Lauri Markkanen and the game of trade-offs

The NBA game, as an extension of the strengths and weaknesses of each individual player, is a game of trade-offs. The current Golden State Warriors are a fanciful outlier to the norm, which is that most teams are flawed, because most players are flawed. Few players are a plus in every capacity of the game — shooting, dribbling, passing, rebounding and defense, without any glaring negatives. Great players are typically great because they possess elite skills compared to replacement level players and skills that significantly outweigh any negative components, not because they are above average players across the board.

In the 2017 draft class, no one channels this sentiment more than 7-footer Lauri Markkanen.

Markkenen is really a walking trade-off. He’s a big man who has outlier floor spacing prowess and insane fluidity shooting off the dribble for his size. Floor spacing is a trait found in the elite offensive big man contributors in the NBA. However, due to lack of length (reported 7-foot wingspan) and vertical explosion Markkanen is a minus interior defender, and interior defense is the lifeblood of any NBA big man.

Read More: Which of Kentucky’s prized trio is the best NBA prospect?

Basically, projecting Markkanen’s NBA impact comes down to this — how can his considerable offensive skills be maximized to obtain full utility, mitigating the negatives on defense? He will need to be placed in a system surrounded by elite perimeter defenders to wall off penetration and keep offensive players away from the rim he can’t protect. He will also probably need to play the 5 a good amount to fully extract his shooting and agility with the ball attacking closeouts. It’s by no means an easy fit, but if a team can place him in a suitable situation there is obvious utility here, and perhaps considerable upside.

Markkanen simply has rare handling ability and special off-the-dribble shooting fluidity for his size. He has 10 finishing possessions as a pick-and-roll ball-handler this season, per Synergy Sports, and has made initiation plays off the dribble like the following drop-off pass rarely seen from 7-footers.

Markkanen’s body control and coordination shooting off the dribble is his blue chip, elite skill. Every foreign big who can shoot foolishly gets compared to Dirk Nowitzki, and while we likely will never see another Nowitzki, Markkanen actually has that fluid pull-up game component that most stretch bigs do not.

It’s just incredibly hard to guard a 7-footer who can do this.

Markkanen is 11-of-19 shooting off the dribble in the halfcourt this season, good for the 89th percentile, per Synergy. It’s not a large sample, but the eye test, like the following elbow jumper, really supports the notion he could be truly elite in this capacity for a big man.

Other stretch bigs like Frank Kaminsky were skilled floor spacers in college, but they didn’t have close to Markkanen’s fluidity shooting in these pull-up situations.

Markkanen pairs his outlier elite skill with a more frequently found floor spacing off-the-catch ability; he just does it with pristine efficiency. Markkenen is now 25-of-54 on 3s this season (46.3 percent), 47-of-56 from the foul line (83.9 percent) and sports an overall 64 true shooting percentage, per Sports-Reference.

His stroke is smooth and effortless, and he uses good preparatory footwork like in the following clip utilizing the 1-2 to step into a transition 3.

Markkanen really thrives in the pick-and-pop game, where he finishes 17 percent of his possessions, per Synergy. He has a fluid, compact release and minimal ball dip, and can set his feet quickly popping post-screen to get his shot off before his defender can cover the requisite ground to contest.

And again, with more range and feeling.

Markkanen projects as a deadly pick-and-pop threat at the next level, where the pick-and-roll is the fulcrum of basically every NBA offense. With how much NBA teams use “ICE” pick-and-roll defensive coverage now, bigs who can shoot 3s quickly popping out are basically unguardable. Markkanen fits this mold.

With his prowess shooting off the bounce and in pick-and-pop situations, it’s not surprising Markkanen also eviscerates defenses shooting off-the-catch. Thirty percent of his total finishing possessions this year are on spot ups with a 1.265 points per possession efficiency mark, good for the 88th percentile. He can shoot effortlessly over closeouts at his size, rendering him a spot-up nightmare.

Markkanen isn’t just a stationary spot-up shooter however, as he shows flashes of plus footwork again catching on the 1-2 but on the move this time.

It’s hard to craft a more reliable shooting profile for a big man, especially when buttressed by his U-20 FIBA efficiency numbers.

