MLB 2017: One prediction for each team

Philadelphia Phillies: Clay Buchholz proves to be a valuable investment

No pitcher in the American League has been a bigger enigma to his fanbase than Clay Buchholz was to the Fenway faithful. He threw a no-hitter in his rookie year and carried a sub-2.00 ERA for over 100 innings in 2013. Buchholz also had three seasons where he failed to make 20 starts, has never made more than 30 starts, had a season with an ERA over 5.00 and two more with ERAs over 4.50.

Buchholz was supposed to be an ace in Boston, but was maddeningly inconsistent. Through 10 years, he has an 81-61 record and a 3.96 ERA. Those are perfectly acceptable numbers for a number-four starter, but the Red Sox expected so much more from him. A change of scenery and a league switch will do him well.

The first half was ugly for Buchholz last year. He pitched in 18 games and had a 5.91 ERA. He eventually accepted a demotion to the bullpen, worked things out, and went 5-1 in the second half with a 3.22 ERA. His biggest problem was pitching at Fenway Park, as he finished with a 5.60 ERA at home and allowed 14 home runs in only 72.1 innings. On the road, Buchholz was much better.

The Phillies are hoping they get the good Clay Buchholz for a few months before flipping him to a contender for prospects. They almost pulled off a similar move last year with Jeremy Hellickson, but couldn’t find the right package on the trade market. Hellickson proved that even the best laid plans sometimes go for naught by accepting the qualifying offer. The Phillies won’t make the same mistake twice, and will eventually sell Buchholz for more prospects to help their rebuild.