Cotton Bowl, Western Michigan vs Wisconsin: Preview and predictions

Western Michigan must overcome inexperience and Wisconsin’s fearsome front seven if they want to win the Cotton Bowl and cap off a perfect 14-0 season.

Out of every non-playoff New Years Six bowl, the Cotton Bowl might be the most intriguing game. That’s because Western Michigan, the best story of this college football season, will get their biggest test of the year when they take on Big Ten runners-up the Wisconsin Badgers.

Obviously, in a game between a MAC and Big Ten team, the level of competition is drastic. But if there’s one Power Five conference the Broncos know well, it’s the Big Ten. In the non-conference part of their schedule, they beat Northwestern and Illinois, giving them more Big Ten wins on the season than Michigan State, Rutgers, and Purdue.

Then again, Wisconsin is not Northwestern and Illinois. Including Western Michigan, they have played seven teams who were in the Top 15. Their only losses have come against the Big Ten’s elite in Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, and they were all by one score.

Obviously, things didn’t end the way they wanted to in the Championship Game, but Paul Chryst deserves a lot of credit for guiding them through that hellacious schedule. He was awarded the Big Ten Coach of the Year, but the coaching name that everyone’s focused on will be on the opposing sideline.

P.J. Fleck has guided the Broncos to three straight eight-win seasons, and back-to-back conference titles, but he’s only getting attention now that they’ve gone 13-0. Given that he’s been linked to several coaching jobs all season, that makes their undefeated record even more impressive. A Cotton Bowl win over Wisconsin would only further boost his profile, and given how well he knows the Big Ten, this could end up being his audition.

The Cotton Bowl is a big deal, but for Wisconsin, they were 30 minutes away from becoming Big Ten champions. They might view this bowl game as a consolation prize for missing out on the Rose Bowl, or the Playoff. That means if they don’t take the Cotton Bowl seriously, they could underestimate P.J. Fleck’s prolific offense.

There’s no shortage of ways the Broncos can win games. Corey Davis is statistically the best receiver in FBS history, and they rank fifth in passing yards per game (336.8), as well as eighth in scoring offense. But Wisconsin’s pass defense gives up an average of 206.1 yards per game, and has 21 interceptions on the year. They’re also the only team in the FBS to have three players with four picks this season — Leo Musso, D’Cota Dixon, and Sojourn Shelton.

Meanwhile, if there’s one weakness the Badgers have, it’s their offense. As a unit, they rank 67th in scoring offense, and their quarterbacks — who are used interchangeably — are middle-of-the-pack at best. Alex Hornibrook has a 58.1 completion percentage and a touchdown to interception ratio of 8-7. Bart Houston isn’t much better — his completion percentage is 65.1, and his touchdown to interception ratio is 5-3.

Wisconsin’s best offensive weapon is Corey Clement, but if there’s one thing the Broncos excel at on defense, it’s stopping the run. They give up 151.2 rushing yards, which is well below Wisconsin’s average of 204.5 rush yards per game.

Prediction

This is a fascinating match-up between two teams that play to their strengths. That’s why experience could be the thing that ends up deciding this contest. Wisconsin is playing in their 15th straight bowl game, while this is Western Michigan’s eighth bowl game in program history. We don’t know which version of the Badgers will show up, but they are the best team the Broncos have faced all year, and if they are on their game, points will come at a premium.

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Wisconsin won’t have to do a ton on the offensive side of the ball. And while Western Michigan’s a great team, their offense is nothing the Badgers haven’t seen before. They win the Cotton Bowl by a score of 28-16.