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The Low-Usage All-Stars: Scoring isn’t everything

By Will Schreefer

Nov 18, 2016; Waco, TX, USA; Baylor Bears forward Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. (0) reacts after a score against the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles during the first half of a mens NCAA basketball game at Ferrell Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 18, 2016; Waco, TX, USA; Baylor Bears forward Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. (0) reacts after a score against the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles during the first half of a mens NCAA basketball game at Ferrell Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports /
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2. Mikal Bridges – Villanova

(14.2 percent usage, +14.2 points / 100 possessions BPM)

Mikal Bridges is probably the best NBA prospect for defending national champion Villanova, despite Josh Hart’s superstar turn so far this year. The 6-foot-7 redshirt sophomore, who measures out with a 7-foot-0.5 wingspan, is a rotational linchpin for the top-ranked Wildcats despite using only 14.2 percent of the available possessions while he’s on the floor.

His biggest asset is his defensive versatility. Bridges, despite playing mainly as the nominal SF or PF in Villanova’s small ball system, has the length and lateral mobility to guard any perimeter player. He’s Villanova’s go-to on-ball defender — this year, he’s shifted on to assignments like Notre Dame’s Matt Farrell and Creighton’s Maurice Watson when ‘Nova needed someone to shut them down. And, despite his lanky frame (he’s probably generously listed at 210 pounds), he’s been able to credibly match up with true (college) power forwards in the post, and has done a solid job of pulling in rebounds — he’s up to a 15.4 percent defensive rebounding rate in 2016-2017.

What he does best on offense is inextricably linked to his best defensive asset — get steals, and finish the resulting easy buckets in transition. Bridges finished last year with a top-125 steal rate (3.1 percent), and has upped that to 3.2 percent this year. And he’s continued to do a great job running off those steals. Last year, 22 of his 71 attempts at the rim (31 percent) came in transition — and he made all 22 of those transition attempts. This year, he’s already up to twelve shots at the rim in transition — and has again made all twelve.

But he’s started to expand his offensive game this year. A year after hitting just 23 of his 77 attempts from 3-point range (29.9 percent), Bridges has upped both his volume and efficiency in his current campaign. On three attempts per game (over an attempt more per game than last year), Bridges is currently hitting 38.1 percent of his triples — 16 for 42 so far. He’s really done well on his catch-and-shoot opportunities, which comprise all but four of his 3-point attempts, per Synergy Sports. Fifteen of his 38 catch-and-shoot 3’s have gone in the basket, in the top third of all players for efficiency. With a career free throw percentage over 80, it’s getting safer to say his deep ball is for real.

He’s also begun to expand his dribble-drive creation game. While, as mentioned, a lot of his attempts near the rim come off transition baskets — not all of them do. So far this year, Bridges has scored 14 unassisted baskets at the rim in the ‘non-transition’ part of offense — anything that happens more than 10 seconds after a possession change. This rate — one unassisted make at the rim per game — is above average for college wings. When he can get a head of steam going to his left — off a dribble handoff or driving past a closeout — his quickness and go-go gadget arms make it very difficult to block his shots — he’s currently hitting 78.3 percent of his 2-pointers, the sixth-best rate in the country per KenPom. He’s also hit 6 of his 12 attempts from the ‘mid-range’ in non-transition — and none of those makes were assisted. It’s not a huge part of his game, but it marks solid development — and hints at what could be possible were he on a team that needed him to take more than 15 percent of its shots.

In all, Bridges’s BPM dominance likely seems sustainable —  he had a +11.5 per 100 mark last year, on similar usage patterns. But there is some worry in his on-off numbers: per hooplens.com, Villanova plays much better on defense (about 11 points per 100 possessions) when Bridges is not on the floor, even excluding garbage time minutes. A similar pattern held last year. While some of this could be due to minutes in which Jay Wright is asking Bridges to play ‘center’ (which has occurred on about 10 percent of his possessions played — they haven’t done well on defense), it’s a trend I’ll have to track more to add further explanation.