploiting in what Vegas projects as essentially a Pick Em.
In addition to the match-up, the price point on Melo sits at such a reasonable spot considering his elite skill-set. Anthony has in many ways taken a step back as the Knicks have become Kristaps Porzingis team, but we have seen even just a few days ago where Melo is capable of dropping a 60 point fantasy night on us at any point. I do not consider Melo a must play on this slate but considering the price discount from Jimmy Butler/Kawhi Leonard, he may be a better pure point per dollar play!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Tobias Harris ($5,600) Tobias burned me in his last game with only a 17.3 FanDuel point outing but I am willing to go back to the well here to target a player who had put up 30+ fantasy points in each of his previous four games.
From a DvP perspective the absolute best spot to attack the Bulls at is PF as they rank 26th in DvP to opposing PF’s. Hopefully the down game his last time out keeps people from looking his way and we can lock in Tobias tonight at lower than expected ownership!
JaMychal Green ($5,200) Stepping in for Zach Randolph, Green just continues to produce for DFS players each night and his price point has barely moved! Green is playing massive minutes each night, including 43 last night against New Orleans, and has 28 rebounds in his last two contests!
Memphis takes on a Philadelphia team that will be without the services of Joel Embiid tonight so the rebounds should continue to be there for Green!
UPDATE: Zach Randolph will be back tonight for Memphis which hurt Green’s value but makes this nice guy an even better pivot!
If you are looking for a cheaper pivot, do not overlook Dario Saric ($4,100) who has exceeded 6x value in each of his last two games while putting up 26.6 and 37.4 FanDuel points. Saric is getting extended run and even some exposure at SF and with Embiid out tonight, he is a poised for another big night!
Hassan Whiteside ($9,100) Center is where the money will be spent tonight with Whiteside and Karl-Anthony Towns on the slate but the Miami big man is my preferred target! Whiteside has put up a double-double in all but one game this season and in a spot against a Knicks team that is 22nd in DvP to opposing centers, Whiteside should continue to dominate for the undermanned Heat!
Best of luck tonight in your NBA FanDuel contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter during the day for late breaking lineup news and roster updates!