DraftKings NBA Picks for January 6
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for January 6
We are back up to eight games on our DraftKings NBA tournament tonight. A few of our friends are on the second night of back to backs. Will that affect their performance? Is it enough to think about fading Harden?
Don’t forget to follow @fantasycpr on Twitter for lineup updates as we get them leading to the tipoffs of the games! I am not always able to get back in here and fix my picks when someone sits for the night, but we will update it on Twitter.
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I am going to change one little thing. I usually create two DraftKings lineups, so I am going to start posting the both of them since the one I post usually winds up being the lower scoring of the two.
If you want a second opinion, head on over to Fantasypros. They will use their algorithm to help you find the best bang for the buck. They can also be customized to do the turbo and late tournaments, and they will also build around your favorite stack!
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700): Even at this price, Giannis has hit 5x value in his last three games. He has a great matchup against the Knicks tonight. In the first meeting with the Knicks all the way back on Wednesday, Antetokounmpo picked up 57.75 DraftKings points, which would put him comfortably at 5x value.
John Wall ($10,100): Wall’s ceiling isn’t quite as high as Antetokounmpo’s, but Wall has been over 5x value in five of the last six games. He has a very nice matchup with the Timberwolves tonight. While they are getting better on the perimeter, they still leave something to be desired. That makes someone like Wall who is as dangerous passing as shooting a hot commodity.
Honorable Mention:
Isaiah Thomas ($8,300): Thomas has been on an absolute tear lately. He is averaging 50.7 DraftKings points over his last eight games. He has a very nice matchup against the 76ers tonight, a team that he put up 54.5 DraftKings points on in the first meeting. I wouldn’t be surprised if Thomas outscored one of both of the higher priced options tonight.
Goran Dragic ($7,400): Dragic should see another big workload tonight. Hassan Whiteside is definitely out, as is Justise Winslow. Dion Waiters and Tyler Johnson are questionable. Dragic has a really good matchup with the Lakers tonight, but he only posted 5x value against the Lakers the first time. I trust Dragic more than Kyrie Irving even though Irving has a better matchup. The Cavs likely will blow out the Nets, so I don’t see Irving playing heavy minutes. Dragic has a much better chance of hitting value just because of volume.
Dark Horses:
D’Angelo Russell ($6,200): On paper, the Heat aren’t a great matchup for Russell. However, Russell put up 33 DraftKings points on the Heat in the first matchup. When you take into account that Russell in on a tear right now, and you have what could be a great play tonight. Russell has 32 or more DraftKings points in each of the last four games.
Tyler Johnson ($5,800): If Johnson is able to play, he has a good matchup against the Lakers. He put up 28.25 DraftKings points on the Lakers in the first meeting, which puts him right at 5x value. There really is no reason for him not to duplicate that. If the migraine is still bugging him, he likely wont be playing in the first place.
My pick: Thomas(PG), Russell(G); Wall(PG), Johnson(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($12,200): Once again, Russell Westbrook shone brightest in the matchup of the two best fantasy players so far this year. With the spotlight off, Harden can get back to shredding opponents. Orlando is solid on the perimeter, but solid doesn’t mean much when guarding Harden. Westbrook’s outburst last night overshadowed the fact that Harden topped 60 DraftKings points for the fourth straight game. He has not been under 50 since late November. He remains an elite option no matter which slate he is on.
Zach LaVine ($6,700): LaVine has established himself as one of the top scorers for one of the most exciting teams in the league. He also plays good defense, which keeps him on the court a lot. LaVine has four games outside of 5x value in his last ten, but he also has two games at 8x value. He has a very high ceiling if you want to roll the dice a little.
Honorable Mention:
Bradley Beal ($6,900): Beal struggled against Milwaukee and Indiana, teams who are good on the wings. Minnesota statistically is third best in the league against shooting guards, so this looks like another tough night for Beal. That said, the Timberwolves have given up a few good games in the last two weeks. Beal has averaged 35 DraftKings points over his last ten, even with those three subpar games. He is playing well against a team that has started to break down at times. He could still be in line for 5x value, and wont be widely owned.
