Dennis Schroder showing flashes amidst inconsistency
Dennis Schroder is quietly one of the hottest players in basketball right now. In last night’s victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder — without Dwight Howard — Schroder scored 30 points or more for the third time since November 30. For the month of December in total, Schroder is averaging 20.6 points and 7.7 assists per game with a true shooting percentage of 62.9 percent. His efficiency this month, albeit on a small sample size, is at a level never before seen from him in his career.
These scoring outbursts are starting to become a little more common for the fourth year guard, which is a great sign for the Atlanta Hawks after they took a risk by giving him the keys to their offense this season. Schroder has always been one of the more frustrating players in the NBA. Never afraid to attack the basket, in the past his confidence has led to a tendency to hijack the offense to poor results. High-volume guards are commonplace in the NBA, but if the offense isn’t successful or they don’t score very efficiently then it becomes a problem rather quickly.
Schroder has taken great strides to better select when he attacks, and it’s built to this month where he’s had dominant scoring outbursts. If he continues to play to this standard and gets some help from Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard, Kyle Korber and Kent Bazemore, there’s no reason the Hawks can’t grab control of their season and make a run for one of the top three seeds in the East.
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However, the issue with Schroder is playing at his high level on a consistent basis. The December numbers look great scoring wise, but the Hawks still have a negative net rating when Schroder is on the floor. When changing the sample size to the entire season, the Hawks actually have a positive net rating when Schroder is on the bench. He’s playing well, but his shot volume is still high and there are a lot of 12-points-on-12-shot type performances mixed in with the 30-point ones. One night he’ll look just like the player Atlanta wanted, but the next he fails to give them what is needed. With Howard missing time, things could just easily break the other way, getting bad for Atlanta in a hurry, even with Schroder continuing to put up high point totals.
For the month of December, only two players have a positive net rating for Atlanta: Paul Millsap and Howard. Schroder has the fourth best net rating on the team and they’re a full 17 points worse without him, so clearly his scoring is having a positive effect in some areas. His scoring alone just hasn’t been enough.
Schroder has gotten far better at distributing the ball, and running the offense, but it’s very clear that something is missing here. A player scoring at the levels he is should not be having a negative effect on his team. Maybe it will correct itself as the season plays out. Or, maybe he’s just hot and the full sample size is the real him.
Atlanta has struggled to be the team they want to be this season. Their middling record is evidence of that and if they want to get back to being one of the top teams in the East, they’ll need Schroder to find the pulse he’s on right now and stay there. If he can do that, this could be the start of a turnaround in Atlanta. The flashes of brilliance he’s displayed amidst the inconsistency shows a really good point guard exists in him. He just has to figure out how to do that on the majority of nights.
If he does, then Atlanta is going to have a dangerous weapon in their backcourt.