DraftKings NBA Picks for January 11
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for January 11
We are down to six games tonight for our DraftKings tournament, but there are plenty of stars on display. Especially at point guard. We need to find value at other positions to load up on guards.
Don’t forget to follow @fantasycpr on Twitter for lineup updates as we get them leading to the tipoffs of the games! I am not always able to get back in here and fix my picks when someone sits for the night, but we will update it on Twitter.
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Most of my picks end up being a little on the conservative side, so these lineups may be better suited for cash games, though I usually play both types.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Isaiah Thomas ($8,900): Russell Westbrook is facing Memphis, who has the league’s best defense against point guards and held him to under 30 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Chris Paul is taking on the second best point guard defense. That leaves Thomas with easily the best matchup among the elite point guards. Thomas picked up 46 DraftKings points in his five game against the Wizards. I know it’s the second night of a back to back, but he should still hit 5x value.
Damian Lillard ($8,500): Lillard lit up Cleveland in the first meeting, putting up 68.25 DraftKings points on the defending champs. He has taken on less of the scoring since his return from a two week absence, so I wouldn’t expect him to go off like that again. That said, he is still a strong bet for 5x value if he did that the first time around.
Honorable Mention:
John Wall ($9,200): Wall fell short of expectations in his first meeting against Boston. He only hit 35.25 DraftKings points, which was less than 4x value. However, Boston still sits in the middle as far as point guard defense goes, and Wall could have a little easier time if Avery Bradley is out again. He could be a contrarian play since many will be on Thomas or cheaper options.
Kyrie Irving $(8,200): Irving has turned in three straight games of 5x value or more, but he did struggle a little bit against Portland the first time around. If he comes up with 33.5 DraftKings points again this time around, we are going to be disappointed, but I am not willing to just ignore how poor Portland has defended the point this year. The stats are on Kyrie’s side.
Dark Horses:
Ricky Rubio ($5,600): Rubio went off against Dallas’ tough guard defense, racking up 51.75 DraftKings points on Monday. Most of the damage was done by assists and steals, so he is a threat to do that at any time. He has also locked down the defense lately, which is why I’m avoiding Patrick Beverley. Rubio put up 34.5 DraftKings points on the Rockets the first time around. Don’t be surprised if he does it again.
Brandon Jennings ($4,900): Derrick Rose was found alive and well, and surprisingly will start tonight. So why take the chance on Jennings? Jennings played well with Rose out, and Rose has sat the bench in each of the last two fourth quarters when he was available. Rose’s stock is heading down. That’s good news for Jennings.
My pick: Rubio(PG), Jennings(G); Irving(PG)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
C.J. McCollum ($7,800): McCollum has still been carrying a lot of the load even with Lillard back. He has averaged 54 DraftKings points per game over his last four games. He has been as hot as anyone not priced over $10,000. Despite McCollum’s lackluster performance against Cleveland the first time around, I like him tonight.
Marcus Smart ($6,300): This pick is contingent on the status of Avery Bradley. With Bradley out the last two games and most of the third, Smart has racked up 39.3 DraftKings points per game in those three outings. If Bradley is held out again, Smart is a must play at this price.
Honorable Mention:
James Harden ($12,000): I am a little apprehensive about Harden. That said, he did put up 64.25 DraftKings points on Minnesota in the first meeting. Harden may not have to deal with Rubio, but LaVine is a solid defender too. However, Harden got that kind of output the first time around. And he has been on fire lately with the exception of the Memphis game. He is there if you want to pay.
Evan Fournier ($6,000): His numbers suffered in his first couple of games back after a ten day absence, but Fournier was back up to par against the Lakers on Sunday. He has a nice matchup tonight against the Clippers, who are in the bottom ten defensively against shooting guards. Fournier was playing well before the injury. Let’s see if he can get back to where he was.
Dark Horses:
Tony Allen ($4,900): Allen will never wow anyone on the offensive end, but he is scoring a lot more than he has in previous years. If you take away the clunker against Utah on Sunday (hey, everyone struggles against Utah), Allen has averaged 27 DraftKings points per game since Christmas. That puts him comfortably at 5x value.
Allen Crabbe ($4,400): Crabbe was a big part of the offense with Lillard out, and he has remained so even with Lillard back. Crabbe has at least 20 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. So long as he keeps playing around 28 minutes per game, he should get us value.
My pick: Smart(SG); McCollum(SG), Smart(G)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($9,700): Portland has been pretty tough on small forwards. Apparently James didn’t get the memo. In the first meeting between these two, James went off for 73 DraftKings points, his highest total of the season. It is unreasonable to expect a duplicate of that, but he has proven than he can handle the Portland D. 5x value looks likely.
Andrew Wiggins ($6,400): Wiggins has had a rough go of it against Dallas and Utah this week. He will look to rebound against a Houston team that he picked up 35.5 DraftKings points against in the first meeting. He should get back to 5x value after a tough early week.
Honorable Mention:
Otto Porter ($6,200): Porter absolutely abused Boston in the first meeting. He had a career game, notching 34 points and 14 rebounds en route to 72.5 DraftKings points. Boston was missing Jae Crowder in that game, but would Crowder’s presence have made a huge fifference? While I wont say he does quite that well, he should be a lock for 5x value at the least. He has hit that mark in three of the last four games.
Robert Covington ($6,000): Covington is far more valuable in DFS circles because you don’t have to worry about his percentages. Covington has 24 rebounds, three blocks, and 11 steals over his last three games. Even if his shot isn’t falling, Covington is going to get you value. He has only missed 5x value once in the last four games. He seems to be back on track.
