DraftKings NBA Picks for December 20
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for December 20
The NBA is back up to 11 games tonight, which gives us plenty of options for our DraftKings lineups. These are the nights that you really need to pay attention to bargains and which stars have good matchups.
Don’t forget to follow @fantasycpr on Twitter for lineup updates as we get them leading to the tipoffs of the games! I am not always able to get back in here and fix my picks when someone sits for the night, but we will update it on Twitter.
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I am going to change one little thing. I usually create two DraftKings lineups, so I am going to start posting the both of them since the one I post usually winds up being the lower scoring of the two.
If you want a second opinion, head on over to Fantasypros. They will use their algorithm to help you find the best bang for the buck. They can also be customized to do the turbo and late tournaments, and they will also build around your favorite stack!
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,800): Sizing him up against how other teams do against point guards is unfair. Giannis would be a tough matchup at any position on the court. He torched Cleveland for 69.5 DraftKings points in their first meeting. He may not score 34 points, but even if he only hits 20, he is still a threat for 5x value.
Chris Paul ($9,200): Paul’s value got a huge boost when Blake Griffin went down again. We saw what kind of games Paul had last year when he had to do the bulk of the scoring. Denver’s perimeter defense has improved since the early going, but Paul should still be a lock for a double double while scoring at least 20 points.
Honorable Mention:
Damian Lillard ($8,500): Lillard has struggled a bit lately, but it is likely the quality of opponents that are keeping him down. He still has the ball in his hands for a large percentage of the game. Lillard racked up 47.75 DraftKings points on the Kings in their first meeting. He should be in that same area again tonight.
Kyle Lowry ($8,400): Lowry has four straight games of under 5x value after hitting that mark in seven straight before that. The bad streak should be over here against a Nets team that still hasn’t discovered the value of defense.
Dark Horses:
Jeremy Lin ($5,700): Lin’s price is pretty low right now due to his minutes restriction, but he has been over 25 DraftKings points in all three of his games back. His minutes could be up around the 25 mark against Toronto tonight, a team that is in the bottom third of the league against point guards. Lin should be around 30 DraftKings points or so, and shouldn’t have a lot of suitors.
Patrick Beverley ($5,400): Beverley is still way underpriced. He has hit at least 5x value in 11 straight games. There should be no reservations about using him against the Spurs, who are the second worst team in the league defending the point.
Darren Collison ($4,900): Collison has struggled against teams that are good on the perimeter, but he was able to put up 30.75 DraftKings points on Portland in the first meeting between these two teams. If he can duplicate that, he is perched at 6x value!
My pick: Beverley(PG), Collison(G); Antetokounmpo(PG), Beverley(G), Collison(UTIL)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($11,100): If Russell Westbrook weren’t having the best season in the history of fantasy, Harden’s numbers would be looking great right about now. He is often overlooked, but the Beard is averaging 5.4x value on the season. Harden has put up 124.75 DraftKings points on this Spurs in two games this year. He shouldn’t have a problem hitting 5x value tonight.
DeMar DeRozan ($8,500): DeRozan should find plenty of open shots against the porous Nets. He has only scored under 20 points once this month. With him racking up that many points, topping 5x value is not very hard when you can rebound like DeRozan does. Don’t be surprised if he at least flirts with 6x value.
Honorable Mention:
C.J. McCollum ($7,000): C.J. has torched the Kings this year. He had 48.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting. You can expect a heavy dose of Lillard and McCollum again since it worked so well the first time around. McCollum’s shooting percentage is actually 2.4% higher on the road. His three point percentage is up nearly 4%. Maybe it’s a good think this is a road game!
Avery Bradley ($6,000): The Celtics are finally getting healthy, which has resulted in a bit of a step back for Bradley in fantasy. He still rebounds well enough to keep his floor high enough that he wont really hurt you, but his days of popping 60 DraftKings points are over. That said, The Grizzlies have struggled against shooting guards, so Bradley should at least get 5x value.
Dark Horses:
Rodney Hood ($5,400): Hood is reliant on scoring to keep his value, which makes him a bit of a risk because he does little else. He is prone to cold shooting nights like he was against Memphis on Sunday. That was supposed to be a good matchup. So is tonight’s against the Warriors, but Hood is far from a sure thing.
J.J. Redick ($4,300): The Nuggets are the worst in the league against shooting guards, and that’s exactly what Redick is. Redick plays 25 minutes and takes 15 shots. It’s what he does. His productivity can be volatile, but he is a cheap option buried in the pile who could really go off against a porous Denver D.
My pick: Harden(SG); McCollum(SG)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
Kevin Durant ($9,000): The Jazz are so tough on the perimeter that the scoring has to come from somewhere. The softest slot would seem to be SF where Durant is an absolute beast. Durant put up 47.25 DraftKings points in their first meeting of the year. Expect nothing less than that again tonight.
Paul George ($8,100): George has put up 90 DraftKings points over the last two games, so it seems as though his mini-slump last week is done for. The Knicks are the third worst team defending the small forward slot. No one should be surprised by that. George should be in the low 40’s at worst again tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Kawhi Leonard ($8,600): Leonard has put up 80.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Rockets so far this year. That leaves him a little under 5x value. The real reason for putting him down here is the fact that Leonard has only played more than 27 minutes in one of the last four games. Two of those were close. He seems to be resting in-game since he doesn’t sit out. That is a double edged sword for us daily fantasy types.
Gordon Hayward ($7,700): Hayward was out for the first meeting with Golden State. Will his presence affect Durant or vice versa? Signs point to no, as the Warriors are the fourth worst team against small forwards. Hayward struggled against Dallas and Oklahoma City, but was back on track on Sunday against Memphis, who is one of the best in the league against small forwards. His price may even be a little low for what he is capable of tonight.