Floor spacing alone isn’t enough for bigs to garner sizable impact anymore. Bigs have to be able to put the ball on the floor attacking closeouts, and ideally have enough vision to pass the ball on the move. Markkanen is fluid attacking closeouts with his handle, and although he’s slow without much burst off the bounce (understandable for his size), he has impressive coordination.

He’s likely a better passer than his numbers bear out, although he does sport a promising 1.55 assist/turnover ratio. Here, he reads the dig defender on the move, making the simple yet correct decision kicking it out to the open shooter for the 3.

This is the kind of play you look for in perimeter big men — the ability to make decisions like this drop-off in traffic on the move.

It should be noted Markkanen is mostly a perimeter oriented big, some of that is due to Arizona’s lack of spacing in confining him to a wing role, and also some is due to his physical limitations.

Markkanen is not a vertical athlete, lacking the lift and explosiveness especially in tight spaces to finish over size and length. He sports just a 0.943 points per possession mark on half-court finishes around the basket, in the outlier poor 25th percentile, per Synergy. He doesn’t get to the rim often (only two unassisted makes this season per Hoop-Math), and when he does you can see the evident lack of vertical explosion.

It’s fair to question how he is going to finish in traffic and through contact at the next level.

He gets fouled here, but even on offensive rebound opportunities he lacks a quick second jump to beat defenders before they’re set.

Markkanen does have some touch around the rim and can shoot right over smaller players inside. But he’s not overly physical or tough, which combined with his lack of vertical pop will make runners and touch shots like this left-handed jump-hook paramount.

Markkanen has shown an ability to beat smaller players in the mid-post area at lower levels of play, possessing the ability to shoot over most mismatches. His ability to add strength and really anchor against switches will also be crucial to avoid teams outright switching in pick-and-roll if Markkanen can’t make them pay.

While there is reason for profound optimism in Markkanen’s offensive game, the other side of the ball is far more dicey. Markkenen has good size for either the 4 or 5 in the NBA, but has minus length with only a reported 7-foot-0 wingspan.

His lack of length is cringe worthy on film as a rim protector especially.

And again.

The stats support the eye test, as Markkanen is outlier poor at generating defensive events. His 0.8 steal percentage and 2.1 block percentage, per Sports-Reference, are both laughably bad. This is where the already insane Kristaps Porzingis comparisons fail miserably, as Markkanen is nowhere near the vertical athlete of Porzingis, nor does he have a 7-foot-7 wingspan.

Markkanen also doesn’t have a physically imposing frame, lacking the strength to present an obstacle to opposing dribble penetrators. Here, Miles Bridges easily goes right through him without getting dislodged after the initial spin move.

Markkanen’s one potential non-sieve defensive attribute could be his perimeter defense in space, which right now is best characterized as inconsistent. He has average to slightly above average feet for a big, but when combined with his lack of length hurts him on help and recover closeout situations like the following.

He’s inconsistent laterally, putting up encouraging flashes like the following clip against Bridges, a plus NBA athlete.

There are also discouraging flashes painting his lateral mobility in a more negative light against the same competition.

His ability to defend closeouts will largely be based on who he defends at the next level, 4s or 5s, but regardless it’s reasonable to have some trepidation about his upside in this capacity.

Markkanen lacks the plus change of direction and quick twitch athleticism that fellow European big man Dragan Bender is known for, disassociating him from that comparison as well. His defense in space and on switches especially is the most important facet of Markkanen’s defensive game to monitor moving forward, as it’s his only real avenue to carving out a semblance of defensive value.

As an off-ball defender, Markkanen hasn’t shown advanced instincts thus far. Here, he is charged with defending two players on the weakside after the trap in the post, and shows no awareness of the diving big man.

The following clip also shows Markkanen’s over-pursuit and lack of reactionary athleticism as he gets beat by Bridges on the back-cut.

Overall, Markkanen looks like an ace shooting prospect for a big, with outlier elite off the dribble shooting fluidity, handling prowess and some passing chops, which is a tantalizing package for the evolving importance of perimeter bigs.

Next: Six creative ways NBA teams are adapting the pick-and-roll

However, as high as his offensive ceiling may be, it will likely come at the cost of defense, especially on the interior protecting the rim. Markkanen isn’t a two-way unicorn prospect, nor is he a clean fit at any NBA position in non-special situations. Can he still be a plus NBA player? Absolutely. But he’s this draft’s biggest trade-off.