DraftKings NBA Picks for December 29
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for December 29
We have six games in the NBA tonight. Should we use Westbrook against Memphis as the cornerstone of our DraftKings lineups, or is there a better option?
Don’t forget to follow @fantasycpr on Twitter for lineup updates as we get them leading to the tipoffs of the games! I am not always able to get back in here and fix my picks when someone sits for the night, but we will update it on Twitter.
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I am going to change one little thing. I usually create two DraftKings lineups, so I am going to start posting the both of them since the one I post usually winds up being the lower scoring of the two.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Kyle Lowry ($8,500): Once again, we have another lower priced option with a tantalizing matchup opposing the most automatic DFS player on the planet. It is to the point where nearly 50% of all lineups use Westbrook. That means Lowry wont be as heavily owned, and he has a great matchup against Phoenix. Will he hit 60 DraftKings points? No. But he could hit 50, which is nearly 6x value.
Isaiah Thomas ($7,700): Thomas has slowed down a bit lately, but he did put up 41.25 DraftKings points on Cleveland in their first meeting. The fact remains that Thomas has the longest streak of 20+ point scoring games (16) in the league. That makes him a very low-risk option.
Honorable Mention:
Russell Westbrook ($12,700): Okay, first thing first: the Grizzlies have allowed the least fantasy points to point guards this season. Of course, Westbrook took on another team in the top five on Tuesday (Miami) and still put up 67.75 DraftKings points. As impossible as it seems, Westbrook still has at least 5x value in six consecutive games. It’s hard not to use him, but this is Memphis.
Tyler Johnson ($5,400): Even if Goran Dragic returns tonight, the fact that it was back spasms that sidelined him is concerning. Sometimes those linger. Even if they don’t, Dragic likely wont be thrown right back into 35 minutes a game now that he doesn’t have to be. Expect Johnson to see plenty of run, which leaves him as a nice bargain at this price.
Dark Horses:
Andrew Harrison ($4,800): This pick hinges on the availability of Mike Conley. He is still listed as questionable. If Conley sits again, Harrison is a must-play. He racked up 30.75 DraftKings points on Tuesday when Conley was scratched. He has an even better matchup tonight against Oklahoma City if Conley sits.
Brandon Knight ($4,200): Knight is shooting nearly 55% from the floor over the last fortnight, so even in limited minutes off the bench, he is lighting up the scoreboard. He can put up points in a hurry, and is a great source of value if you need to go cheap to pay for Westbrook.
My pick: Lowry(PG); Westbrook(PG), Johnson(G), Knight(SG)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
DeMar DeRozan ($8,300): The up-tempo style of the Suns should increase the value of DeRozan, who is much more than just a guy who stands at the three point line and shoots. DeRozan is a creator, and he will have plenty of opportunities to do just that against Phoenix. He is riding a streak of three straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points, and in six of his last seven. He should extend that streak tonight.
Avery Bradley ($6,100): Bradley picked up where Thomas left off against Memphis. He notched 43.5 DraftKings points against a solid defense. In the first meeting against Cleveland, Bradley racked up 44.5 DraftKings points. He shouldn’t have a problem reaching 5x value tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Nicolas Batum ($7,800): Batum has been hot from the field over the last three games, hitting 22 of 43 shots (54%). That has led to 147.75 DraftKings points in that three game span. In the first meeting with Heat, he was held under 30 DraftKings points, but his recent hot streak makes him worth considering on a short slate.
Lou Williams ($5,200): Williams has a slow start on Tuesday against Utah, but he still ended up with 5x value when the dust cleared. His minutes and shots have remained consistent even with the Lakers mostly healthy, so that makes him less of a risk than some of his counterparts. He has a solid matchup with Dallas tonight, a team that he put up 27.5 DraftKings points on in their first meeting.
Dark Horses:
Josh Richardson ($5,000): Richardson is still playing a ton of minutes with Dion Waiters out, and as we saw on Tuesday, he can really light up the scoreboard in a hurry. He is still very inconsistent, but Richardson has more upside than anyone at this price at any position. He has a great matchup against Charlotte, who is second worst in the league against shooting guards. It’s looking like another good night for Richardson.
Seth Curry ($4,100): Curry torched the Lakers for 41.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. The return of Devin Harris has limited Curry’s value some, but he still has three straight games of over 5x value. Judging by what he did against the Lakers in the first meeting, he should be over that mark again.
My pick: Bradley(SG), Richardson(G); N/A
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($10,100): The Celtics are in the top five of the league against opposing small forwrads. LeBron racked up 59.75 DraftKings points on the Celtics in the first meeting. You don’t need me to tell you that LeBron is matchup proof. The thing here is that Boston should keep this game close enough that James and the rest of Cleveland’s starters will have to play in the high 30’s in minutes if they want to win this game. That lessens the chances of any of them giving you a lackluster total.
Gordon Hayward ($8,100): When Hayward is on, he is capable of putting up over 50 DraftKings points. He did against the Lakers on Tuesday. The issue here is that Hayward is not the most consistent guy you can find. He managed 37.5 DraftKings points against the 76ers in the first meeting. If he does that again, it will quality as a bit of a disappointment when you pay this for him.
Honorable Mention:
Luol Deng ($5,500): Deng turned in his sixth straight game of more than 5x value and tenth of his last 11 games. Deng is getting over 30 minutes per game, and while he is no longer an elite player, he is still a very capable scorer and rebounder. His ceiling is relatively low, but he has a very high floor. That isn’t always easy to find at this price range.
