DraftKings NBA Picks for January 10
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for January 10
We are back up to nine games for our DraftKings main slate tonight. We have plenty of stars and midrange options to go around, but who will the bargains be tonight? Let’s try to find them!
Don’t forget to follow @fantasycpr on Twitter for lineup updates as we get them leading to the tipoffs of the games! I am not always able to get back in here and fix my picks when someone sits for the night, but we will update it on Twitter.
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Most of my picks end up being a little on the conservative side, so these lineups may be better suited for cash games, though I usually play both types.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
John Wall ($9,900): On paper, this isn’t a great matchup for Wall, but if we dig a little deeper, it isn’t that bad. Wall put up 49 DraftKings points on the Bulls with Rajon Rondo at the point in the first meeting. He should fare a little better against MCW and Grant playing defense. At any rate, he looks like a safe bet for 5x value.
Isaiah Thomas ($9,100): If you take out the aberration against Philadelphia, Thomas has four straight games of over 50 DraftKings points. He has a nice matchup against Toronto tonight, and is showing no signs of shooting less or slowing down. He should at least come close to 50 again.
Damian Lillard ($9,000): McCollum has helped take some of the scoring load off of Lillard which is good for Portland, but not so good for us fantasy players. Lillard has 82.5 DraftKings points in two games back though, which leaves him a shade under 5x value. He put up 44.75 DraftKings points on the Lakers in the first meeting. If he can get that total again, I think most people who roll with Lillard with be happy.
Honorable Mention:
Kyle Lowry ($8,200): Lowry has been all over the place lately. He has just 13.5 DraftKings points against the Spurs on January 3rd, then just four days later racked up 65.25 on the Bulls. Where will he fall tonight? I will say closer to what he did against the Bulls based on his 52.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Boston.
Kemba Walker ($8,000): San Antonio is the only team to hold Walker under 5x value since December 28th. He has been on a roll lately. The matchup with Houston is not a really easy one, but it is good enough that Walker should be sniffing around 5x value again.
Reggie Jackson ($7,200): Jackson has three straight games of over 40 DraftKings points. I think its safe to say that he is back considering he played a whopping 47 minutes against Portland on Sunday. He is suitable to play in all formats.
Dark Horses:
D’Angelo Russell ($6,900): Russell is still underpriced right now, and he has a great matchup against Portland tonight. The same Portland team that Reggie Jackson beat up on. Russell is riding a streak of six straight games of over 5x value. I would bet that he makes it seven.
Tyler Johnson ($5,500): Johnson has been over 25 DraftKings points in all but one of his last 12 games. That means he has been a lock for 5x value, and often much more. He has a great matchup against Golden State tonight as well. Johnson should still see around 30 minutes of court time, so he projects as a bargain.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($3,500): Jeremy Lin has already been ruled out for tonight. The reason I am willing to gamble with Dinwidde over Isaiah Whitehead is because even though Whitehead started on Sunday, Dinwiddie outproduced him. Dinwiddie is much less of a risk if you are looking to go cheap.
My pick: Jackson(PG), Johnson(G); N/A
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($12,100): The Magic are the only team that has managed to keep Harden under 55 DraftKings points over the last ten games besides a Memphis team that “held” him to 50. As good as Russell Westbrook has been, it’s easy to overlook Harden. That said, Harden is the only player to hit triple digits in DraftKings points this year. He went for 103.5 against the Knicks on New Year’s Eve. He wont do that to Charlotte, but he should reach at least half that.
C.J. McCollum ($8,100): Perhaps Lillard missing two weeks was a blessing. Portland realized that it has someone else that can carry the team if need be. Even with Lillard back, McCollum continues to put up huge numbers. He has averaged 45.4 DraftKings points over the last nine games. 5.5x value at this price!
Honorable Mention:
Bradley Beal ($6,400): Beal doesn’t take over games, but he has figured out how to be a consistent force for the Wizards. He is a good compliment to John Wall. However, with Wall around Beal is mostly a scorer. He has scored more than 20 points in eight of the last ten games, and has hit 5x value in seven of those. He is a solid bet against the Bulls, who likely will have a limited Jimmy Butler again.
Marcus Smart ($5,800): Avery Bradley is out once again. With Bradley out on Sunday, Smart racked up 44.25 DraftKings points. He has a solid matchup with Toronto tonight. While he may not top 40, he is a lock for 5x value and likely at least 6x.
Dark Horses:
Malcolm Brogdon ($5,400): It looks as though Brogdon has wrestled the job away from Matthew Dellavedova. He came up big with Giannis Antetokuonmpo out on Sunday, but with Giannis back, we should temper our expectations some. Still, Brogdon has averaged 33 DraftKings points per game over the last five games. He should still be a bargain tonight.
Jeremy Lamb ($5,100): Nicolas Batum is doubtful for tonight, which means Lamb should get another start. He put up 29 DraftKings points against the Spurs on Saturday. Houston is an easier matchup for him, so Lamb could put up even more tonight.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,600): The Hawks jettisoned Kyle Korver out of town to make room for Timmy. He has responded by averaging 28 DraftKings points over his last four games. He has a great chance to keep it up against the Nets.
My pick: McCollum(SG), Smart(F), Hardaway(G); Harden(PG), Smart(G), Lamb (G), Hardaway(F)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
Kevin Durant ($9,900): I’m not usually one to ignore a bad matchup, but Durant is nearly matchup-proof. Only the Nuggets have been able to hold him under 5x value in the last eight games. Justise Winslow was a big reason the Heat had such good numbers against small forwards. Durant has a much easier matchup than the stats say.
