Prospect Calibration: Aaron Gordon’s career night and optimal role

Withering away on a disappointing Orlando Magic team, playing out of position, out of the national spotlight, Aaron Gordon exploded back onto the NBA scene Wednesday night, putting up a career high 33 points as the Magic lost to the Los Angeles Clippers 113-108. Still just 21-years-old, the former number four overall pick has become largely an afterthought as a prospect when he’s not participating in the dunk contest. This is a mistake.

Elite level prospects typically flash elite talent level in their first three years in the league, and we have yet to see that leap from Gordon. But you have to consider context in his case. Feeling ownership pressure to make the playoffs in year five of the Rob Hennigan era, the Magic used trade capital to acquire Serge Ibaka and proceeded to double-down in the front court using full cap space to sign Bismack Biyombo and Jeff Green. As a result, Orlando had Nikola Vucevic, Biyombo, Ibaka, Green and Gordon vying for minutes at the four and five spots. Something had to give. Unfortunately, it was Orlando’s best prospect who had to sacrifice.

Gordon has seen his estimated time spent at the four drop from 66 percent as a rookie to 60 percent in year two to an incredible 3 percent this season, while his splits at the three have increased from 33 percent to 40 percent to a skyrocketed 94 percent this season respectively. Magic coach Frank Vogel is on record stating his intent to use Gordon like he did Paul George during his stint with the Indiana Pacers. Gordon is just not that player. He doesn’t possess George’s fluid handle to create space in small areas in creation situations, nor does Gordon possess the ability to shoot off the dribble.

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Gordon is a big space player, not a creator who can get around quicker wings, especially when those defenders get into his body. It’s difficult to define positions as the league grows more positionless. While some positions can be defined based on who you can defend (which would render Gordon a very capable wing), you also have to consider offensive role (where Gordon’s skill-set is clearly that of a four).

Simply put, there isn’t a more misused player in the league right now than Aaron Gordon. He will never be a go-to scorer, but there is high two-way utility here if he is utilized playing to his strengths.

Gordon is by no means a plus overall shooter, but he’s also not a non-shooter — he’s a decent catch-and-shoot player, and far better off the catch than off the dribble. His effective field goal percentage off the catch is only a mere 51.3, but he’s 36.9 percent shooter on catch-and-shoot 3-pointrs on 2.4 attempts per game, which is above league average for overall 3s. No one respects his shot, as the following clip illuminates with Austin Rivers ignoring him entirely to clog the paint on the Elfrid Payton/Biyombo pick-and-roll.

Gordon does a good job catching in shooting position, and his mechanics have vastly improved from earlier in his career. In the following clip, again you see DeAndre Jordan switched onto Gordon, and Jordan doesn’t even attempt to contest his shot.

On the year, Gordon is shooting a respectable 40.9 percent from 3 on 1.7 wide-open attempts per game, per NBA.Com. Wide-open is defined as the closest defender being 6+ feet away. Teams don’t guard him, which hurts his value as a non-gravitational threat and further mucking up Orlando’s league worst spacing, but he has shown the ability to knock down open 3s from a stationary position at a respectable clip when ignored.

Gordon becomes far less adept as a shooter when he has to do so on the move without his feet set.

He shows good footwork squaring up running off the down-screen curl here, but the conversion, while fluid, is far more the outlier than the norm.

To reiterate the above sentiment, Gordon is a big space player who has shown at least the proclivity to knock down wide-open threes and attack large gaps in the defense on closeouts. His athleticism, speed, plus first step and agility with the ball usually overwhelms less mobile big men trying to close out on him. The game against the Clippers shed light on this idea on multiple occasions, starting with Mo Speights.

Even athletic big men like Blake Griffin struggle to keep Gordon in front of them in these situations.

Gordon just has a considerable athletic advantage over most bigs in the league in large spaces and in closeout situations specifically, and that advantage is mitigated when he plays the three and is defended by wings who can contain his blow-bys, which then necessitates close quarters handling, not Gordon’s strong suit.

Gordon has enough juice off the bounce to beat most bigs off the bounce in space, even outlier athletes, and should be utilized in the following manner instead of against quicker wings.

Gordon is an elite cutter due to his explosive finishing acumen and fantastic body control around the rim. On 27 finishing possessions this year as a cutter, he is sporting a 1.78 points per possession efficiency mark, good for the 96th percentile. He’s a dynamic finisher in the restricted area, where he’s converting at 69.5 percent on three attempts per game. It’s not just that he can finish, he’s also a smart cutter when ignored off the ball.

Gordon’s body control and fluidity converting speed to power is just outlier elite. Even on non-insane dunk finishes (he didn’t even look at the rim in the above clip!), Gordon shows incredible in-air body control to navigate his way around shot contests.

Pairing Gordon’s finishing acumen and passing ability on the move with respectable shooting in wide open cases, you have a very workable baseline for pick-and-pops and attacking closeouts at the four spot. Unfortunately, he’s not being utilized in this manner.

Gordon has 40 finishing possessions as the pick-and-roll ball handler this year, registering a woeful .47 points per possession efficiency mark, good for the 6th percentile. Conversely, Gordon has only finished three possessions as a pick-and-roll screener this season. This is the diametric opposite of what the distribution should be. Gordon is not a primary wing or isolation creator, lacking the tight handle and fluidity shooting off the dribble to excel in the pick-and-roll creation game.

His mechanics waver shooting off the dribble, as seen in the following clip where he fades away slightly and doesn’t hold his follow-through the same way he does off the catch.

Gordon is just not an off-the-dribble shooting threat. On the year his effective field goal percentage is an outlier poor 30.0 percent on three attempts per game in these situations, and his 3-point percentage is a ghastly 15.4 percent on 0.5 attempts per game. The following pull-up shot (admittedly a poor decision over a contest) is not in Gordon’s arsenal, and likely never will be.

Overall, as evidenced by the Clippers game in microcosm, Gordon still projects as a dynamite two-way playmaking four when he’s used right, an incredibly rare archetype. Unfortunately, due to a personnel crunch Orlando is trying to use him as wing creator offensively, and it’s understandably not working.

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For the billionth time, optimal role and player development are crucial elements to player evaluation, and they consistently get overlooked in favor of pure talent. Gordon’s explosion Wednesday night reminded everyone that not only is the talent level real, but when Gordon is utilized correctly he’s a two-way weapon. Consistently compared to fellow draft class mate Julius Randle, if Gordon were in Randle’s role in Los Angeles, as a superior finisher and halfcourt passer on the move with actual range shooting and high-level defense, we’d likely be talking about him in a totally different light. Instead, he’s caught in purgatory in Orlando, and he’s being slept on as a result. It’s a damn shame.