MLB 2017: One prediction for each team

New York Yankees: Gary Sanchez comes back down to earth

In his two months with the Yankees last year, Gary Sanchez put up the type of numbers no rookie in MLB history has ever even come close to touching. In only 53 games, he hit 20 home runs and compiled an OPS of 1.032. A third of his hits left the yard, for crying out loud. Sanchez homered every 10 at-bats.

Sanchez had an impossibly good start to his career, and was able to finish second in the Rookie of the Year vote despite playing in less than a third of his team’s games. He set the bar ridiculously high for his first full year in the big leagues. There will be a drop in his numbers as the league figures him out, but how far remains to be seen.

After batting .389/.458/.832 in August, Sanchez dropped off to .225/.314/.520 in September. In the final month of his season, he was still hitting home runs, but the strikeouts started piling up at a much faster clip. It only took a month for the best pitchers in the world to figure out where to attack the rookie.

Over a full 162-game schedule, Sanchez may very well come close to hitting 40 home runs, but his batting average will recede down into the .260-.275 range. He still needs to work on developing his ability to work an at-bat and lay off pitcher’s pitches. As a rookie, most pitchers were willing to challenge him, and the fact the Yankees were beginning to rebuild gave them more willingness to attack. The league adjusted to Sanchez, and next year it will be up to him to make his own adjustments. The Ruthian start to his career has set the bar in the stratosphere, unfairly so. If Sanchez doesn’t hit 40 home runs or slug over .600, his 2017 won’t necessarily be a disappointment.