ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania Picks 2016

Here are all the ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania 2016 picks!

Bowl season is upon us once again. The college football season is not done just yet! We still have Capital One Bowl Mania! I still have 42 more picks to make, 41 of which I will make against the spread. More on that later.

More from College Football Odds

• Colorado football getting insane amount of bets to win 2024 National Championship
• College Football National Championship Odds on National Signing Day
• 3 college football teams that could beat Georgia in 2023 (Can Florida State break through?)
• College Football 2023 National Championship Odds (Georgia favored for three-peat)
• Best college football bowl game picks today (Best bets for Monday, January 2)

Are you in a bowl pool where you need to make all of your bowl picks before the games begin? Or do you play ESPN’s Capital One Bowl Mania? In case you do, this is the place to get every game picked before they all begin. I will place them in order of confidence for those of you that play that format.

Would you like to play along? Join the Fantasy CPR readers group now, and join the Fantasy CPR Staff and other readers to see who is the best! You even get an advantage because you know how I picked!

Since it doesn’t make sense to pick all of these games against the spread right now, those will be done at a later date. This is just for those of us that need to pick all at once. These are in order from least confidence (1) to most (42). Because, you know, it’s more dramatic that way.

Next: Let's Get Started!

(1) USC over Penn State:

These are two of the hottest teams out there right now. I expect this to be the best game of bowl season. The only reason I am taking the Trojans here is because this game is practically in their backyard. Penn State is fully capable of winning this, but it essentially being a road game is going to be tough to overcome.

(2) Idaho over Colorado State:

EDIT: I am moving this game up to 18 and taking Colorado State. I learned things in research that made me a lot more confident in the Rams, who have been the best team in the Mountain West over the last six weeks. 

Honestly, the Vandals aren’t supposed to be here. This is a team that is actually dropping to FCS after next season. Idaho won seven games in the past four years combined. This year they won eight. Colorado State is going to be a tough task for Idaho, but they have been winning games they shouldn’t all year. This is practically a home game, and maybe their last ever bowl game. Idaho will show up here.

(3) San Diego State over Houston:

Houston was a team that came into the season with a legitimate chance at the playoffs after beating Florida State last year in the bowl game. Then they took down Big 12(10) Champion and a playoff team from last year, Oklahoma, in the opener. The road was wide open for them to crash the party. Instead, they fell apart. Houston is by far the more talented team, but I’m not sure they want to be here. The Aztecs do.

(4) TCU over Georgia:

Both of these teams started the season in the top 15. That just goes to show you how pointless preseason polls are. Honestly, I’m not a fan of either team. TCU has a talented, but undisciplined offense and an average defense. Georgia is young and still makes a lot of mistakes. Georgia’s best win was against an Auburn team without their RB and starting QB. TCU destroyed a Baylor team without their QB and Texas to get Charlie strong fired. I still trust TCU just a bit more.

(5) BYU over Wyoming:

On paper, this looks close. BYU lost their four games by a total of eight points. And this is also Taysom Hill’s last game. Wyoming looked great early on, toppling the almight Boise State (a team that BYU lost to). However, the Cowboys stumbled down the stretch and have been torched by rushing offenses lately. Wyoming keeps it close, but I doubt they win.

Next: Are There More Upsets In This Tier?

(6) UTSA over New Mexico:

New Mexico got a big win over a Wyoming team that had already clinched a berth in the Mountain West Championship. UTSA nearly took down Arizona State, and put up a good fight against a ranked Texas A&M team. Their only common opponent is Colorado State. UTSA lost by nine. New Mexico lost by twice that. UTSA is better than people think. Watch and find out.

(7) Ohio over Troy:

How much stronger is the MAC than the Sun Belt? That really is the question here. The Trojans stumbled down the stretch, losing to Arkansas State and Georgia Southern. Ohio put up a good fight against Central Michigan. The issue here is that Ohio lost to a Texas State team in the opener that Troy beat by 33. I tend to trust the WMU game more than the opener though.

