DraftKings NBA Picks for January 4
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for January 4
There are seven games on our NBA slate tonight. That leaves us about half the league to choose from. Should we build our roster around Westbrook or Giannis? Or should we go with a balanced attack? Let’s see who has been hitting value lately, and who has a good matchup!
Don’t forget to follow @fantasycpr on Twitter for lineup updates as we get them leading to the tipoffs of the games! I am not always able to get back in here and fix my picks when someone sits for the night, but we will update it on Twitter.
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I am going to change one little thing. I usually create two DraftKings lineups, so I am going to start posting the both of them since the one I post usually winds up being the lower scoring of the two.
If you want a second opinion, head on over to Fantasypros. They will use their algorithm to help you find the best bang for the buck. They can also be customized to do the turbo and late tournaments, and they will also build around your favorite stack!
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,400): With the price this high on Giannis, there is a considerable amount of risk involved now. He has hit 5x value just once in his last five games. That said, he has not been below 44 DraftKings points. We have to measure him in what we think he will get in proportion to the price difference between him and Westbrook. Giannis gets the Knicks, and Westbrook gets the Hornets. The matchup favors Giannis enough to fade Westbrook for him.
Russell Westbrook ($12,600): Westbrook has also had problems hitting 5x value at this price. He has not hit that mark in the last three games, and two of those games he scored over 50 DraftKings points! Westbrook is still throwing down triple-doubles at a record pace, but that alone is not enough to give him value. The Hornets are probably good enough to keep him under 5x value as well, but I will bet he still breaks 50 DraftKings points.
Honorable Mention:
Kemba Walker ($8,200): Walker has had three straight games with over 5x value after three straight games under. May as well ride the hot streak while it lasts. He has a solid matchup with the Thunder, and though Stephen Curry has the better matchup, it’s hard to rely on the Warriors because of all of the weapons they have on that team. Walker is a safer play tonight.
Goran Dragic ($6,900): Dragic has had over 5x value in eight of the last 11 games. While Miami is more healthy than they have been lately, Tyler Johnson missed last night’s game with a migraine and Justise Winslow was also out. Hassan Whiteside is still grounded in Miami, so he is unlikely to be available once again. Dragic will likely have to carry the scoring load, which is just what us DFS players like to hear!
Dark Horses:
Elfrid Payton ($5,900): Atlanta is statistically the worst team against opposing point guards, so Payton has a very nice matchup here. D.J. Augustin is still the starter, but it is in name only. Payton has played as many or more minutes that Augustin in every game since December 16th. Payton has performed very well when the matchup is favorable. It certainly seems to be tonight.
Austin Rivers ($4,900): Chris Paul is still doubtful for tonight, so it looks as though Rivers will get another start. He has played pretty well with Paul out, averaging 23.5 DraftKings points per game over the five games. That puts him almost right at 5x value. Memphis has been tough on point guards though, so don’t expect a big game.
My pick: Dragic(PG); Walker(PG), Payton(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
C.J. McCollum ($8,600): Damian Lillard is yet another player carrying the doubtful designation into tonight’s games. McCollum torched the Timberwolves with Lillard out on Sunday, putting up 61.75 DraftKings points. McCollum has averaged 43.9 DraftKings points per game with Lillard on the pine. He has a nice matchup against the Warriors tonight. I would expect him around that mark, which is what he needs for 5x value.
Josh Richardson ($6,200): Richardson has been on a roll lately. He has averaged 35 DraftKings points over the last five games. His stock is definitely trending upward right now, especially with all of the injuries the Heat are still battling. He has a nice matchup against Sacramento tonight, so he should be near 6x value again.
Honorable Mention:
Nicolas Batum ($8,000): Batum has been carrying the Hornets lately. The last time he was under 35 DraftKings points was on December 17th. In the seven games since then, Batum is averaging 45.3 DraftKings points per game. Oklahoma City is a tougher matchup with Oladipo healthy, but Batum is worth a look just because of how hot he has been lately.
Victor Oladipo ($5,500): Oladipo has put up 56.25 DraftKIngs points in the two games since he missed nine games with a bum wrist. He has shown no ill effects, and doesn’t seem to be on a minutes limit, so Oladipo could be an absolute steal at this price. Especially if Charlotte succeeds at limiting Westbrook.
Dark Horses:
Malcolm Brogdon ($5,300): Brogdon is in line for another start tonight, but his price has risen so much that he is not as much of a steal as he was early on. He needs 26.5 DraftKings points for 5x value, a mark that he has hit in only three of the last seven games. He has the ability to go off, but the price is now at the point where he may be too much of a risk to gamble on despite him getting another start.
Evan Turner ($4,900): Turner has seen a nice minutes increase in the absence of Lillard. He has used it to become a solid value in DFS circles. Turner has averaged right at 5x value in the four games with Lillard out. If you need to go cheap, he is one of the safer options because of the guaranteed minutes.
My pick: Richardson(SG), Oladipo(G); McCollum(SG)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
Kevin Durant ($9,600): LeBron James battled the flu on Monday, and as of now is still a bit under the weather. With the King needing over 50 DraftKings points for 5x value, I will turn my page to a healthy Kevin Durant. In two games against Portland this year, Durant has put up 99 DraftKings points. That puts him a shade above 5x value against Portland on the season.
