DraftKings NBA Picks for January 13
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for January 13
We are up to nine games for our Friday the 13th DraftKings tournaments! There are stars galore tonight! Who is worth paying for? Should we get totally crazy with our picks?
Don’t forget to follow @fantasycpr on Twitter for lineup updates as we get them leading to the tipoffs of the games! I am not always able to get back in here and fix my picks when someone sits for the night, but we will update it on Twitter.
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Most of my picks end up being a little on the conservative side, so these lineups may be better suited for cash games, though I usually play both types.
If you want a second opinion, head on over to Fantasypros. They will use their algorithm to help you find the best bang for the buck. They can also be customized to do the turbo and late tournaments, and they will also build around your favorite stack!
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($12,700): I’m tempted to fade Westbrook because he is going to be so widely owned, but look deeper into the numbers, and I may be on to something. In two games against Minnesota this year, Westbrook has 120.25 DraftKings points. Great totals, but at this astronomical price, it still comes up just shy of 5x value. Add the fact that Rubio and the Timberwolves have locked down guards lately, and I see Westbrook in the high 50’s. A good total, but not enough to hit 5x.
Isaiah Thomas ($9,000): His price if getting out of hand, but that happens when you have three 50+ point DraftKings games out of the last five. Atlanta is statistically the worst team in the league defending the point. Thomas could come close to Westbrook’s output tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Kyle Lowry ($8,500): Lowry put up 48 DraftKings points on the Nets in their first meeting. It is looking more and more likely the Jeremy Lin will be out again, which makes Lowry even more of a target. Since his disaster against the Spurs on January 3, Lowry has averaged 50.9 DraftKings points per game.
Mike Conley ($7,100): Conley is largely ignored in DFS circles, but he is about as consistent as they come. He has averaged 37.5 DraftKings points over his last ten games. In the first meeting with Houston, Conley picked up 38.75 DraftKings points. Expect him in that area again tonight.
Dennis Schroder ($6,800): Schroder has seven consecutive games of over 30 DraftKings points, not to mention a good matchup with Boston. Don’t expect huge numbers, but he should be in the 30’s again.
Dark Horses:
Ricky Rubio ($6,100): Do you take Rubio’s 29 DraftKings points in the first meeting as an indicator, or his 94 DraftKings points over the last two games? Rubio has 32 assists in the last two games alone! He is rolling right now, and could perform well above his price once again!
Tyler Johnson ($5,300): Johnson has played more than 28 minutes in each of his last ten games, and has scored over 5x value in all but one of them. He is a very low risk option with a high ceiling, even in what looks like a tougher matchup with Milwaukee. Johnson picked up a respectable 25.5 DraftKings points against them in the first meeting in only 22 minutes!
My pick: Rubio(PG), Johnson(G); Lowry(PG), Conley(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($11,400): Memphis is statistically bad against shooting guards, but the Beard only put up 50.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting against the Grizzlies. That said, Harden only took 13 shots in that first meeting, and he had 17 assists. Expect more shots tonight. He is a slightly safer – and cheaper – option than Westbrook.
C.J. McCollum ($7,900): McCollum continued his hot play in the dismantling of the Cavs on Wednesday. C.J. has now averaged 50 DraftKings points per contest over his last six games. Orlando is in the bottom ten in defense of shooting guards. It could be another big game for McCollum.
Honorable Mention:
Marcus Smart ($6,300): Smart struggled with his shot on Wednesday against the Wizards, which led to a subpar night for him. However, Avery Bradley is still out, which means Smart gets another start – and another 35 minutes of court time- against the fourth worst shooting guard defense in the league. Expect Smart to rebound in a big way here.
Malcolm Brogdon ($5,700): Brogdon’s minutes have taken a bit of a hit with the return of Matthew Dellavedova to the fold, but the production has not. Brogdon has averaged 33.5 DraftKings points over the last six games. Expect him to remain somewhere in that area since he is still outplaying Dellavedova.