(8) Florida State over Michigan:

Everyone has talked about the Wolverines. All season long. What is lost on many is the fact that Colorado was in control of that game until Sefo Liufau got hurt. Michigan lost to an Iowa team that completely clamped down on them defensively. Florida State’s defense is capable of doing that. And this is essentially a road game for Michigan. Michigan didn’t play well on the road this year.

(9) Toledo over Appalachian State:

Toledo RB Kareem Hunt in the only NFL player in this game. Will that be enough? It’s hard to stop a good option offense, and that is exactly what the Mountaineers are. I think I would much rather take the over than to pick this game, even straight up. It’s a tough one, but again, I trust the MAC more than the Sun Belt.

(10) National Championship Game (TBA):

I expect a good game, and we are still able to adjust the point value of non-locked games. If chalk holds, it will be a rematch of last year, and likely another good game. If one or both of the teams pull an upset, then is gets tricky. Good thing there are plenty of games on New Year’s Day both above and below this to change the points. If I do, I will let you know on Twitter.

Next: Spoiler Alert: I'm Not Done With Upsets!

(11) Grambling State over North Carolina Central:

This one should probably be lower, but Grambling almost beat Arizona, who was a bowl team last year. That counts for something! North Carolina Central was also unbeaten at the FCS level, but they got demolished by Duke and Western Michigan.

(12) Utah over Indiana:

Most people will have this game higher, but the fact is that Indiana was missing key pieces on offense for much of the season. I like Devine Redding more than anyone Utah will slap on the field (sorry Joe Williams…I really do like his style), but that Utah defense is very good. They are good enough to contain the Indiana offense. You can’t say the same about Indiana’s defense.

(13) Kansas State over Texas A&M:

This will be another unpopular pick, but hear me out. The loss of Trevor Knight contributed to the Aggies’ late season swoon, but this defense should have been better than that. Knight’s numbers against Kansas State were pretty good over his Oklahoma career, but this Kansas State defense only allowed 25 points per game in conference play. That is unheard of in an offensive conference like the Big 12(10). They can handle A&M’s offense, and their offense is deceptively good.

(14) Wisconsin over Western Michigan:

This is going to be a close game, and I almost took Western Michigan to win it. Winning the Big Ten(14) West is not a major accomplishment. The Broncos already have taken down two Big Ten(14) foes this year. They will come very close to making it three. I just like the Wisconsin defense a little more.

(15) Eastern Michigan over Old Dominion:

Both teams want to be here. The Eagles have not been to a bowl since 1987. The Monarchs have never been to one. Eastern Michigan stumbled a little bit during MAC play, but once again, we have a Sun Belt vs. MAC matchup. I’m taking the MAC again.

(16) Louisiana Tech over Navy:

Will Worth got hurt in the Army game, so Navy will be without their top two quarterbacks for this game. Navy will be able to plug and play another quarterback, but without any live games, will it be good enough? I will go with the sure thing known as the Louisiana Tech offense.

(17) Mississippi State over Miami(OH):

The Redhawks have won six straight after starting the season 0-6. Mississippi State needs to win this to get to that win total. This has been a rough season for the Bulldogs, and I’m not even entirely sure that they can win this. What they did to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl was proof of what this team is capable of.

(18) Nebraska over Tennessee:

EDIT: I am moving this game down to two confidence points. With the news that Nebraska will be without Tommy Armstrong and Jordan Westerkamp, it is going to be very hard for them to win this game. I am still picking Nebraska right now, but that may change. Stay tuned!

Yes, this game is in the state of Tennessee, but Nashville is a Vanderbilt town. Nebraska always travels well, and this is new territory. They haven’t been to a bowl game here! Tennessee has been a mess all season long, winning many games they had no business winning. The talent is there, but that hasn’t been enough. It wont be here either.

(19) Western Kentucky over Memphis:

This will be one of the better games of bowl season. Combined, these teams have averaged nearly 85 points per game this year. It will be high scoring and crazy. Sometimes you need those. I trust the Hilltopper offense more.