Avery Bradley ($6,100): We will go ahead and toss out Bradley’s total against the Jazz because they dominate all guards. Bradley was not the first to fall victim to them this season, and he certainly wont be the last. Bradley put up 6x value on the 76ers in their first meeting this year. Bradley was starting to get back on track before Utah shut him down. He had 78 DraftKings points against Cleveland and Memphis in the prior two games. You should be able to trust him against Philly.
Dark Horses:
Eric Gordon ($5,800): Gordon has topped 5x value in five of the last six games. Orlando is a solid matchup for him (18th against shooting guards), and though the return of Patrick Beverley could cut into his minutes a little, Gordon still managed a good game last night against the Thunder. And he still played 29 minutes. That is more than enough time for him to hit value.
Tony Allen ($4,700): Allen has been more of a part of the offense his year than in previous years. That said, he wont be winning a scoring title any time soon. He still struggles to hit double digits most night. He did put up 28.25 DraftKings points on the Warriors in the first meeting with them. That leaves him well over 6x value if he can do it again.
My pick: Allen(SG); Gordon(SG)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
Carmelo Anthony ($7,900): Melo tore the Bucks a new one at the Garden on Wednesday night. He racked up 60.75 DraftKings points in what may have been his best game of the season. With the two options in front of him being risky plays (Kevin Durant only put up 30 DraftKings points on Golden State in the first meeting. LeBron James only played 27 minutes in his first tilt with the Nets, and that will likely happen again), Melo will be highly owned. I wouldn’t expect another 60 bomb from him, but 5x value is very likely.
Andrew Wiggins ($6,800): Like the rest of this team, Wiggins is still prone to off nights. It comes with the territory of being a young scorer. In fact, the whole game against Philly on Wednesday was a mess for the Timberwolves. Wiggins looks likely to bounce back here against a Washington team that is in the bottom ten against small forwards.
Honorable Mention:
Trevor Ariza ($5,900): Ariza couldn’t get anything going against the Thunder last night, but he didn’t need to either. Tonight he gets to face off against his former team in Orlando. Ariza had one of his best years with the Magic. Can he recapture some of that back in his old digs? Before last night, Ariza had hit at least 33 DraftKings points in three straight games and four of his last five. Don’t be surprised if the starts a new streak tonight.
Josh Richardson ($5,600): Richardson will continue to get a good run with injuries ravaging the Heat. He only mustered 21.25 DraftKings points against the Lakers in the first meeting, and he very well could be held to that again. Or he could go off for 50. Richardson has a high ceiling for those willing to gamble.
Dark Horses:
Aaron Gordon ($4,900): Gordon is the 2016-17 version of Tobias Harris. The talent is there. We can all see it. We have over the last two games with Gordon scoring 73 DraftKings points in that span. What he has also been is very inconsistent. He has three outings of ten DraftKings points or less in the last ten games. He is a huge risk. But the offensively inept Andre Roberson dropped 14 points on Houston last night. Gordon could be in line for a big game.
Dario Saric ($4,500): This play rides solely on the health of Robert Covington. If Covington plays, I am looking elsewhere. However, if Saric can pick up 27 minutes like he did against Boston the first time, there is a slight chance that he could replicate his 41.25 DraftKings point outburst, his best game of the season. I would be that he is closer to 30, but even that is 7x value. Keep an eye on Covington’s status. If he is out Saric is worth a look at a position that it truly a crapshoot tonight.
My Pick: Gordon(SF); Richardson(SF), Gordon(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Julius Randle ($7,200): I’m not quite as high on Randle as I was last night, but you can’t ignore what he has done lately. With so many other uncertainties at PF tonight, I would much rather roll with Randle. I do expect Kevin Love to play, but it’s against the Nets. The Cavs wont overexert him. Draymond Green was awful against Memphis in the first meeting. Jabari Parker struggled against the Knicks on Wednesday. Yeah, give me Randle.