Dark Horses:
Dario Saric ($4,600): Saric has had a quietly productive rookie season off the bench for Philadelphia. He has averaged 25.2 DraftKings points while seeing increased minutes over the last five games. There is no reason for the 76ers to play him any less, which means he is a solid source of 5x value on the cheap.
Evan Turner ($3,900): Turner is another guy that saw an increased workload with Lillard out. His minutes were reduced slightly with Lillard back, but Turner still kept up his increased output. Turner put up 26.75 DraftKings points against Cleveland in the first meeting. He is about the only Portland player who had a solid game.
Nemanja Bjelica ($3,000): This is a speculative play if Zach LaVine misses the game. He is officially listed as questionable after taking a fall on his hip against Dallas on Monday. The last time LaVine missed a game, Bjelica played 41 minutes. While that wont happen here with Shabazz Muhammed back, Bjelica will still see 30 minutes, which makes him an absolute steal, but only if LaVine sits.
My Pick: Porter(SF); Wiggins(SF), Covington(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Kevin Love ($8,100): Kevin Loves Portland. He put up 62 DraftKings points in just 31 minutes in the first meeting. Most everyone is a Cavs uniform beat up on Portland the first time around, so how do you decide who to use? Well, they are third worst in the league against power forwards. Love should eclipse 5x value with relative ease.
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,500): Porzingis, like the rest of the Knicks, had a miserable night on Monday. Derrick Rose missed the game without reason, and Carmelo Anthony and Kyle O’Quinn were tossed in the third quarter. Porzingis should have cleaned house! Instead, he missed double figures in scoring for just the third time all season. He put up 37.5 DraftKings points on Philadelphia earlier this year. This could be where he gets back on track.
Honorable Mention:
Ersan Ilyasova ($6,100): It is surprising that Ilyasova has continued to play 30 minutes per game due to the plethora of bigs in Philly. However, he is the only one besides Embiid that plays really consistent minutes. The Knicks are a tasty matchup, and Ilyasova has averaged 30.5 DraftKings points over his last ten games. He is 5x value waiting to happen.
Zach Randolph ($5,800): Randolph is averaging 32 DraftKings points per game since Christmas. He has been a consistent force off the bench and has considerably more fantasy upside than starter JaMychal Green. Randolph has two straight double doubles, and put up 34 DraftKings points the first time Memphis faced the Thunder. Look for similar output tonight.
Dark Horses:
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,100): Aminu has put together four straight games of more then 30 DraftKings points. He is finally healthy, and it really shows on the offensive end. Cleveland is right in the middle of the pack against power forwards since Love plays so much on the exterior, so Aminu at least has a shot to extend his streak.
Marreese Speights ($4,200): Speights played only 13 minutes against Orlando the first time these two teams tangled, but he racked up 19.5 DraftKings points in that short amount of court time. Even with Blake Griffin out, Speights is still only playing around 14 minutes a game. That hasn’t hurt his production much. He still has more than 20 DraftKings points in seven of his last nine games. That streak keeps going here.
Brandon Bass ($3,000): Bass put up 12 points (20 DraftKings points) in 20 minutes on a night where the whole team scored just 86 points. With Luc Richard Mbah a Moute largely underwhelming while starting for Griffin and Speights seemingly more effective with less minutes, Bass could get a good run against the Magic, who may be without Serge Ibaka. There is considerable risk in this pick, but it could pay off handsomely.
My pick: Aminu(PF), Speights(F); Randolph(PF), Speights(UTIL)
Center
Best Bets:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500): Towns abused statistically the best interior defense in the NBA on Monday night, picking up 62.75 DraftKings points against Dallas. He racked up 69.5 DraftKings points against Houston in the first meeting, and that was when Houston still had Clint Capela. Towns could be in for another huge night.
Joel Embiid ($8,000): The Sixers still haven’t unleashed the beast. Embiid has only played 30 minutes once all year, and the team has scaled him back to the mid 20’s since then. It hasn’t affected his fantasy output much. Embiid has averaged 41 DraftKings points per game since his minutes increased to 25 on a permanent basis. Look out New York!
Honorable Mention:
DeAndre Jordan ($7,000): Jordan follows two of the better interior defense with Orlando, who is in the bottom ten. He had a streak of four 40+ DraftKings points performances in five games before this tougher two game stretch. He should get back to 40 tonight.
Al Horford ($6,700): Horford has a streak of five straight games with 32 or more DraftKings points. If he gets the bare minimum, it still leaves him a shade under 5x value. However, consistency is a very good thing in the DFS universe.
Dark Horse:
Steven Adams ($5,700): Adams is in the middle of a five game streak of over 30 DraftKings points. Tonight he gets a solid Memphis interior, but one that Adams put up 29 DraftKings points on in the first meeting. He still remains the safest option in the Oklahoma City frontcourt.
Montrezl Harrell ($5,300): Harrell, regardless of whether he starts or not, has been the most consistent producer with Clint Capela out. Nene has seen his share of starts, but up until last night, Harrell has outproduced him. That’s not to say that Harrell had a bad night. He still topped 30 DraftKings points. The smart money is on Nene to start again, but Harrell is a bit less of a risk.
Nene Hilario ($3,300): Which brings us to Nene. He is still really cheap because he routinely misses value, but in games in which he starts, he always hits 5x value. Keep an eye on the starting lineup for Houston. If Nene starts, he is a solid play.
My pick: Towns(C), Embiid(UTIL); Harrell
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend. We will also have the College Football Championship game prediction coming, against the spread of course!