(20) Florida over Iowa:

Iowa’s performance over the last couple of weeks has me doubting that I should keep it this high. The Hawkeyes played well down the stretch while the Gators continue to wallow in offensive ineptitude. The only thing that still has me behind Florida is their run defense. Iowa can’t throw to win. Florida may be able to.

(21) Miami(FL) over West Virginia:

The Big 12(10) went belly up in bowl games last year. I don’t expect anything different this year. West Virginia struggled against diverse offenses in Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Miami is offensively similar to those two teams, and is likely better on defense.

(22) North Carolina over Stanford:

I do realize that this is the college swan song for Christian McCaffrey. I also realize that Stanford has not beaten a team with a .500 record since week 2. Think about that for a minute. The Cardinal have nine wins, but only two came against teams with more than five wins. Those were in the first two weeks of the season. At least the Tarheels have beaten teams with a pulse.

(23) North Texas over Army:

This is the only rematch of bowl season, and a pretty weak one at that. North Texas won the first meeting by 18 at West Point earlier this year. This is practically a home game for the Mean Green, who will only be about 30 miles from campus. I should probably put this higher, but an alarming number of people are on Army.

(24) Alabama over Washington:

No one has really come close to Alabama. The Tide also blew out the team that beat Washington. Yes, it was week one, but it still counts. I don’t see Washington getting blown out like some do. I wouldn’t be overly surprised if the Huskies won. That is why I’m keeping it right in the middle.

(25) Colorado over Oklahoma State:

We have another former Big 12 matchup here, but here I expect the former Big 12 team to come out on top. Sefo Liufau is one of the more polished quarterbacks I’ve watched this year, and Phillip Lindsay is a better back than most realize. Oklahoma State has a very accomplished quarterback in Mason Rudolph, but I don’t think he has seen a defense like this. Colorado’s defense will make the difference.

(26) Pittsburgh over Northwestern:

This game is going to be closer than most think. Northwestern is a solid team that doesn’t beat themselves. Pitt has on occasion, but they are the only team that I can remember that has beaten two teams that were in the top five at the end of the season. That’s right. Pitt beat both Penn State and Clemson this year. If they play like they can, this wont be close.

(27) Air Force over South Alabama:

South Alabama has been the most inconsistent bowl team this year. They beat Mississippi State in Starkville and San Diego State in San Diego, yet they lost to Georgia Southern and Louisiana-Monroe, who are a combined 7-17. Can you figure them out? Me either. Otherwise there would be more points on this one.

(28) Ohio State over Clemson:

Everyone is painting this as a marquee quarterback matchup, which it is. If you measure a game solely on that, I give the advantage to Clemson. However, the Clemson defense has had issues this year, and Clemson is very lucky to not have three losses. Ohio State is a team that many are going to say shouldn’t be in here because they didn’t win their conference. That is an irrelevant argument. The committee got it right. Ohio State only lost once, and they played a pretty tough schedule. They earned their spot, and I think they prove it here.

(29) Tulsa over Central Michigan:

The Chippewas have fallen on hard times since being given a win in Stillwater earlier this year. In fact, if they weren’t given that game, the Chips wouldn’t be bowl eligible. Tulsa’s offense is scary good. They could run up a whole bunch of points in this one.

(30) Oklahoma over Auburn:

Auburn’s defense is one of the better ones I have watched this year, but Oklahoma’s defense isn’t nearly as bad as it was early on. They are doing a much better job at stopping the run, and wont have much trouble with Auburn’s passing game. This will be a lower scoring game than the Sooners are used to, but Auburn hasn’t seen an offense like this either. SEC teams are the only teams Oklahoma shows up against, so we should be safe this year.

(31) Georgia Tech over Kentucky:

The Wildcats rebounded nicely after an awful start, but we all know the SEC East was a wreck. We also know how hard it is to stop an option offense when you don’t face one. Kentucky has had a lot of time to practice against this option, but I’m not sure they have the defensive speed to do it. Tech is the safe pick.

