Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 55 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 371.2 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Sunday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 12:00PM EST with 5 games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
First off – Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from Picks and Pivots! The NBA gives us a wildly entertaining five game NBA slate on Christmas day but it may be a bit tricky from a DFS perspective as we lock at noon EST which puts the later games at risk as we will surely not have all the injury and lineup news!
Also, full transparency, I am writing this article the day before these games take place as Christmas Morning I will be watching my children rip through gifts in mere seconds that my wife took hours to meticulously wrap and organize! It is Christmas tradition!
I hope you all get to spend some time with your family and friends this holiday season but if you need a break from tracking down AAA batteries for your kids toys or building insanely complicated Lego sets, than Picks and Pivots is ready to help break down this DFS slate!
Russell Westbrook ($12,600) Frankly, it does not matter when I write this article or even which slate we are playing, Westbrook is always going to be option #1 for our lineups!
On this short slate however, Westbrook is a must play for me and with the likelihood that Victor Oladipo remains out, he will be in every single one of my lineups. In the last four games. Westbrook is averaging an insane 69 FanDuel points and he gets a match-up against a Minnesota team that is 21st in DvP to opposing PG’s this season.
The marquee game may be between Golden State-Cleveland, but with the usage/fantasy production spread out between the stars, I am not sure there is any other player on this slate that can approach the FanDuel point output that Westbrook will put up tonight! Find the value elsewhere and lock in Mr. Triple Double on this short slate – Fade at your own risk!
Kyrie Irving ($8,000) With an NBA Final re-match that has a 223.5 combined team total we absolutely need to get exposure to this game but the question is going to be which players we pay up for. With the Big 3 in Cleveland and 4 superstars in Golden State it literally becomes a roll of the dice which of these 7 players will emerge with the most fantasy points!
The best place to attack the Warriors this season has been with opposing PG’s and Kyrie was able to rack up two 50+ FanDuel point outings against the Warriors in last year’s NBA Finals. Irving comes into this match-up with three 45+ FanDuel point outings in his last four games and is a great way to get elite GPP upside at a reasonable price in this match-up!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Klay Thompson ($6,200) The best place to attack the Cavaliers has been at the shooting guard position as they are ranked 25th in the NBA in DvP to opposing SG’s on the season. Klay is always a boom or bust GPP play due to his scoring dependency but he is also the most cost effective way to get exposure to the Warriors stars while allowing you to pay up for Westbrook!
Jamal Crawford ($4,300) The Clippers-Lakers game is the final game on this slate and we do not have a spread/total yet as we await the injury news on Chris Paul. After missing Friday night with a hamstring injury, CP3 is questionable for this game and I would assume the Clippers are overly cautious in this spot with Blake Griffin already out!
On Friday night, with Paul on the sidelines, Crawford was forced to play 30 minutes and put up 32.2 FanDuel points on the back of 10-16 shooting against Dallas. The Clippers get an elite match-up against a Lakers team that presents favorable DvP spots across the board including giving up the most fantasy points to opposing SG’s.
If CP3 is out again, Crawford becomes a must play but even with Paul in the lineup, Crawford should see 25+ minutes and has the elite scoring upside to crush GPP value!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Carmelo Anthony ($7,600) The Small Forward position is loaded for such a small slate with LeBron James and Kevin Durant going head to head as well as Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard in a game I am likely avoiding completely! The one player I am looking to target on this slate is Carmelo Anthony as he gets the opportunity to star in a nationally televised game at MSG on Christmas Day!
The Celtics are 24th in DvP to opposing SF’s on the season and last season against this Celtics team he was able to eclipse 40 FanDuel points in two of his four match-ups. The Knicks-Celtics game has a solid 212 combined team total so this is a spot we want exposure to, however keep in mind for GPP play that since they are the early game that the ownership percentages will likely be much higher due to their “lineup security.”
Luol Deng ($4,700) It seems crazy to say this, but Luol Deng has been one of the most consistent DFS options when looking to fill in your second SF spot on FanDuel with a bargain play! Deng has 20+ FanDuel points in each of his last 9 games and has played 30+ minutes in each of those contests.
Julius Randle is likely to be back on Sunday after the birth of his child so Deng, who had been playing the 4 while Randle was out, will move back to his SF spot for this game. This is actually adavantageous in this match-up as the best place to attack LAC is at the SF position where they are 15th in DvP.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Al Horford ($7,500) At the center spot we have a variety of top end options and with the value plays in murky spots, I will look to pay up to the high end here. With my PG positions firmly filled(sorry IT4), Horford is a great way to get exposure to this Celtics-Knicks game and should be able to exploit a NY team that is 28th in DvP to opposing centers this season!
Horford has exceeded 40 FanDuel points in three of his last five games and on FanDuel where he is priced between Karl-Anthony Towns and DeAndre Jordan, I expect he will be over looked which gives us a great pivot off the higher owned stars!
Gorgui Dieng ($5,600) The Minnesota starting five are all firmly in play on this slate and they get an up-tempo match-up against OKC and the best part is that they all are guaranteed major run as the Wolves very rarely utilize their bench for any material amount of time! With KAT in a tough match-up against Steven Adams, I like the idea of targeting Dieng who should be able to pick up rebounds in this fast paced, offensive affair!
Dieng is a relatively safe option on this slate as he consistently racks up between 25 and 30 FanDuel points so the GPP upside is not necessarily there, but his price point allows you to build a safe floor and target your upside in other spots!
Domantas Sabonis ($3,500) On Friday Night, I sat down and watched the OKC-Boston game because frankly anytime Russell Westbrook is on TV, it becomes appointment television! What struck me in this game was how effective Sabonis was as a spot up shooter and how much Westbrook utilized him as a kick-out option when he penetrated the defense.
Sabonis racked up 23.7 FanDuel points on the back of 20 actual points so he is clearly highly scoring dependent but at minimum price, he is a phenomenal value. With Oladipo out of the OKC lineup, the offense is essentially Westbrook, Westbrook and more Westbrook but his ability to get into the lane with such force frees up shooters like Sabonis to knock down open 3’s when the defense collapses.
Next: Happy Holidays from Fantasy CPR
Have a very Merry Christmas and enjoy the entire day of FanDuel NBA action! We will see you back here on Monday for all the fantasy basketball and DFS contests!