DraftKings NBA Picks for January 9
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for January 9
This is a very light night in the NBA with the NCAA Football Championship game going on. This could be a place for us to find some value. And you probably can’t afford to fade Westbrook. But let’s look at our DraftKings slate a little more in depth anyway.
Don’t forget to follow @fantasycpr on Twitter for lineup updates as we get them leading to the tipoffs of the games! I am not always able to get back in here and fix my picks when someone sits for the night, but we will update it on Twitter.
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I am going to change one little thing. I usually create two DraftKings lineups, so I am going to start posting the both of them since the one I post usually winds up being the lower scoring of the two.
If you want a second opinion, head on over to Fantasypros. They will use their algorithm to help you find the best bang for the buck. They can also be customized to do the turbo and late tournaments, and they will also build around your favorite stack!
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($13,000): That is a massive price tag, and the Bulls are third best in the league against point guards. So why use him? Well, there are only three games. That’s it. Westbrook has also had three straight games of more than 70 DraftKings points, and Rajon Rondo helped the Bulls defensive stats. He is no longer playing really, but Michael Carter-Williams is still solid in that regard. If you build two lineups, you can fade Westbrook in one.
Jrue Holiday ($6,600): If you fade Westbrook, you are likely giving up at least 20 DraftKings points just because of scarcity at the position. Holiday doesn’t have a great matchup against New York, but he did put up 40.5 DraftKings points on them in the first meeting on December 30th. Holiday struggled some against Boston and Atlanta which is a bit concerning, but he is the next best option on the board at PG.
Honorable Mention:
Derrick Rose ($5,800): Rose’s production has leveled off of late. However, Saturday’s 24 DraftKings point output was the lowest in the last dozen games. He put up 28.5 against the Hornets the first time around, which would leave him right at 5x value. As far as getting your money’s worth, Rose is a safe pick.
Dark Horses:
J.J. Barea ($4,000): So why Barea and not starter Deron Williams? Well, one is price. If Barea tanks, you aren’t out much. Another is that Ricky Rubio and the Timberwolves have dominated some pretty good point guards over the last couple of weeks. Barea will play less minutes against Rubio, and will also play some at the off guard, freeing him from the Rubio prison. He also played for this team. You know he will want to play well.
Jerian Grant ($3,100): Carter-Williams is getting most of the minutes, but he hasn’t done a whole lot with them. Grant is giving more output with less minutes, which could result in the Bulls using Grant more. Grant has averaged 20 DraftKings points per game since Rondo fell out of the rotation. He is a much safer play than MCW right now, but MCW has a higher upside.
My pick: Westbrook(PG), Barea(G), Grant(UTIL); Rose(PG), Grant(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
Zach LaVine ($6,700): He has a good matchup with Dallas, and he just lit up a good Utah team on Saturday. That said, LaVine still has games where he goes cold from the floor, which limits his value. But on a light slate, LaVine has much more upside than anyone else at the position.
Victor Oladipo ($6,300): Oladipo has been remarkably consistent. Since his return on New Year’s Eve, he has not been under 30 DraftKings points since that first game, but he has not been over 33 either. He is a concrete 5x value where LaVine could land you anywhere from 3-7x value.
Honorable Mention:
Dwyane Wade ($6,200): Wade put on a show against Toronto on Saturday, and he has also not been under 23 DraftKings points in six weeks now. While anything under 30 could really hurt on a short slate, the matchup against the Thunder is a pretty good one. Don’t expect the 37 of Saturday, but 5x value is on the table.
Dark Horses:
Buddy Hield ($4,400): Hield is finally starting to adjust to the NBA. He has yet to really go off, and he did struggle some against a solid Boston perimeter, but despite the depressed scoring he still picked up 18 DraftKings points. With his shooting potential, he can put up points in a hurry. Just be aware that New York is solid against shooters because of…..
Courtney Lee ($4,100): Lee’s defensive prowess keeps him near 5x value even when he doesn’t score much. Lee plays a lot of minutes, and at this price is relatively low risk. If you plan on paying up for two studs, Lee is a favorable punt option.
My pick: Oladipo(SG); LaVine(SG), Lee(UTIL)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
Jimmy Butler ($9,300): Even with Wade back on Saturday, Butler racked up nearly 70 DraftKIngs points. He is on quite a roll right now, averaging 59.3 DraftKings points over his last six games. Don’t hesitate tonight. Butler has a good matchup and is taking on a much larger role with Rondo on the bench.