Kawhi Leonard ($7,900): Leonard had a rough go of it against Charlotte and Atlanta so far this year, but the rest of the games have been well above 5x value. Milwaukee looks like a good matchup on paper, but Leonard only picked up 35.75 DraftKings points on the Bucks the first time around. However, he was only 9-22 from the floor in that one. If a couple more shots fall, he has 5x value.
Honorable Mention:
Tobias Harris ($6,300): I never thought I would say this about Harris, but he has been the model of consistency lately. Since December 23rd, Harris has only been under 32 DraftKings points once in those eight games. He has also only been over 35 once. He should be a cash game staple right now because he is planted firmly at 5x value.
Trevor Ariza ($5,700): Ariza has done well with teams that don’t defend the small forward spot very well. Charlotte is in the bottom five against small forwards. In Ariza’s last five game against bottom ten teams against SF’s, he has had at least 33 DraftKings points in each of those.
Dark Horses:
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($5,000): MKG has found his consistency again in 2017. So far this year, he has averaged 26.2 DraftKings points per game. That leaves him right around 5x value.
Doug McDermott ($4,400): McDermott hurt a lot of people that had him in there expecting Jimmy Butler not to play. Dougie still picked up solid minutes, but his shots weren’t falling. The Bulls already sent Butler home and told him not to come back, so McDermott will see a lot of shots against a Washington defense that doesn’t close out that well. Expect a bounce back game from McDermott.
My Pick: Harris(SF); McDermott(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Draymond Green ($7,800): Green does so many things well that he is rarely under 5x value. He has only missed 5x value twice in the last 11 games. With Josh McRoberts still out, Green could have an easier time against Willie Reed and company up front.
Paul Millsap ($7,800): The Nets have not defended the interior well so far at all this year. Booker has been a much needed shot in the arm on offense, but the defense isn’t there yet. Millsap has averaged 44.3 DraftKings points per game since Christmas. Expect him to boost the average so long as this game doesn’t become a blowout.
Honorable Mention:
Julius Randle ($7,400): Randle has started to take control of the interior lately. He has only been held under 30 DraftKings points once in his last 11 games. Against Portland on January 5th, Randle picked up 36.75 DraftKings points, but was only 4-13 from the floor. If he can straighten that shot up a little, he is a lock for 5x value.
James Johnson ($6,000): Johnson likely wont relinquish his minutes even when McRoberts returns. Johnson has only been under 5x value three times in the last ten games. Two of those were before McRoberts went down and Johnson was only playing 20 minutes per game. Much like Green, he doesn’t rely on scoring much. He battles for rebounds, is a solid passer, and picks up block and steals. He should have no problems getting to 5x value tonight.
Dark Horses:
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,100): Aminu has been over 30 DraftKings points in each of his last three games. The best one of those was against the Lakers in which he picked up 33.25 DraftKings points. Aminu ins’t much of a scorer, but he is a really good rebounder and a solid passer. That makes him a low risk option.
Patrick Patterson ($3,600): Patterson is still outplaying Pascal Siakam though he is playing less minutes. The coming off the bench part shouldn’t be a deterrent. You can argue that Patterson has done better off the bench. Boston has been awful against power forwards this year. As in dead last. Patterson picked up 25.5 DraftKings points on Boston the first time around. That is a great return if he does it again.
My pick: Johnson(PF); Aminu(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Andre Drummond ($7,700): Both DeMarcus Cousins and Hassan Whiteside faced off against top five defenses against centers. I don’t trust that with such a high pricetag on both of them. I would rather roll with Drummond, who has abused opponents lately. Drummond is averaging 45.2 DraftKings points over the last four games. He has another solid matchup on tap with the Kings if he can keep out of foul trouble.
Dwight Howard ($7,500): Howard has not been very consistent this year, but he has done well in good matchups. As I said before, the Nets are mostly awful inside. Howard has the potential to tear them apart. Especially when you consider that he put up 43 DraftKings points on the Mavs Saturday night. The same Mavs team that statistically is the best in the league against centers.
Honorable Mention:
Al Horford ($6,700): Horford put up 38.25 DraftKings points on Toronto in the first meeting, which is almost exactly 5x value. Horford has struggled against teams with mammoths in the middle, but Toronto is not one of those. Expect him right around 5x value tonight.
Greg Monroe ($6,100): Wow, who would have thought! Monroe has gotten consistent minutes lately, and he has been very consistent with his production. He has averaged 38.7 DraftKings points per game over his last five games. Not coincidentally, that was when he started playing at least 27 minutes per game. He has a good matchup with the Spurs tonight, a team that he put up 29.75 DraftKings points on in just 21 minutes in the first meeting.
Mason Plumlee ($6,100): Plumlee has quietly had a very good season out in Portland. He has averaged 32.9 DraftKings points over the last ten games, which leaves him comfortably at 5x value. That average jumps to 37 over the last five games. One of those was a 34.25 DraftKings points outing against the Lakers.
Dark Horse:
Marcin Gortat ($5,900): Gortat is solid but unspectacular, which makes him more of an advantage in cash games. In two games against the Bulls this year, Gortat has 73.75 DraftKings points. That is nearly 7x value!
Montrezl Harrell ($5,300): Harrell has set and broken a career high in points twice in the last ten days. He has played very well in the absence of Clint Capela. Harrell looks to match up better wtih Charlotte than Nene does, so he is the Houston center to ride tonight if you are going to use one. Just make sure to check us out on Twitter before the lineups lock to make sure he starts!
My pick: Monroe(C), Gortat(UTIL); Horford(C), Plumlee(UTIL)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend. We will also have the College Football Championship game prediction coming, against the spread of course!