Duke needs Amile Jefferson back soon

For much of his career at Duke, Amile Jefferson has been content with contributing as a role player. While a top 25-RSCI recruit in 2012 himself, his first three years at Duke were defined by playing second (more like fifth) fiddle to the rolling legions of one-and-dones Coach Mike Krzyzewski was brought in to Durham while searching for another championship. Even when Duke got there — and won — in 2014-2015, the team was remembered for its trio of fabulous freshmen (Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, and Justise Winslow), while Jefferson averaged just over 20 minutes and 6 points per game.

Close observers, though, will tell you Jefferson’s lockdown defense in the second half of the title game — on Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky — was key for a team that couldn’t rely on Okafor to do the same. They’ll also tell you about the small things he brought, both to the less noticed parts of the box score and things that didn’t show up at all — finishing third in blocks and rebounds on the team that championship year, or his defensive positioning, or his leadership.

Last year looked like his chance to break out — a first round raid of Duke’s freshmen and a recruiting class less laden with surefire stars opened up the rotation for Jefferson. In just over 30 minutes per game over the first nine games, he averaged a double-double with 11.4 points and 10.3 rebounds — before going down with a foot injury that forced him to miss the rest of the season.

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After obtaining a medical redshirt, the rotation gods again smiled upon Amile. Despite an incoming freshman class ranked as the best in the nation, some early season injuries to Jayson Tatum, Marques Bolden, and Harry Giles cleared the way for him to again average big minutes. And he responded simply by playing like one of the ten best players in the country, leading Duke to a  14-2 record through Duke’s injury problems, Trip-Gate, and a coach’s back surgery — before hurting the same foot again, in an injury that’s being described as a ‘bone bruise.’

On Tuesday night, even with a relatively full complement of players (obviously, outside Jefferson) on a roster stuffed with first-round caliber talent, Duke was manhandled in Tallahassee by a surging Florida State. After Duke took a small lead with around 15 minutes left in the game, Florida State went on a run that would leave them up double-digits, and the final margin at 16 points.

With Duke at 2-2 four games into ACC conference play, and Jefferson’s status relatively murky moving forward, I wanted to take a deeper dive into what he’s been doing this season, what he brings to the team that may be missed by the traditional box score, and what we can expect from Duke if Jefferson continues to miss time.

POTY-caliber start

First, his individual contributions deserve a look. Through 16 games, Jefferson was averaging 13.6 points per game, with 10+ rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.6 blocks, and about a steal per game. He was, simply, stuffing the box score — per KenPom, his offensive efficiency, offensive and defensive rebounding rates, block rate, free throw rate, and 2-point conversion rate all ranked in the top 200 players in the country. He was doing it while upping his usage rate (21.6 percent) to a rate higher than any he had seen previously in his college career. Take a look at his individual offensive shot chart so far this year:

As always, see the bottom here for a full explanation of the methodology. Duke’s dataset is missing the Penn State and Boston College games.

Jefferson does most of his work within five feet of the rim, hitting 63 of his 90 logged shots there. While he’s shown some flash of touch from the paint and shorter midrange, hitting 9 of his 25 shots from the same, it’s not a strength.

Around the rim, though, he’s incredibly versatile. Jefferson’s been quite adept at creating his own opportunities near the basket — per hoop-math.com’s numbers, he’s only been assisted on 33 of his 73 attempts at the rim (layup, dunk, or tip-in). He creates these unassisted makes in a variety of ways — he’s hit 12 of his 16 putback attempts at the rim, and also runs well for a big. His 15 attempts at the rim in transition are tied for the lead on the team, and he’s hit nine of them so far this year.

Jefferson’s even started to flash an extended post game — he’s used 55 possessions this year as ‘post-ups,’ per data available from Synergy Sports. While he’s scored just 46 points on these 55 possessions, on 19 of 39 shooting, he still ranks in the 57th percentile for efficiency (0.836 PPP) in college basketball, and can legitimately create his own offense. This is just another added benefit for a Duke team high on talent, but somewhat playmaker starved.

His overall contribution in the box score to a top 10 team had him floating near KenPom’s top 10 ‘Player of the Year’ rankings for much of the early part of the season, and one of my favorite catch-all metrics (BPM) has him at +10.9 points per 100 possession better than an average player, a top-30 mark for guys playing significant minutes this year.

Net rating superstar

As you’d expect, Jefferson’s contributions show up best in things outside the traditional box score. Let’s start with his on-off numbers from this year, courtesy of hooplens.com.

