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College Basketball: Who reigns supreme in Big Ten?

By Charlie Maikis

Dec 28, 2014; Madison, WI, USA; The Big Ten Conference logo on the Kohl Center Court during pre-game warm-ups before the Wisconsin Badgers take to the floor to play the Buffalo Bulls at the Kohl Center. Mandatory Credit: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 28, 2014; Madison, WI, USA; The Big Ten Conference logo on the Kohl Center Court during pre-game warm-ups before the Wisconsin Badgers take to the floor to play the Buffalo Bulls at the Kohl Center. Mandatory Credit: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports /
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The top of the Big Ten sees three teams clustered together, but who is the best college basketball team in the conference?

At the outset of conference play, the top of the Big Ten is a jumbled mess. In the Week 8 AP Poll, the top three teams in the conference are Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana ranked 14, 15, and 16 respectively. Though there’s no clear-cut elite team, those teams give the Big Ten a tough trio at the top. But which one is the best? Let’s take a closer look at each team before deciding which stands above the rest and who has the chops to make an extended postseason run.

Indiana

The Hoosiers are one of the most vexing teams in college basketball. Their resume makes it incredibly difficult to judge them with wins over top contenders like Kansas and North Carolina but losses to the likes of Fort Wayne and Nebraska. To figure this team out, we’ll need to find out why they are plagued by such inconsistency.

Indiana’s bread and butter is on the offensive end of the court. One of the top offensive teams in the nation, they have the tenth-most efficient offense in the country per Kenpom and score 1.02 points per possession per Synergy Sports. Big man Thomas Bryant is the engine that makes them go. He is a beast in the paint who spends most of his time on offense posting up. Constantly commanding double teams, he creates open men around the perimeter which allows Indiana, a team that uses more than 25 percent of its possessions spotting up, to do what they do best. Not only does he anchor their half court offense, but he is one of the better big men in the country when running in transition. Despite being 6’10” and 245 pounds, he runs the floor smoothly and is often one of the first players down the floor. Making a beeline to the rim, he draws in defenders like in the half court, giving the Hoosier shooters space to spread the floor and get good looks.

While the three-point shot is a potent weapon, it is a highly volatile shot that can cause Indiana problems. While they shoot over 40 percent as a team from three, they have shot below 30% from the arc in a game two times and both of them were losses, to Fort Wayne and Butler. Inconsistency with the three-point shot doesn’t just plague them on the offensive end of the court either. Allowing opponents to shoot just 28.5 percent from three (14th nationally per Kenpom), they are one of the best at running shooters off the line and contesting shots. In two of their losses, though, they were not as disciplined and Butler and Nebraska shot 47.6 percent and 50.0 percent from downtown. Relying so much on three pointers gives Indiana a high ceiling and low floor. With a lot of talent they usually make a lot of them, but if they go cold it can allow the other team to hang in the game and pull out a win.

Purdue

The Boilermakers have had a very consistent season thus far, with their only two losses coming to top-10 teams Villanova and Louisville. While they’ve only had one win over a Kenpom top-50 team (Notre Dame), they have often looked dominant rolling through weaker competition. With just one good win and no bad losses to look at, where does Purdue stand?

Similar to Indiana, Purdue is a very good offensive team built from the inside out. Starting with big men Caleb Swanigan, who has played like one of the best players in the country this year, and 7’2″ Isaac Haas, they have the size to overpower just about any team in the country. Profiling similar to Indiana, head coach Matt Painter lets Swanigan go to work in the post and surrounds him with shooters ready to fire when the defense sends a double team. A 45 percent shooter from deep, Swanigan has the offensive game to play next to Haas, and that is where the Boilers’ real boon is. Playing the giants together makes them a force on defense as they are able to wall off the paint and dominate the boards. With both Swanigan and Haas sporting defensive ratings below 90, opponents can struggle to get the offense going when Painter plays them together. While the twin towers are almost always a positive for the Boilermakers, they can also be a weakness when the right team comes along.

Where Purdue has tended to struggle this season is against small lineups. If an opponent can play small and fast, they can run right by Purdue’s traditional two-big lineups. While Swanigan and Haas dominate the paint and own teams on the glass, teams that spread the floor can spread them out and force them to defend on the perimeter where they are not as comfortable. It’s no surprise, then, that two of their biggest struggles came against Villanova, a team that owns a small-ball death lineup, and Notre Dame, whose offense resembles one of the modern NBA. While they did beat Notre Dame, the Irish had a commanding 14-point lead at the half after running circles around the Swanigan-Haas pairing. While this is fairly small as far as weaknesses go, it’s one that can be fatal, against the right competition. Going forward, Painter will have to figure out how to adjust and win games against teams that try to run them off the floor.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin has been one of the most consistent teams in the nation for several years, and this season is no different. Owners of just two losses to top teams Creighton and UNC, they’ve beaten everyone they should have and have had several stand-out efforts. Like Purdue, they don’t have many good wins, but taking down solid teams like Syracuse and Oklahoma by big margins helps their brand. While they have been able to handle good teams, they haven’t been able to take down a top contender. So have the Badgers hit their ceiling, or do they have another gear?

Wisconsin is a balanced team, ranking in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to Kenpom. Their success is built on the foundation of experience as their two leading scorers are seniors Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes. Aside from just those two, they ranking number one in Kenpom’s Minutes Continuity, a measure that determines what percentage of a team’s minutes are played by the same player season over season. Doing just about everything well, it can be tough to throw the veteran Badgers off their game. They share the ball well and take good care of possession on offense. Defensively, they show their discipline and continuity by almost never fouling, thereby limiting their opponent’s free points from the charity stripe. They are a team who knows their strengths, sticks to the game pl and plays team basketball.

While the spread-the-wealth strategy is great for building a solid team, not having a go-to player can make it tough on Greg Gard’s team in tight games against elite competition. In situations like that where the opponent is locking in down the stretch, teams often look to their star player to get them a bucket or to anchor the team. While Indiana and Purdue have guys like Bryant and Swanigan, Wisconsin’s closest bet is Nigel Hayes. Last year, however, Hayes tried to be that player and watched his effective field goal percentage drop ten points below his worst mark otherwise in his worst year in a Badger uniform. Just as their strength lies in playing off each other and continuity, when they go away from that style it can turn into a big weakness. Not having that star-caliber player could come back to hurt Wisconsin, especially in the postseason when the stakes are so much higher.

Where does that leave us?

All three of these teams are in the upper echelon of the college basketball world, that much is clear. Who is best between them is a loaded question. When they play their best, Indiana has shown they can hang with the best of teams. They appear to have the highest ceiling of any team in the Big Ten, but their bouts of inconsistency mean nothing can happen. Wisconsin has the team-first style and veteran leadership to weather a long, tough season. The question will remain though whether they have the talent to take it to national title contenders.

That leaves us with Purdue. While they have two losses just like Wisconsin, one was by three to AP No. 1 Villanova and the other was by seven to top-10 Louisville. Being able to keep the games close against even the best teams who match up well with their weakness shows that the Boilers have the talent to compete and dominating lesser competition means they have an element of consistency that is necessary to make a run.

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With different approaches, strengths, and weaknesses, these teams will all be contenders in the Big Ten and it would be far from surprising if it came down to a close race. After parsing through all of the available information, Purdue appears to be just a half step above the rest. So as we trudge through the winter months, expect to see Caleb Swanigan and company carrying the Boilermakers to the top of the Big Ten standings and through a postseason run.