The Low-Usage All-Stars: Scoring isn’t everything

5. Anas Mahmoud – Louisville

(13.7 percent usage, BPM +14.7 points/100 possessions)

First up is Louisville’s Anas Mahmoud. The center, a native Egyptian who left his home country just four years ago to pursue his basketball dreams in the US, has been a key part of Louisville’s No. 1 defense so far this year.

Mahmoud developed his game as a 6-foot-4 wing; a growth spurt that began when he was about 16 left him a true 7-footer and the focus of major college attention after US coaches watched him work with Egypt’s national hoops team. He ended up going with Louisville, and struggled to gain minutes (weight, too; he was about 190 pounds his freshman year) and a true role in his freshman and sophomore year. He only averaged about 8 minutes and 1.3 points per game as a frosh; his sophomore campaign didn’t see much of an expansion, with bumps to 13 minutes and 3.2 points per game.

This year has been a ‘breakout’ of sorts for him — while he’s currently only averaging about five and a half points per game, with a 13.7 percent usage rating and about four field goal attempts per game, he’s playing about half of Louisville’s available minutes at center. And he has been incredibly ‘effective’ per Box Plus Minus, rating as a player +14.7 points per 100 possessions better than average. So how’s he getting there? Let’s take a deeper look.

The most obvious is his effect around the rim — the big man is currently averaging 2.5 blocks per game, which averages out to 7.2 blocks per 100 possessions. And the block rate is not the only place his impact has been felt — check out these side-by-side shot charts, showing Louisville’s defense when he’s on the floor, and when he’s not.

As always, look to the bottom here for an explanation of shot chart methodology. Louisville is currently missing their games with Long Beach State, Old Dominion, Grand Canyon, and Eastern Kentucky in the dataset.

While Louisville’s defense is excellent defending all zones of the court, opponents are shooting almost 12 percentage points worse within 5 feet of the basket when Mahmoud is in the game, per the available shots.

This is supported by full lineup analysis from hooplens.com, which includes the games missing from the shot chart dataset. When Mahmoud has been in the game, the team’s defensive 2-point field goal percentage drops just about 8 percentage points, from 44.7% to 36.7% — and the overall defensive efficiency improves by 13 points per 100 possessions. The skills Mahmoud developed as a wing are obvious in his effect near the rim. As noted in my recap of the Louisville-Indiana clash on New Year’s Eve, his footwork, timing, and movement near the rim on defense are excellent.

He’s clearly been the best defensive center for the Cardinals — his rotation partner at the center position, Mangok Mathiang, has had no discernible effect on either the defensive efficiency or the opponent 2FG% when he’s been in the game vs. the time he’s off.

Mahmoud’s game has also developed on the offensive end. While he’s not asked to do all that much (hence the 13.7 percent usage), he’s substantially increased his volume and effectiveness at the rim this year. Last year, he only hit 21 of his 40 shots at the rim (good for 46.8 percent). Through 11 games this year (he missed two due to concussion symptoms), he’s already taken 25 shots at the rim — and hit 20 of them, for 80 percent.

And while a large portion of these makes are assisted, Mahmoud has also shown a developing post game. Per Synergy Sport’s data, Mahmoud has created 20 points on 15 post-up possessions (1.33 points per possession, in the 99th percentile), which includes 9 passing possessions that have created 11 points. The footwork and overall smoothness he displays on offense translate to this nascent post game — he looks very comfortable doing it.

I have to peg Mahmoud’s improvement as real. His advanced statistics have always marked him as a sleeping defensive positive — his Defensive Box-Plus Minus was +8.0 points per 100 possessions his freshman year, and +10.7 per 100 his sophomore year. Mahmoud’s defensive presence has finally begun to tell in the on-off numbers this year, too. His improvements on the offensive end, mainly around the rim, has made leaving him on the floor for longer periods sustainable. This allows his defensive game to shine, without hurting the team on the offensive end. And with a potential move to the starting lineup on tap — Rick Pitino started him for the first time on Saturday against Indiana — he may have the chance to play even more minutes for the Cardinals soon.