Carmelo Anthony ($7,200): Melo crashed back to earth in the tail end of a back to back against Indiana on Saturday to the surprise of no one. Can he recapture the Magic that he had in the two games against the Bucks tonight? Maybe, considering Melo put up 48.75 on the Pelicans weak SF defense in the first meeting.
Honorable Mention:
Harrison Barnes ($6,400): I trust Barnes a whole lot more than Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins has more upside, but I wont shy away from using Barnes against a good defense because he has not been under 25 DraftKings points in over a month, and has five straight over 30. He is a stable mid-range option.
Nikola Mirotic ($4,700): Mirotic’s shot has been falling more lately. He has five straight games in double figures and has three straight games of 23 or more DraftKings points. Oklahoma City doesn’t provide a bad matchup for him. If he plays mostly on the exterior, he could have a sneaky good game.
Dark Horses:
Doug McDermott ($4,200): McDermott has quietly played 27 or more minutes in every game since Christmas. He put up 64 DraftKings points over the last two games, and could have a huge game against Oklahoma City. To me, he is more valuable than Mirotic tonight, but he may be heavily owned.
Andre Roberson ($3,900): Roberson has put up 55.25 DraftKings points over the last two games. He has scored in double figures in both games and hauled in 17 rebounds. Roberson plays plenty of minutes. Can he keep this streak going? He is a hit or miss proposition though. There likely isn’t an in between.
My Pick: McDermott(SF); Butler(SF), Roberson(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($11,100): Davis has only been under 50 DraftKings points once in his last nine games. It wasn’t against the Knicks. He put up 51.5 on them. That would leave him a little shy of value, but he and Westbrook are the only ones you can count of for a sure 50. That kind of roster foundation costs money.
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,400): Porzingis played 34 minutes in the second game of a back to back on Saturday, so it appears though he is fine going forward. He put up 50 DraftKings points on the Pelicans back on December 30th, which is his last “full’ game (he played 38 minutes). He will likely come close to that output again.
Honorable Mention:
Gorgui Dieng ($5,700): Dieng’s output has really stabilized over the last seven games. He has been over 25 DraftKings points in all of them, and over 5x value in all but one of them. He flirts with a double-double every night now, which makes him a stable value play.
Dark Horses:
Taj Gibson ($4,600): The increased minutes for McDermott and Mirotic have come at the expense of Gibson. Considering that Oklahoma City is not huge up front, it could be another lighter night for Taj. However, at this price, he could be worth the risk.
Dwight Powell ($3,300): Powell has lost some minutes to Dirk Nowitzki, but Dirk is still on a minutes restriction, which leaves Powell still picking up around 20-25 minutes per game. His price has also dropped to the point that he has reached 5x value in all but one game since Dirk returned. He lacks upside with the reduced minutes, but he is a solid cheap option.
My pick: Porzingis(PF), Dieng(F); Davis(PF)
Center
Best Bet:
Steven Adams ($6,000): Adams has been above 5x value in eight of the last nine games. He also has a good matchup against Chicago tonight. Kanter has more upside, but Adams in the easy pick for 5x value, and likely more.
Honorable Mention:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,900): Dallas is the best team in the league against opposing centers. And when you add in the fact that A.D., Westbrook, and Butler are all in action, Towns will be a forgotten man tonight. That could work in our favor. Despite the tough matchup with Utah, Towns still just missed 40 DraftKings points. That was his lowest total since Christmas. Towns could be the break from the pack that you need if he comes through.
Enes Kanter ($5,000): The aforementioned Kante relies more on scoring that Adams does, which varies his production a lot more. That said, it also gives him a lot more upside than Adams, especially against a team that isn’t particularly strong up front.
Dark Horse:
Andrew Bogut ($3,200): Bogut is mostly a defensive guy, but so long as he plays more than 20 minutes, it gives him ample time to collect enough rebounds to stay at 5x value. This is a very rough slate at center, so if you aren’t a believer in any of the top options, a Bogut punt is on the table.
My pick: Adams(C);
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend. We will also have the College Football Championship game prediction coming, against the spread of course!