Jets at 49ers: Game preview, odds, prediction
By James Dudko
The San Francisco 49ers are looking for just their second win this season when they host the 3-9 New York Jets at Levi’s Stadium in Week 14.
Little has gone right for the 1-11 San Francisco 49ers, but they’re still favored to beat the New York Jets in Week 14. The 49ers are favored by 2.5 points, according to Odds Shark, with the over/under set at 44.
Problems at quarterback have crushed both teams this season. The 49ers have flip-flopped between Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick. Meanwhile, it’s been the Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith and Bryce Petty carousel for the Jets.
The latter will start the final four games of the season, according to head coach Todd Bowles. By contrast, Niners chief Chip Kelly will stick with Kaepernick, per Jared Dubin of CBS Sports. Kaepernick threw for just five yards in Week 13’s loss to the Chicago Bears. But his arm strength and running skills could exploit a floundering Jets defense at Levi’s Stadium this Sunday.
The Jets have allowed 275.5 receiving yards per game, according to Sporting Charts. Declining talent in the secondary has been a chief cause of the problems. Specifically, cornerback Darrelle Revis has suffered an alarming regression. There’s also been a ton of confusion in New York’s man coverage schemes. Players are routinely being put in unfavorable matchups down the field.
As much as the coverage has failed, the Jets have also suffered with a feeble pass rush. Bowles’ defense has managed just 20 sacks, one reason quarterbacks are completing 65.1 percent of their passes. Big names along the front seven simply haven’t delivered. Linemen Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson have been particularly culpable.
Kaepernick will stretch the Jets vertically unless Wilkerson and Co. step up and apply pressure. He’s got the deep-throwing talent and some burners at wide receiver. Torrey Smith and Quinton Patton can both take the top off a defense.
The 49ers can also keep the Jets off-balance if they establish the run early. Carlos Hyde is a talented back and Kaepernick is a dual-threat menace. It’s a combination Kelly should unleash often this week. The Jets allowed Frank Gore to average four yards a carry during the blowout defeat to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13.
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Of course, the Jets won’t be the only ones trying to shut down the run. The 49ers must take away Matt Forte and force Petty to beat them. It won’t be easy since the Niners have been dire rebuffing the run this season. San Fran has surrendered 4.9 yards a rush and 169.3 yards on the ground a game, per the league’s official site.
If things are going to change this week, the 49ers need a big day from their top draft pick, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. Buckner and nose tackle Glenn Dorsey could dominate against a Jets O-line likely to miss its anchorman. ESPN’s Rich Cimini confirmed there’s a doubt about the pivot at the heart of New York’s front five:
Petty and the Jets will win if Forte runs riot. But if the Niners keep Forte quiet, Kaepernick is the under-fire quarterback likely to produce more big plays.
Pick: 49ers 24, Jets 16