Ersan Ilyasova ($6,000): Embiid missed practice yesterday because of a stomach illness. If he can’t play, I like Ilyasova even more. Even if Embiid plays, Ilyasova has hit 5x value or better in five straight games. He is a key part of the 76ers frontcourt right now.
Honorable Mention:
Gorgui Dieng ($5,800): Dieng’s performance has leveled off lately, but it has leveled off at a pace that is still 5x value. He lacks a lot of upside because of all of the other scoring options on this team, but he is a really good rebounder, which keeps him from being a total bust.
Trevor Booker ($5,700): Booker’s output is a little more volatile than Dieng’s, but he also has a higher ceiling. I put Booker ahead of Dieng if Kevin Love sits out. At any rate, Booker has been a 5x value machine lately. He has a very good shot against a Cleveland team that may be resting players tonight.
James Johnson ($5,700): Johnson has 116 DraftKings points over his last three games. He is going to get all of the minute he can handle with Justise Winslow sidelined. Johnson also put up 40 DraftKings points on the Lakers in their first meeting. What’s to stop him from doing it again? It wont be the minutes.
Dark Horses:
Marreese Speights ($4,000): Speights still has more upside than Luc Richard Mbah a Moute with Blake Griffin out. The Clippers will need his size to bang around with the Kings up front, and while he lacks significant upside, he has been a consistent source of 5x value with Griffin out.
Amir Johnson ($3,800): The Celtics frontcourt is still pretty unsettled, but Johnson has managed to carve out a pretty consistent role. There is a lot of youth up front for Boston, so Johnson’s veteran presence helps. The fact that he consistently puts up DraftKings points in the low 20’s doesn’t hurt either.
My pick: Ilyasova(PF), Johnson(F); Booker(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900): Boogie was a huge letdown on Wednesday against the Heat even with Hassan Whiteside out. He went just 4-15 from the floor and hauled in just six rebounds. He hasn’t racked up a ton of boards this year, so Cousins needs those points. He should get plenty of open shots with Griffin missing from the Clippers frontcourt.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,600): Towns has been under 40 DraftKings points just once in the last 14 games. That gives him a high floor, which is exactly what you want at this price range. He does many things well, so even if his shot isn’t falling, he still approaches 5x value.
Honorable Mention:
Joel Embiid ($7,700): Embiid will likely play if he can since he wasn’t scheduled for rest tonight. If he does play, I want him in my lineup. Embiid has gone over 40 DraftKings points in five of the last six games. He is now approaching 30 minutes per game. If he gets up over 30, look out. He is dangerous lingering a bit under!
Marc Gasol ($7,400): Gasol’s matchup doesn’t look great on paper. The Warriors are fourth in the league against centers, but Gasol put up 42 DraftKings points against Golden State in the first meeting. He is athletic enough to give them issues on this inside, such as making Draymond Green drop down to guard him. Let’s see if the Warriors have an answer for Gasol this time.
DeAndre Jordan ($7,100): Jordan has picked up his output some with Griffin gone, but not to the extent that he did last year. Still, his price has not skyrocketed, so that is great for us. Jordan has six straight games of at least 5x value, and has been over 6x in the last two games. He put up 35.5 DraftKings points on the Kings in the first meeting which is exactly 5x value.
Dark Horses:
Nikola Vucevic ($6,300): All of the Magic fans are pleading with the staff to keep Vucevic on the bench. He has been very consistent in that role, and he has done very well in that role. Vucevic has topped 40 DraftKings points in six of his last 11 games. He may do it against Houston with Clint Capela out as well.
Greg Monroe ($5,800): Monroe dominated the Knicks on Wednesday with 41.75 DraftKings points. He should get similar run again tonight. He also did that on the road. Monroe has averaged a full point more per game at home this season.
Tristan Thompson ($4,500): Thompson picked up 35.75 DraftKings points against the Nets in their first meeting. If Kevin Love sits or is limited, Thompson could do even more tonight. He may be one of the best bargains on the board, but with so many good options at center, he may not be widely used.
My pick: Towns(C), Thompson(UTIL); Vucevic(C), Monroe(UTIL)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend. We will also have the College Football Championship game prediction coming, against the spread of course!