Jayson Tatum has arrived: What that means for Duke and how he’s getting involved

What does the arrival of Jayson Tatum mean for the Duke Blue Devils and their offense?

With about six minutes remaining in the Duke Blue Devils’ 84-74 win over the Florida Gators at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night, five-star freshman and future NBA lottery pick Jayson Tatum caught an entry pass from teammate Luke Kennard near the 3-point line.

Guarded by 6-foot-6 graduate transfer Canyon Barry, Tatum made two hard dribbles with his left hand, backing down his defender. He shimmied towards his left shoulder. Barry bit on the fake. Tatum rolled back over his right shoulder, stepped back and knocked down the sort of mid-range jumper that would make Dirk Nowitzki jealous. Former Blue Devil and three-time NBA All-Star Kyrie Irving gave Tatum a standing ovation from courtside.

For an 18-year-old who has played just two college games, there is plenty of pressure on Tatum. Like Irving, he is expected to be a one-and-done player and future NBA All-Star. He is also one of a trio of Duke freshmen presumed to be ready to take the Blue Devils to another level; one unmatched by any other team in college basketball.

That’s a difficult task considering Duke is already one of the elite teams in the country. Kennard and senior Amile Jefferson have both had breakout seasons in the absence of the freshmen triad, Frank Jackson has contributed more early on than most expected and preseason National Player of the Year favorite Grayson Allen is still on the roster, although hindered by injury.

What’s noticeable, though, is that head coach Mike Krzyzewski seems committed to helping Tatum find his place in the system. The 6-foot-8 wing already has a usage rate of 27.2 percent, which categorizes him as a “major contributor,” according to KenPom. Although he has only spent 49 minutes on the court this season, trends are emerging that show how he’ll contribute to the Duke offense.

The scouting report on the 18-year-old coming into college pegged him as a pure scorer who excels in isolations and has an old school penchant for playing in the mid-range. That space has fallen out of style as teams look for more efficient scoring opportunities closer to the basket or behind the 3-point line, but Tatum lives in it. Eight of his 15 non-transition field goal attempts have been 2-point jumpers, according to Hoop-Math.com, and he has only taken two 3-pointers in two games so far.

Tatum often receives the ball in the space between the painted area and the 3-point line, frequently on the right side of the court. In most cases, he has his defender on his back, creating an easy entry point for the Blue Devils’ guards. From there, he’ll go to work either backing down his defender or facing them up in an attempt to create space to launch one of those mid-range jumpers. The four other players on the court simply clear out of the way for Tatum with Jefferson sliding towards the basket to grab an offensive rebound. The shots are almost always tough, which is perhaps why Tatum has made just 3-of-9 mid-range attempts this season:

If opponents anticipate his move towards the middle of the floor where he can lift off for his jump shot, Tatum will take advantage. Twice the 18-year-old has spun towards the baseline and gotten a clean look at a layup:

The freshman has other weapons from this spot on the floor as well. Tatum is adept at facing up his defender and attacking off the dribble when he’s given even a small amount of space. These plays usually either result in a good look for the Blue Devils’ offense at the rim or a trip to the free throw line for Tatum who has drawn 8.3 fouls per 40 minutes over the two games. His drives are the definition of “you reach, I teach”:

Tatum has also already been given the freedom to bring the ball up the court after grabbing a defensive rebound. This is something that Krzyzewski allowed Brandon Ingram to do often last season. Through two games, Tatum has an outstanding defensive rebound rate of 31.6 percent. That number almost certainly isn’t sustainable — it would rank in the top 10 nationally — but he should still have plenty of opportunities to push the ball up the court and force defenses to make difficult decisions like he did here:

For all of his scoring ability, advanced metrics don’t actually rate Tatum as that impactful of an offensive player through two games. His Offensive Box Plus/Minus score is -0.1 while his Points Above Median (6.4) suggests he has a much closer offensive impact to Chase Jeter than to Kennard or even Allen.

A closer look yields a rather obvious explanation. While Tatum is excellent scoring in those isolation situations, he doesn’t do much to get his teammates involved. In 49 minutes played, he has just one assist. When the swingman gets the ball, he’s thinking buckets. The above fast break is illustrative. As Tatum breaks the halfcourt line, he has Kennard streaking open to his right, but rather than pass the ball off, the 18-year-old barrels forward looking to draw a foul.

Of course this is a small sample size. Tatum has played just two games and he’s spent less than an hour on the court. His advanced numbers could theoretically improve over the season, but what we’ve seen so far seems to suggest that Tatum is what we expected: an excellent isolation scorer who needs to expand his range and involve his teammates a bit more.

Still, there’s no doubt that having a top-five recruit available makes the Blue Devils better. The question is just how much better can they actually be? Duke was already 7-1 when Tatum stepped on the court for the first time and the team was just one Frank Mason jumper away from being undefeated. On the back of Kennard’s breakout, the Blue Devils also already had the best scoring offense in the country, according to KenPom.

Krzyzewski will have interesting roster choices to make soon enough. With Tatum healthy, one of Kennard, Allen, Jackson, Jefferson or Matt Jones — one of the sport’s best defenders — will have to play fewer minutes. That combination has been Duke’s most used five-man group this season, according to Hoop Lens. The crunch will get even tighter when the nation’s top-rated recruit Harry Giles takes the floor.

Next: Grant Hill talks Duke, Coach K's future

In any event, Tatum will continue to be valuable as a scorer for the Blue Devils. He’ll give the team a safety net in the instance that one of those players who have been on the court all season has an off night. Right now, that means covering for Allen who continues to be nagged by injuries. The junior sat out against Maine and shot just 2-for-10 in the win over the Gators. Tatum’s ability to score in a variety of the ways makes up for that loss. Resilience is important over a long season. For Duke, that means having a future lottery pick available to help out no matter how good the Blue Devils already are.