Fansided

Camellia Bowl, Appalachian State vs Toledo: Preview and predictions

By Nathaniel Reeves

Nov 9, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Toledo Rockets running back Kareem Hunt (3) rushes the ball against the Northern Illinois Huskies during the first half at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 9, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Toledo Rockets running back Kareem Hunt (3) rushes the ball against the Northern Illinois Huskies during the first half at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

The 2016 Camellia Bowl between the Appalachian State Mountaineers and Toledo Rockets could be one of the most even matchups of the college football postseason.

Two of the Group of Five’s best programs will clash when the Appalachian State Mountaineers meet the Toledo Rockets on Saturday evening in the 2016 Camellia Bowl.

The Mountaineers haven’t missed a beat since coming up to the FBS level in 2014 and posted their third straight winning season at 9-3. After taking Tennessee to overtime in a loss to start the year, the Mountaineers went 7-1 in conference play and split the Sun Belt title with Arkansas State, as the two teams did not meet this year.

Appalachian State will be gunning for its second straight Camellia Bowl title after beating Ohio 31-29 in a wild game last season.

First year head coach Jason Candle did a terrific job taking over for Matt Campbell by leading Toledo to a 9-3 record. The Rockets fell short of the MAC West title after losing to Western Michigan to close out the season, but otherwise enjoyed a strong year that included a win over Arkansas State and two-point loss on the road to a good BYU team.

Toledo has won two straight bowl games, including a 24-17 victory over Temple in the 2015 Boca Raton Bowl.

There isn’t much to separate the two teams on paper, and oddsmakers have pegged Toledo as a very slight favorite as a result according to Odds Shark.

Odds

Point Spread:  Toledo -1
Moneyline: Toledo -115, Appalachian State -105
O/U:  58.5

Toledo’s explosive offense against Appalachian State’s stout defense will be one of the more intriguing matchups of the early bowl season.

The Rockets were one of the most efficient offenses in the nation with 38.8 points per game on seven yards per play, the sixth best mark in the country. While Kareem Hunt remained an effective running back, junior quarterback Logan Woodside powered the offense with 3,882 passing yards and 43 touchdowns to nine interceptions.

While Toledo will present a huge challenge, the Mountaineers are one of the most well-equipped G5 teams to handle the Rockets’ passing attack. Appalachian State allowed just 5.8 yards per opponent pass attempt, the fifth best mark in the nation, and recorded 20 interceptions, which trailed only San Diego State and Wisconsin for most by a team. Top defensive back Clifton Duck will look to slow down Toledo receiver Cody Thompson, who reeled in 59 passes for 1,170 yards.

The key for Toledo will be generating some stops against an Appalachian State offense that is solid in its own right. Mountaineers running back Jalin Moore piled up 223 carries for 1,367 yards, and could be in for a big day against a suspect Rockets defense.

As always, the turnover battle will be critical in a matchup between two even teams. While the Mountaineers feature a ballhawking secondary, the Rockets forced just 11 turnovers all season.

Next: Best college quarterback born in every state

Toledo is going to put some points on the board, but the Mountaineers can trust their defense to slow down the Rockets enough to pull off a hard-fought win.

Prediction: Appalachian State 31, Toledo 27

Home/College Football