(32) Middle Tennessee State over Hawaii:

I may move the points on this one down if Brent Stockstill can’t play. This game happens on Christmas Eve, so a lot can change in two weeks. Even if Stockstill can’t go, I think I still like the Blue Raiders. Hawaii is money on the islands, but they haven’t played a good team there yet. MTSU qualifies as a good team.

(33) LSU over Louisville:

Even without the Heisman curse, I would have taken LSU. Their defense is far better than anything Lamar Jackson has seen this year. If they thought Houston’s Ed Oliver was bad, LSU has about four guys that are nearly the caliber of Oliver. Jackson made a lot of mistakes against Houston and Kentucky. LSU is better than both of them combined. Derrius Guice is nearly as good as Leonard Fournette. Fournette sitting doesn’t change my opinion of this game.

(34) Boise State over Baylor:

I have not been impressed by either team, but with all of the off field issues just getting worse at Baylor, how in the world can they possibly concentrate? It either directly involves the players or great friends of the players. This probe is nowhere near done, and it just keeps getting worse. Note to Boise State: Jeremy McNichols needs to carry the ball about 40 times. He will top 200 yards easily.

(35) Southern Mississippi over Louisiana-Lafayette: 

Nick Mullens will be back to 100% in this one, which spells bad news for Lafayette. Southern Miss beat a very good Louisiana Tech team in their last game. Oh, and if you haven’t watched Southern Miss running back Ito Smith, you are missing out. He is one of the better backs you haven’t heard of.

(36) Central Florida over Arkansas State:

The Knights were 0-12 last year. Scott Frost led them to a 6-6 record and back to relevance. UCF slowed down after a fast start. The Red Wolves have been the opposite. After a 0-4 start when they were shuffling quarterbacks, the Red Wolves won seven of their last eight. Still, I think there is a big talent gap here despite Arkansas State having Oklahoma transfer Justice Hansen at QB.

(37) Maryland over Boston College:

Maryland’s record is deceiving. QB Payton Hills missed half the season with various nagging injuries. By no means is Maryland an elite team, but they did beat a couple of solid teams before Hills went down. Hills will be healthy for this game, so Boston College will have their work cut out for them.

(38) North Carolina State over Vanderbilt:

I hate to bring up the SEC East again, but if Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri were anywhere close to what they have been and Tennessee was anywhere close to what they should be, Kentucky and Vanderbilt wouldn’t be in bowl games. NC State is riding high after beating arch rival North Carolina. They also had Clemson beat before letting them wiggle away. The Wolfpack offense is going to overwhelm the Commodores.

(39) South Florida over South Carolina:

It was not a good first year in Columbia for Will Muschamp. South Florida’s only losses came to two ranked teams, Florida State and Temple. Quinton Flowers is the best quarterback you have never heard of, and if he had the talent around him that Lamar Jackson does, you would have heard about him until his ears bleed. The only thing that makes me a little nervous is an interim coach for the Bulls. So yeah, I moved this down a tad.

(40) Virginia Tech over Arkansas:

Arkansas coach Bret Bielema “accidentally” left the Hokies off of his ballot in the final Coaches Poll. Whether it was as simple as that or something more sinister, the truth is of little consequence. You know Virginia Tech has used it to fire them up. In a bowl season that has very few gimmes, this one has to be moved up because of that. It was a crazy season. It promises to be a crazy bowl season as well.

(41) Washington State over Minnesota:

The Gophers have bad memories of Mike Leach. The Gophers took a 35-3 lead over Leach’s Texas Tech team in the 2006 Insight Bowl, only to lose the game in overtime. Minnesota has also lost ten players, including two defensive starters, to suspension for this game. I was very confident in this before. Now it’s a no-brainer.

(42) Temple over Wake Forest:

Surprisingly enough, both of these teams lost to Army. The difference was that Temple lost to them in the opener. Wake lost in the middle of the conference season. The Owls are playing as well as any Group of Five team right now, and that includes Cotton Bowl bound Western Michigan. This gets ugly

Next: How Crazy Are Fantasy Football Fans?

Stay tuned for complete bowl capsules for all of these games, and the picks against the spread. I’m not done embarrassing myself just yet!