Both the offense and defense have been much better with Jefferson on the floor — especially after last night. The offense jumps about 15 points per 100 possessions, while he helps the defense to the tune of a seven-point improvement per 100 possessions. His net on-off rating of 35 points per 100 possessions ranks as the best on the team outside seldom used reserves Antonio Vrankovic and Javin DeLaurier.

And it’s not a new trend this year. Duke was SIGNIFICANTLY better — again, on both ends of the floor — in the nine games Amile managed last year before going down with the foot injury. Check out the below chart, again via hooplens.com.

His net rating again led the team. And while there’s a clear trickle down effect on the rotation in the games he wasn’t playing — the team will clearly be worse if both one of its best players is unavailable, and as a consequence, worse players will take his place up and down the rotation — it speaks to Duke’s ceiling as a team when Jefferson isn’t (and is) in there.

So what’s he doing that helps so much?

He ‘assists’ the offense

Jefferson’s presence on the floor is a boon to Duke’s overall ball movement. While his 2.2 assists per game and 12.8 percent assist rate both rank as career highs, there’s more going on than just his individual assist numbers. With Amile off the floor this year, Duke has been assisting on 44.3 percent of its made baskets, a mark that would rank in the bottom-20 of the entire country. When he’s on the floor, they make a huge jump — 50.3 percent of baskets are assisted, which would ‘bump’ the Dukies to the top two-thirds of the country — not outstanding, but respectable. Jefferson is a willing passer, and much further along in the development of his understanding of the offensive game than any of his much younger rotation mates at the 4 or 5. He helps unlock a far less iso-heavy style for this Duke squad.

Turnover creation and prevention

Duke has been solid at both preventing (16.1 percent TO rate, 27th in the country) and forcing (20.3 percent defensive TO rate, 99th in the country) turnovers this year as an overall team. However, they take jumps on both ends when Amile Jefferson is on the floor. In his minutes so far this year, Duke is turning the ball over on just 15.1 percent of its possessions — a rate that would be top-10 in the country. And it’s forcing turnovers on 22.1 percent of its possessions on the defensive end while he’s in (top-30 in the country). His presence helps the team ‘take care’ of the ball — on both ends — in a big way.

3-pointers — on both ends

Jefferson has really helped the team from beyond the 3-point arc on both ends. While he neither takes nor defends the 3-ball, the team has been doing significantly better in telling marks on both ends. When Jefferson’s in the game, Duke’s 3-point percentage on offense shoots up to 39.7 percent — an incredible mark. When he’s out? Just 31.0 percent, which would rank near the bottom in the country. While some of this is certainly down to garbage time in wins, as he plays just under 30 minutes per game (when he’s not hurt), it’s a huge jump that would take Duke from one of the best shooting teams in the country to one of the worst. His willingness to pass and post-up almost certainly contribute to creating wide open looks from deep. And he really helps in preventing 3-pointers on the other end — per Ken Pomeroy, the part of 3-point defense that teams have the most control over. Duke’s opponent 3PA/FGA when he’s on the floor is 28 percent — when he’s off, it jumps to 32.3 percent.

The Obligatory ‘More Shot Charts’ Section

If you’ve read my stuff before (and you should!), you probably know I love to do on-off shot charts to help visualize what a team is gaining/losing when a player is on or off the floor. So prepared below are Duke’s defensive and offensive shot charts, compared side-by-side, for when Amile Jefferson is both on the floor and off the floor.

On the defensive end — a stark effect can be seen near the basket. In the zone I defined around the rim — which encompasses all shots logged within feet feet of the basket — lineups including Jefferson have held opponents to a 54.33 percent rate, well below the D-I average of 60.21 percent. When he’s off the floor, that number shoots to 62.6 percent — obviously creeping above the D-I average around the rim. His defensive positioning and shot-blocking make a huge difference for the Blue Devils around the rim.

Amile’s presence also tells near the rim on offense. While Duke lands above average within five feet of the basket in general, the team hits 67.44 percent of its rim attempts while he’s on the floor, and just 62.86 percent while he’s out. You can also graphically see his noted-above effect at the 3-point line in this chart — in the logged shots, Duke has hit 91 of their 235 attempts (38.72 percent) from beyond the arc while he’s on the floor, and just 30 of 98 (30.61 percent) while he’s off.

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With more Grayson Allen shenanigans on Tuesday, and the indefinite absence of Coach Mike Krzyzewski as he recovers from back surgery, Duke is in a tough spot. They already have two league losses within the first four games, and have a trip to top-10 opponent Louisville on tap. Even with all the talent they have, and the likelihood the young guys will be better by the end of the year, continuing to rack up losses will hurt their seeding in the tournament and make any potential path to a deep postseason run more difficult. Duke needs Amile Jefferson back as soon as they can get him — he’s just that important to them.