Dark Horses:
Trevor Ariza ($5,100): Most of what Ariza does missing the stat sheets, but he has managed to put up 57.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Spurs this year. His main task is going to be containing Kawhi Leonard, which he has done a pretty good job of thus far. Ariza has seven steals in the two games against San Antonio.
Brandon Ingram ($4,200): Using rookies is always a risk, but with Luol Deng a game time decision against the worst team defending small forwards, Ingram could get a lot of run against a questionable defensive team. This looks very promising for Ingram, but he still carries a healthy helping of risk with him.
My Pick: Durant(SF); George(SF), Ingram(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bet:
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,800): He still has some clunkers like we saw when he was dominated by Green in Oakland last week, but the talent is there. He has another good matchup on paper tonight against the Pacers, who are fourth worst in the league against power forwards. Porzingis should have plenty of room to operate, and his price is low enough that he should be at least at 5x value.
Draymond Green ($7,500): Green scored just three points against Portland on Saturday, but he still racked up 40.5 DraftKings points. That kind of production makes Green matchup proof. He has only been held below 32 DraftKings points once in the last six weeks, and that was by Memphis. Utah is good up front, but they wont outmuscle him for rebounds or prevent him from passing at will.
Honorable Mention:
Anthony Davis ($11,700): The matchup looks right against the 76ers tonight, but Davis only got 46.75 DraftKings points against Philadelphia in the first meeting. That is a good total if he costs $9,000, but it is a disappointment at this price. And it wasn’t for lack of minutes. Davis played more than 40 minutes in that game. The Sixers are improving on the interior. There are too many red flags here for me to trust Davis.
Julius Randle ($5,800): Randle still struggles with consistency, but he did well over the weekend against Philadelphia and Cleveland, two teams that have been solid up front. Charlotte is still a work in progress in the middle, so Randle should be able to exploit that to his advantage.
Dark Horses:
Marreese Speights ($4,200): With Blake Griffin out, Speights should see a healthy increase in playing time, especially with the big bodies that Denver rolls out there. I expect Luc Richard Mbah a Moute to get most of the starts with Blake out, but on nights like tonight where the Clippers will face a lot of size, it would make sense for Speights to start. Make sure to keep an eye on the starting lineups for this one.
Channing Frye ($3,600): Kevin Love is sitting out again, so Frye will likely be the biggest beneficiary. At this low of a price, Frye looks like a nice bargain. He wont do much on the offensive end, but I would think that he can’t help but rebound and block his way to 18 DraftKings points if he plays 25 or more minutes.
Luis Scola ($3,000): With Justin Hamilton falling completely out of the rotation lately, it stands to reason that Scola will start with Brook Lopez resting tonight. Toronto is nearly as bad up front as the Nets are, so Scola could be the bargain of the night in all formats.
My pick: Frye(PF), Scola(F); Scola(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($11,200): Cousins has been under 4x value in three of his last four games after rattling off better than 5x value in eight straight. The matchup against Portland tonight does look like a good one. Cousins took them for 54.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting. That said, that total is still a shade under 5x value.
Hassan Whiteside ($8,700): Whiteside has five straight games of 42 or more DraftKings points, so he isn’t likely to disappoint. That said, Whiteside has thrown a few clunkers this year, but most of those have not been in good matchups. The Magic are 20th in the league in points allowed to centers, and they gave up 46 DraftKings points to Whiteside in the first meeting. 5x value looks obtainable here.
Honorable Mention:
Joel Embiid ($7,600): Embiid’s price makes it tougher for him to get value, but he is capable of big games. He still has not played 30 minutes in a game yet, but he has played 25 or more in every game since Thanksgiving. In 27 minutes against the Pelicans on December 8th, Embiid picked up 38.25 DraftKings points. That is right at 5x value.
DeAndre Jordan ($7,200): Do you remember what Jordan’s numbers looked like last year with Blake Griffin out? I do. This injury will give Jordan’s value a big boost, especially while his price is this low. Jordan had been trending upward anyway, topping 30 DraftKings points in each of his last 11 games. Jordan could be in line for a huge game against Denver tonight.
Nikola Jokic ($6,400): Jokic has had a nice run lately, topping 25 DraftKings points in every game since November 23rd. Jokic has had the occasional big night, but his value remains capped since he has not seen more than 28 minutes in any game this month. There are a lot of bodies up front for Denver, but Jokic is seeing the largest share of the minutes right now, and should until he cools off.
Dark Horses:
Nikola Vucevic ($6,200): It is hard to rely on someone who no longer starts, but he usually plays more minutes than starter Bismack Biyombo, and definitely provides more on the fantasy landscape. Vucevic picked up 44 DraftKings points against the Heat in the first meeting, but he also played 35 minutes in that one. Temper your expectations here since the minutes load likely wont be that high.
Jonas Valanciunas ($5,800): Valanciunas has ceded a lot of minutes to Lucas Nogueira lately, but he is still the bigger fantasy player. Therefore he deserves a look against the Nets. The Nets are awful already, but they are sitting the white-hot Brook Lopez for rest. Toronto is going to feast up front with Valanciunas the likely benefactor.
Montrezl Harrell ($3,300): Harrell’s per minute stats have been very good this year. Now he will get a chance to showcase what he can do since Clint Capela will miss a minimum of six weeks. Nene Hilario could see more minutes as the established veteran, but Harrell will still see an uptick in minutes and is the better fantasy option for the Rockets in Capela’s absence.
My pick: Jordan(C), Valanciunas(UTIL); Embiid(C)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend. We will also have the college football bowl picks against the spread. You don’t want to miss any of this!