James Johnson ($5,100): Johnson’s ability to play either forward slot has really helped increase his minutes with Josh McRoberts and Wayne Ellington out. Ellington is back now, but McRoberts remains out. Johnson is on quite a roll right now, racking up at least 5x value in seven of his last eight games. Expect another strong effort tonight against Charlotte.
Dark Horses:
T.J. Warren ($4,900): Warren is showing no ill effects of the head injury that cost him 13 games earlier this month. Warren lit up the Spurs last night, and has a chance to do that against a Toronto team that has struggled against small forwards. Warren is still mostly a scorer so there is risk involved, but like he showed last night, he has a high ceiling.
Robert Covington ($4,800): Covington has shaken off a dreadful November to regain his slot in the Philadelphia rotation. Covington has 12 straight games of 20 or more DraftKings points, but only three of those games have seen him top the 30 point threshold. He is a solid, yet unspectacular, option.
My Pick: James(SF), Johnson(F), Deng(UTIL); Johnson(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Kevin Love ($8,200): Love has shown remarkable consistency, hitting at least 34 DraftKings points in every game since Thanksgiving. Of course, that isn’t always 5x value. Boston held him just under (37.5 DraftKings points) in their first meeting. You know that Love wont turn in a score that destroys your lineup, but he may hit you with a score that will require some other piece of your lineup to go above and beyond.
Julius Randle ($6,500): Randle turned in one of his better games of the season against one of the best frontcourts in the league on Tuesday night. I wouldn’t go as far as to say that Randle has “arrived,” but I am much less apprehensive about using him now. Randle has turned in five straight outings of more than 30 DraftKings points. He has a solid matchup against Dallas tonight, but Nowitzki is back, which could limit his value.
Honorable Mention:
Zach Randolph ($5,200): Even though Randolph is no longer the starter, he consistently outperforms JaMychal Green. The veteran has embraced his bench role this year, and is thriving in his new role after a disappointing 2015-16 season. Randolph is one of the safer options out there, but he lacks high upside because he is not playing starter minutes.
Ersan Ilyasova ($4,900): With Joel Embiid resting tonight, it will open up more minutes for Ilyasova and Richaun Holmes if he passes the concussion tests. Ilyasova has been the far more consistent option since arriving from Oklahoma City. He has not been under 20 DraftKings points in a game in Philadelphia. Even though that is below where you want him, there are too many options at this price that turn in single digit games. Ilyasova gives you a little peace of mind, and he should see a nice uptick in minutes tonight.
Dark Horses:
Dirk Nowitzki ($4,300): Dallas is inching their aging veteran back into duty, which makes this a largely inadvisable play. The only thing we know for sure is that Dirk likely wont play more than 20 minutes. But he could play as little as 12-15. When he is in there, he is still a good shooter and rebounder, but how much of a risk are you willing to take?
Amir Johnson ($4,000): Johnson has turned in four straight games of more than 5x value. The Celtics frontcourt is still mostly unsettled. So long as Johnson is playing well, he should continue to see 25 minutes a game. When he does, he is a lock for 5x value.
Derrick Favors ($3,900): Favors topped 20 minutes for the first time since his return on Thursday. He responded with a solid 18.5 DraftKings points. Utah could decide to increase his minutes a little more tonight. If they do, he is an absolute steal.
My pick: Ilyasova(PF); Randle(PF), Favors(F)
Center
Best Bets:
Rudy Gobert ($7,400): Gobert has established himself as a force with Derrick Favors out. Favors is not playing enough minutes yet to disrupt Gobert’s play thus far, so he should be a safe play against Philadelphia. He only put up 22.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting, but he also played just 20 minutes. he likely wont be limited tonight, so 5x vlaue seems likely.
Hassan Whiteside ($8,600): Whiteside has the potential to be the biggest scorer out there on nearly any night, but he still throws some clunkers out there like he did against the Thunder on Tuesday. Whiteside put up 43.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting against Charlotte this year, which is still below 5x value. For this reason, he is not my top option tonight, but I can’t blame anyone for using him.
Honorable Mention:
Enes Kanter ($5,100): Memphis has made some very good centers look below average, so this pick worries me some. On the other hand, Kanter has four straight games of 6x value. Even if Memphis limits his current production, which they will, I still like his chances of at least getting close to 5x value.
Cody Zeller ($4,900): Zeller dislocated his ring finger last night, but did return to the game. I would expect him to play his normal 25-30 minutes tonight. Zeller has stabilized his production lately, hitting 5x value in eight of his last nine games if you exclude last night’s injury limited one. Zeller only put up 20.75 DraftKings points against the Heat in the first meeting, but he also only played 23 minutes. He should hit 5x value tonight so long as his finger is okay.
Dark Horses:
Tristan Thompson ($4,700): Thompson has been impressive when the matchup is right. He put up 43.5 DraftKings points on Boston in the first meeting, but the Celtics were missing Al Horford in that game. That should temper Thompson’s upside some, but considering he only needs 23.5 DraftKings points for 5x value, he is a safe pick even with Horford in there.
Alex Len ($3,600): Once again, Len is trending upward. Len has at least 5x value in five of his last six games despite playing more than 20 minutes only once in that span. He has outplayed Tyson Chandler lately, but his ceiling will remain low unless he somehow supplants Chandler as the starter. We aren’t there yet, but Len has great potential against a mostly weak Toronto interior.
My pick: Thompson(C); Gobert(C), Thompson(UTIL)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend. We will also have the college football bowl picks against the spread. You don’t want to miss any of this!