Josh Hart is a Super’Nova
It almost didn’t happen.
Josh Hart – likely the best all-around player on a newly minted national championship winner – had a choice to make. In the wake of The Shot, Hart took advantage of the newly extended deadline for early entry players to explore his NBA chances. He declined to hire an agent, thus maintaining his eligibility to return to school for his senior year. After working out for the Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs and Philadelphia 76ers (among others), the general consensus he was hearing: maybe the late 1st round, and definitely the early 2nd. In a relatively weak draft -and right before a potentially loaded one – it was a tough call to make. Return to work on what scouts were nitpicking in his game, with a real chance to contend for back-to-back titles? Or, with the combination of the 2017 draft’s purported strength and another year on the wrong side of the ledger in the age curve, pursue his NBA dream now?
As we know, Josh Hart ultimately decided to pull out of the NBA Draft and return to Villanova for his final year. While much of the squad remained intact, with the graduation of two senior leaders in Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu (the starting point guard and center, respectively), Hart was going to be asked to help fill a large void, both on and off the court.
So, uh, that on-court part has worked out. Currently averaging over 20 points a game (on shooting splits of 56.0%/43.3%), along with 6.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists and over a steal per game, Hart has morphed into a full-blown superstar for Villanova, which currently sits at 12-0 and No. 1 in both the AP and Coaches’ Poll. The combination of his stellar play and Villanova’s status as one of the best teams in the country has him as the early frontrunner for the ‘subjective’ national player of the year awards. The same combination has him well ahead in more objective measures, as well – Ken Pomeroy’s Player of the Year Standings currently has him above second place by about the same margin that separates 2nd place and 10th.
At this current point in the season, it’s hard to argue with his standing – or the margin. He’s simply been the best player (by far) on the best team (not as far). So instead of considering who the other contenders are right now – and I’m quite sure there will be other great arguments (and articles!) as the season moves forward – let’s celebrate the player Hart has been, and how he gets there.
With stats, of course.
Offensive Efficiency vs. Usage
One of the more fundamental axioms of basketball analytics is that as usage goes up (very generally, defined as the number of possessions used, via shots, turnovers, free throws, etc. by a player – the calculations are often slightly different among sources), efficiency usually goes down. Well, so far this year, Josh Hart is bucking this trend, and in a big way. Check out this quick comparison table between last year and this year.
*KenPom methodology
He’s actually upped his efficiency enormously while handling a larger offensive load. While Hart doesn’t quite reach superstar usage levels – considered 28% or more by KenPom’s algorithms – he’s the highest on his team by a pretty significant margin (other than Eric Paschall, a backup wing/big who maintains a high usage % in his 18 minutes per game). The gap’s even more pronounced in percentage of shots taken – Hart sits at 27.0% while he’s on the floor, higher than the next player (playing more than half the team’s minutes) by 3.5%.
Hart has managed incredible efficiency on the possessions he’s used. Per KenPom’s ‘individual offensive rating’s calculation, which is based on methodology described in Dean Oliver’s Basketball on Paper, Hart is scoring 137.80 points per 100 possessions. The number is frankly unprecedented for a high usage player; in KenPom’s database, which extends back to the 2003-04 season, there appear to be only three players who have managed offensive ratings above 130 while using more than 24% of a team’s possessions: Thomas Walkup (2015-2016, at Stephen F. Austin), Noah Dahlman (2011-2012, at Wofford) and TJ Bray (2014-2015, at Princeton).
That’s staggering. Of course, I do need to clarify that the season isn’t even halfway over and the competition level on a day-to-day basis is about to jump up during Big East play. It would be really tough to maintain that level. Still, Hart is currently playing individual offense at a level that’s never been topped over a full college season. Let’s jump a bit into how.
The Shooting Splits
First, a picture – I’m sure you’re getting tired of words.
As always, look to the bottom here for an explanation of shot chart methodology. Villanova is currently missing their games with UCF and Charleston from the data source.
