Just how impressive is Rex Pflueger’s turnover streak?
Rex Pflueger hasn’t turned the ball over this season. Is that as amazing as it sounds?
Notre Dame guard Rex Pflueger is in the midst of an incredible streak. Despite coming off the bench and averaging just the fifth-most minutes on his team, he has accomplished something arguably more impressive than anything his more-heralded teammates have: he has yet to commit a turnover this season. It is difficult to tune into a Notre Dame game now without hearing at least a couple mentions of it from the broadcast crew. Pflueger has played 211 total minutes, more than anyone else in the country with no turnovers — but just how impressive is it when put into context?
To start, taking a look at how much he does for the Irish could tell us a lot. In his 19 or so minutes per game on the court, he uses 11 percent of Notre Dame’s possessions, ranking 10th on his own team. When he is on the court, he isn’t exactly taking charge and running the team, instead fading into the background. He is a very good shooter, knocking down 45 percent of his triples on the year, so it makes sense that he would be spotting up around his more playmaking-oriented teammates. Since his limited minutes come mostly alongside his high-usage teammates, he doesn’t get as many shots up as some of the team’s other reserves who play on more bench-heavy units.
The 6’6” guard out of southern California doesn’t often handle the ball, either– he’s fourth on the team’s pecking order running the point behind teammates Matt Farrell, Temple Gibbs and Steve Vasturia. Accordingly, he ranks fourth on the team behind those three in assist rate, dishing out the dime on 14.6 percent of buckets while he’s on the floor according to KenPom. For a player who doesn’t get a lot of shot opportunities, not handling the ball often or creating shots for others means little involvement in the offense. So if Pflueger isn’t finishing a lot of possessions or initiating a lot of plays, is he really doing anything significant in Mike Brey’s offense?
Pflueger is still accruing some stats (5.1 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.8 APG), but his lack of involvement in the halfcourt leaves his turnover numbers artificially deflated. Per Synergy Sports, a whopping 39.5 percent of his finished possessions come in transition. Running in transition, the offense usually has a numbers advantage, leaving the player with the ball an easy decision to shoot or pass to an open teammate. That means turnover numbers are often very low in transition play for any player, so it makes sense that so many of Pflueger’s plays have come in that area.
Another 37.2% of his possessions came spotting up, getting ready to take an open shot without any dribbles after being set up by a teammate. Combined with his transition numbers, nearly 80 percent of his possessions are instances where he is presented with an easy decision to shoot or pass to the open man without taking any contested dribbles. Pflueger is taking advantage of his reduced role in the halfcourt and wreaking havoc in transition en route to putting together a long errorless streak.
Pflueger, however, isn’t the only player in the country to be without a turnover this season. One other– New Mexico center Obij Aget– also has zero turnovers while having played more than 40 percent of his team’s available minutes. As a reserve with a small role in his team’s offense, he profiles similar to Pflueger. He has played 208 minutes so far this season, just a few off Pflueger’s pace. While not turning it over through this point in the season is noteworthy, it is not peerless.
This is not all to say that Pflueger’s streak isn’t impressive — lots of players serve low-usage, defense-first roles getting even less minutes and still turn the ball over. What he is doing against a high level of competition is a great feat, but a closer look shows that it may need to be taken with a grain of salt.