We still have more questions than answers with Miles Bridges

Miles Bridges is undeniably talented. There simply are not too many players in the country with the type of bounce he has, particularly on his heavy 230-pound frame.

Example:

Many strengths of Bridges’ game stem from his explosiveness. He only stands 6-foot-6 in shoes with a 6-foot-8.5 wingspan, yet is able to contribute in many ways you would expect from a bigger player. He is a strong rebounder on both sides of the ball, averaging 10.8 boards per 40 minutes in his eight games thus far. Despite the length of a typical shooting guard or small forward, he also has a 4.6 percent block rate due to his freaky leaping ability.

Bridges’ explosion isn’t purely vertical, either. His first step is quick and powerful, and in close-out situations, he can easily blow by his man to the hoop.

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What makes Bridges such an exciting prospect is that he is not only an athlete. Perhaps Bridges’ most unique skill for a player of his strengths is his ability to pass the ball. He is a good instinctual ball-mover who is able to catch it in the high post or on the perimeter and swing to the open man, but he even has displayed vision on the move and as a pick-and-roll ball-handler.

With the departure of Denzel Valentine, Michigan State was left without any primary creators, and Tom Izzo gave Bridges free rein to try and lead the offense. He has scored 20.5 points per 40 minutes and assisted on 14 percent of his teammate’s field goals while on the floor but has also shown that he is not quite ready for that responsibility. For a player who should be such a dynamic finisher inside, his 56.2 field goal percentage at the rim on non-transition opportunities, per Hoop-Math, is pretty poor and a testament to his tendency to force shots up in heavy traffic.

Bridges has good vision for his teammates, but he doesn’t always see the defense and his handle is too loose to attack the way he tries to. As a result, he is posting an assist-to-turnover ratio of 0.59 and turning the ball over on 18.2 percent of his possessions.

It’s always tricky to evaluate a player who is being stretched outside of his likely NBA role. On the one hand, it is a good thing that Bridges has shown the ability to create off-the-dribble some, both for himself and his teammates. Conversely, there are now concerns that he will try and force the issue at the NBA-level, and could be prone to bad shot selection and decision making.

The biggest question for Bridges’ NBA future is undoubtedly his outside shot. Coming into the year he faced big questions about his jumper, but he has shot the ball pretty well so far. He is 15-39 (38.5 percent) from the perimeter and is shooting 41.7 percent on 2-point jumpers, according to Hoop-Math. He has looked confident shooting off-the-catch by putting up almost five 3-point attempts per game, and looks fluid shooting off-the-bounce even if some of his attempts are ill-advised.

However, there are legitimate reasons to doubt Bridges’ hot-start so far. He is only shooting 53.8 percent from the free throw line, and as you can see in the video above his form is somewhat unconventional with his elbow sticking out and his follow-through flailing to the side a bit. I am still a pessimist on Bridges’ shot, and watching to see how he shoots it the rest of the year will be very interesting.

It cannot be overstated how crucial Bridges’ outside shot is to his NBA success. With a 3-point shot, it is not hard to envision him as a starting-quality power forward. He has the strength and athleticism to bang with bigger players and even add some rim protection, while possessing the mobility to guard pick-and-roll well and match up with other teams downsizing at the 4. On offense, a semi-reliable outside shot unlocks his ability to space the floor and attack the lane on closeouts, while allowing him to pick-and-pop or pick-and-roll effectively.

A guy who can attack and finish at the rim, space the floor, and pass on the move some can be a supremely valuable offensive player, even with some shoddy decision making and an only somewhat advanced skillset. Not to mention the fact that a 3-point shot gives Bridges the flexibility to play the three in some bigger lineups, though he would best be utilized as a power forward.

Without a 3-point shot, Bridges’ NBA future becomes a lot more murky. Playing the 3 would be out of the question, and as a 4-man he would still be no more than a backup. He lacks the awareness or consistent effort of an elite defensive prospect, and his struggles at Michigan State have shown his inability to be a primary creator, so he really needs the jumper to allow him to thrive in an off-ball role. There is some hope a team could unleash him as a super-small-ball 5 due to his ability to protect the rim, but even then he brings a lot more value to that role if he can stretch opposing bigs out some.

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Bridges has missed Michigan State’s last seven games due to an ankle injury, and in his absence, they have figured out how to get offense in other ways. Sophomore big man Nick Ward has been dominant inside, and freshman point guard Cassius Winston has taken on a much larger creating role. Hopefully Bridges won’t be forced to assume quite as large an on-ball role, and we can see more of the type of NBA player he could be.

If he continues to shoot the ball well from the outside while showcasing slightly better decision-making, Bridges looks like a lottery guy. If his shot starts to flounder and his decision making issues and defensive lapses continue, I could easily see him falling to the late first or returning to school.