Jimmy Butler ($9,000): On paper, this matchup looks terrible, but hear me out. Dwyane Wade is still nursing a swollen knee, and Butler went bonkers on Charlotte with Wade out. I wouldn’t expect another 85 DraftKings point outing from Butler, but 50 is on the table since Wade will likely be limited if he plays. And there is the fact that Butler turned in 54.5 DraftKings points against the Cavs in their first meeting. I am on Butler again tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Jabari Parker ($7,200): Parker has started to come into his own over the last month or so. Parker is averaging 38.3 DraftKings points over the last ten games, putting him comfortably at 5x value. The Bucks are going to keep giving the youngster minutes. He is one of the building blocks of the franchise.
Maurice Harkless ($4,700): Harkless isn’t flashy, but he is very consistent. Mo has had between 21 and 29 DraftKings points in nine of his last ten games. That leaves him always somewhere around 5x value. He doesn’t have huge upside, but he is one of the more consistent options.
Dark Horses:
Wayne Ellington ($4,100): The injury carousel is still spinning in Miami. Ellington is back, but now Justise Winslow and James Johnson are out. Luke Babbitt is back, but Ellington wont have much of an issue holding him off. He only needs 20.5 DraftKings points for 5x value. He should get that against the Kings.
Richard Jefferson ($3,500): Jefferson is only in play if LeBron James and Kyrie Irving are still out. Even if James plays, he is probably still feeling the after effects of the flu. A healthy Jefferson could still see a good dose of minutes.
My Pick: Butler(SF); Harkless(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Paul Millsap ($7,600): With Kevin Love likely still battling weakness on account of a bout of food poisoning, I see Millsap as the top option. Even against a solid Orlando frontcourt. Millsap picked up 41.25 DraftKings points on the Magic in their first meeting. That makes him nearly 6x value if he can do it again.
Draymond Green ($7,500): Green put up 80.5 DraftKings points in two games against Portland this year. Green’s price makes him worth using most nights. Especially when he is facing a team that is statistically the worst in the league against power forwards. If you don’t feel like paying up for Durant, Green could come near his production at a lower price.
Honorable Mention:
Serge Ibaka ($6,500): There is a dearth of good mid range options at power forward tonight. Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful with an Achilles injury. Johnson, Winslow, and Blake Griffin are out. JaMychal Green left the game last night and did not return, so there is a chance he wont play. Serge Ibaka, come to the head of the class! Ibaka fared well in his first go round with Millsap. He put up 39.75 DraftKings points in that game.
Zach Randolph ($5,600): Randolph has at least 25 DraftKings points in each of his last six games. He likely will make it seven regardless of whether JaMychal Green plays or not. Randolph lacks upside, but he makes up for it by being consistent. His value gets a bit of a boost if Green sits, so monitor this situation.
Dark Horses:
Marreese Speights ($4,400): Memphis is tough on power forwards, but that could take a bit of a hit with Green out. Enter Speights, who matches up pretty good with Memphis down low. Speights has seized the power forward job with Griffin out, but he still rarely plays more than 25 minutes. Still, he has posted more than 20 DraftKings points in six of his last eight games.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,300): Aminu has battled some back issues over the last few weeks, so that makes him a risk. However, Aminu put up 29.5 DraftKings points on the Clippers in the first meeting, and that was before Griffin got hurt. His minutes have stabilized lately, and so has his production. Aminu has averaged nearly 5x value in his last four games.
My pick: Green(PF), Randolph(F); Ibaka(PF), Speights(F)
Center
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($11,500): The Heat have been tough on centers, but with Hassan Whiteside still out, Cousins is in play for me. Cousins has five straight games with more than 50 DraftKings points. The bad part is he needs 57.5 DraftKings points to make value. He only has that twice during his streak.
Marc Gasol ($7,800): Aside from only playing 21 minutes against the Kings on New Year’s Eve because of rolling his ankle, Gasol has hit 40 DraftKings points in six of his last eight games. And yes, statistically the Clippers are good against opposing centers, but Gasol has put up 92 DraftKings points up on them in only two games. His athleticism causes trouble for the Clippers, which could lead to DFS success again.
Honorable Mention:
Dwight Howard ($7,300): Unfortunately for us daily players, Howard has had some consistency issues this season. That said, he is taking on one of his former teams in the Magic. Howard put up 42.5 DraftKings points on them in the first meeting. The odds are in his favor again tonight.
DeAndre Jordan ($7,000): Jordan has picked up some of the slack from Griffin. He has 40 or more DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Memphis is tough in the middle, but Jordan collected 69 DraftKings points over the two previous games against them. That puts him right at 5x value.
Dark Horses:
Steven Adams ($5,300): If you are trying to guess who will have the better game between Adams and Enes Kanter, good luck. The reasoning behind taking Adams is that he has a much higher floor than Kanter does. Adams has not been under 22 DraftKings points in over a month. Kanter has been held to single digits twice in that span.
Willie Reed ($3,900): Reed had a monster game last night with Whiteside out. He racked up 54.5 DraftKings points against a Suns team that is solid up front. He has a good matchup tonight against the Kings, and has the greatest potential to vault you into the money. He will be widely owned, but at this price, you have to take him.
My pick: Adams(C), Reed(UTIL); Gasol(C), Reed(UTIL)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend. We will also have the College Football Championship game prediction coming, against the spread of course!