He’s been very solid from 3 this year, hitting 23 of 52 (44.23%) in the logged games (26 of 60 overall, good for 43.3%), though clearly much better from the wings than from above the break. Hart went through an offseason refashioning of his shooting motion – while his shot had been going down just fine (he hit 40.23% over his sophomore and junior campaigns from deep) the form was a bit clunky relative to the ideal. The work appears to have paid off in both form and results so far this year; his referenced percentage is about 8% points better than last year, and his stroke looks much smoother. And, per Synergy Sports, he’s been excellent on catch-and-shoot opportunities from 3. He’s hit 18 of his 35 opportunities, for 54 points (and 1.543 PPP, in the 94th percentile of all players).
Conversely, he’s been pretty terrible from the mid-range, clanking his way to a 6-for-22 (27.27%) showing from the short and long mid-range. He did do quite well from these areas last year, hitting 41.8% of all shots classified as two-point jumpers (D-I average is ~35.5%), so it’s possible he’s due for an uptick to respectable there.
Much of this is likely due to his pull-up game. Per Synergy Sports, Hart has hit only 11 of his 33 shots taken off the dribble, for a total of 24 points. While I don’t have data on whether the misses were from 3 or 2, only two of the makes noted in that 11 were 3’s, while nine of the makes were twos. He’s comfortably below average here, scoring 0.727 PPP, good for the 41st percentile of all players logged with such opportunities.
Good lord, though: the paint. The 6-foot-5 wing is currently hitting 82.35% of his shots from within five feet of the rim, and he’s taken a lot of them. Per hoop-math’s logs, Hart has taken 34.7% of his shots as a layup, tip-in or dunk, and made 82.70% of them. This is right in line with the more exact shot locations above – the region within five feet of the basket comprises 38.63% of Hart’s overall logged shot attempts.
A Burgeoning Playmaker
This is connected to his improved prowess in creation, in more ways than one. Ball-handling and playmaking, based on context clues from Hart’s own quotes and articles from connected reporters, were two correlated areas NBA scouts and executives thought he could advance in his senior campaign.
His handle has meaningfully improved since last year, simply judging by the eye test. Hart has been notably more comfortable sizing players up off the dribble, and maintaining control through traffic. One method of measuring this through available NCAAB statistics is how many unassisted rim attempts he generates. Take a look at this quick chart showing his unassisted attempts at the rim this year.
This sort of on-your-own creation level in the half-court is solidly above average for a wing in college (and currently above two heralded point guard prospects in Malik Monk and Lonzo Ball).
However, another good chunk of Hart’s overall unassisted baskets have been created in transition. A notable number of these have occurred after he grabs a rebound and charges toward the poor defenders on the other end.
Take a look at the chart below:
This analysis reflects the possessions in which Hart both grabs the rebound, and is the first person to take an unassisted shot/free throw at the other end. In the eight possessions in which Hart finished a possession within 10 seconds of grabbing a defensive rebound, twenty three points were scored – an incredible average of 2.13 per possession. None of these attempts were assisted – which means, in all likelihood, that Hart ran this possession from start to finish, grabbing the defensive rebound on his own, sizing up his defender and attacking the defense before it gets set on the other end. Check out this video from DraftExpress for some real time examples of his skill attacking after a rebound. Obviously, eight possessions isn’t a huge chunk of the 170 possessions he’s used this season, however, it does comprise 8 percent of his total at-the-rim attempts on the season.
Hart has also dished five of his assists in these situations, after a grab-n-go on a defensive rebound. This connects to Hart’s improved vision and passing skills this year – more on this in a second – but also a value to the team. As detailed in a post for Nylon Calculus (and on reddit), there is value in an attacker/playmaker grabbing a rebound to push up the floor (and, as noted in twitter conversations about the same, potentially part of the reason TRB%*AST% pops up in all-in-one stat regressions so often). Josh Hart is and has been one of the best rebounders on Villanova for years (he has grabbed 17.1% and 18.5% of available defensive rebounds in the last two years, and hit 10% of available offensive rebounds as a sophomore) while serving as a de facto backup power forward for ‘Nova’s smaller-leaning lineups. His expanding confidence in his drive and dish game has only made this a more dangerous part of Villanova’s offense.
