College football picks against the spread: Bowl season, week 1

Dec 3, 2016; Laramie, WY, USA; San Diego State Aztecs cornerback Kyree Woods (27) and tight end Darryl Richardson (84) celebrates after game against the Wyoming Cowboys at the Mountain West Championship college football game at War Memorial Stadium. The Aztecs beat the Cowboys 27-24. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports /

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Nov 26, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA;UCF Knights head coach Scott Frost looks on against the South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium. South Florida Bulls defeated the UCF Knights 48-31. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

Cure Bowl (5:30 pm ET, CBSSN) – Arkansas State and Central Florida UNDER 49.5 points

With apologies to CBS Sports Network and the good people at the Cure Bowl, this isn’t the most intriguing matchup. However, it does provide us with a very nice opportunity to go under a total for the first time during bowl season.

Arkansas State ranks as the 109th-best offense in the country, according to S&P+.

Central Florida ranks as the 110th-best offense in the country, according to S&P+.

Can you see where I am going with this?

Yes, this total is not terribly high for a bowl game, but 49 is still well above what you would expect for a game that could quickly transform into a Big Ten slug-fest that involves Iowa. If you made me pick a side, I would probably tell you that UCF is the play considering they are significantly better than Arkansas State, but the number is a bit too large for my liking and the under looks to be quite juicy.

Rooting against points is not always fun, but it is what we do and this is a good spot for it.

Next: Camellia Bowl

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