Connecting back to his improved passing vision, though! He’s made a massive leap in playmaking this year, jumping from 1.9 to 3.7 assists per game and an assist percentage of 12.4% to 22.4% (which is good for 342nd best in the country). While Hart has always been outstanding at taking care of the ball, with a career turnover percentage of 10.4%, this has at least been partially connected to his unwillingness to throw passes that could lead to an assist. Prior to this year, his assist rate had never climbed above 12.4%.
Hart has been asked to take a significant playmaking role on this year’s team, though, even running pick and rolls to initiate offense for the team. Per Synergy Sports, nearly 30 percent (52 of 177) of his overall possessions have come with him as the pick-and-roll ball handler. He’s been quite efficient finishing in this situation, too, scoring 49 points on 20-of-42 shooting (0.942 PPP, good for the 79th percentile among PnR ball handlers).
Even if we held his total projected games to thirty, Hart would set a career-high in assists by a whopping 35. While some of this is certainly related to Phil Booth’s (a combo guard who serves as the team’s backup point guard) extended absence due to injury, Hart has quite simply stepped up his game. Even better, he’s almost exclusively dishing these assists to the highest value areas. Take a look at this snapshot from hoop-math.com:
Just 4.5% of his total assists (or, 2 of them) have come on a 2-point jumper. The rest are on 3s and rim attempts. And that guy (Jalen Brunson) you see above him in that table? He’s the team’s only real point guard at the moment, and Hart is nipping right at his distribution heels. Take a look at this ‘shot chart’, which graphically shows what you see above (where Josh’s assists have been distributed).
Hart’s also been judicious in his distribution; he’s handed out an assist to every one of Villanova’s rotation players (besides Phil Booth, who hasn’t played since the third game), and in generally equal numbers. Take a look at the chart below to see his distribution by player (and zone).
He’s been especially key to setting up Kris Jenkins for 3s, and the 13 assists above comprise 40.63% of Jenkins’s total makes on the year.
Finally, Some Defense
While Hart’s offense has been amazing, and the (rightful) focus of much of his hype and this article, he’s also a consistently solid contributor on the defensive end. In Villanova’s switch-heavy, small-ball setup, Hart is often asked to guard positions 1 through 4 in any given game. His solid 215-pound frame and decent (if unremarkable) 6-foot-8 wingspan allows him to hold up well against most college 3s and 4s, even if he’s probably best served matching up against opposing shooting guards. And he’s one of Villanova’s better on-ball defenders, well-suited to staying in front of quicker 1 and 2 guards he’s asked to check.
While his block rate is middling for elite college wings, he’s got decent hands and a consistently solid nose for the ball, with a career steal rate around 2.2% (per KenPom’s calculations). He also does good work navigating screens, and has corrected an early career habit of falling asleep in off-ball defensive situations. Villanova’s scheme asks everyone to be smart and timely in their help defense, and he has continued to improve in this respect throughout his career.
His biggest contribution on defense is likely his excellent rebounding, however. As mentioned above, his defensive rebounding percentages have been excellent for a wing – he has hauled in, per KenPom’s calculations, 18.5% of available defensive rebounds (while he’s on the floor) this year. This, along with Villanova’s solid yearly defensive ratings, have likely been the biggest contributors to Hart’s consistently solid Defensive Box Plus-Minus (he’s averaged ~+4.0 BPM for the last 3 years).
The defensive contributions he provides separate him from other recent (non-big) perimeter players. Josh’s +4.2 Defensive Box Plus-Minus would rank as the 3rd highest in the last 7 years (behind Frank Kaminsky and Anthony Davis, both centers), and would beat out the next highest ‘perimeter player’ DBPM by nearly 2 points per 100 possessions (Trey Burke’s +2.3). Hart, while he is putting on an offensive season for the ages, is a well-rounded contributor on both ends of the floor.
Wrapping Up
What we’ve been watching so far has been an all-time collegiate season by one of the better college players in recent history. College basketball fans mostly everywhere (other than, probably, the Big East and the other heavyweights expected to contend for the title this year) are lucky to have one more year watching Josh Hart.