Dark Horses:
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,800): Hardaway is the future at SG for Atlanta, even though Thabo Sefalosha is still seeing quite a few minutes. Hardaway has three straight games of 24 or more DraftKings points. He is growing into the more advanced role afforded him by the trade of Kyle Korver, and is still a bargain play at this price. Boston isn’t quite as intimidating without Avery Bradley.
Dion Waiters ($4,400): Josh Richardson has already been ruled out for tonight. With Richardson out on Wednesday, Waiters played 38 minutes and piled up 27.25 DraftKings points. He picked up 37.75 DraftKings points in 35 minutes against the Bucks earlier this season. Waiters looks like a strong play tonight.
Marco Belinelli ($4,000): Belinelli could be in line for a ton of minutes with Jeremy Lamb out and Nicolas Batum still questionable. It is believed that Batum will play, but all of the spare minutes will go to Belinelli tonight, who can put up points in a hurry. He picked up 19.25 DraftKings points in 21 minutes against the Sixers the first time around. Expect him around 5x value again.
My pick: McCollum(SG); Brogdon(SG), Waiters(UTIL)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($9,700): James has not been below 43 DraftKings points since before Christmas, and he has been over 5x value in six of the nine games in that span. Sacramento is in the bottom ten against small forwards, so it may be a good night to snub all of the five figure guys and build around the King.
Gordon Hayward ($7,000): Hayward’s price has plummeted during his recent poor stretch, but he has got back on track over the last two games. He was an astonishing 10-12 from the floor against Cleveland on Tuesday. Detroit is solid against small forwards, but nothing special. Hayward should reach 5x value at this price.
Honorable Mention:
Robert Covington ($5,800): Covington continues to put up solid numbers, even if they are a bit down from last year. It comes with the territory of having star teammates. He is averaging 33.2 DraftKings points over the last five games, and with a Charlotte team that is beat up on the wing, Covington shoudl have no issues reaching 5x value tonight.
Aaron Gordon ($5,700): Gordon still has the occasional clunker like he did against the Lakers last weekend, but he has also posted more than 32 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. The Magic are willing to let him learn on the job, so there will be the occasional hiccup, but he has amazing upside for this price.
Dark Horses:
DeMarre Carroll ($4,500): Carroll has played more than 34 minutes in each of the last four games after being treated with kid gloves for most of the season Carroll has averaged 25 DraftKings points over that span. He put up 25.25 DraftKings points on Brooklyn the first time around. He should have no issues piling up over 5x value.
Maurice Harkless ($4,400): Harkless has only missed 5x value once in the last eight games. That can be excused since it was against a strong Detroit team. Orlando is decent at small forward, but so long as Harkless is this cheap, he is a certain 5x value unless he is up against one of the best SF defenses.
Shabazz Muhammad ($4,100): Muhammad put up 31.25 DraftKings points with Zach LaVine sidelined on Wednesday. He is questionable for tonight, but to me it looks like they are going to hold him out. LaVine received treatment instead of practicing yesterday. That doesn’t look like someone about to play. Stay glued to us on Twitter for updates just in case LaVine plays.
My Pick: Covington(SF); James(SF), Carroll(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,300): Since Kevin Love is out on the perimeter so much, Boogie may have free reign on the inside. Only Golden State and Miami have kept Cousins under 5x value over the last ten games. They are both in the top five in interior defenses. Cleveland is pretty good, but pretty good wont stop Cousins.
Paul Millsap ($7,600): Millsap has averaged 42 DraftKings points per game over his last seven since an embarrassing game against the Timberwolves on December 26th. He has been producing against everyone lately, and Boston has had issues at PF. This could be a big night for MIllsap.
Honorable Mention:
Serge Ibaka ($6,200): Early news out of Orlando says that Ibaka will play tonight, which is good news for DFS payers. Portland is statistically the worst power forward defense in the league (though they did a number on Kevin Love Wednesday night). Ibaka has averaged 35.8 DraftKings points per game over his last ten. Assuming he gets a full compliment of minutes, he should hit that total against Portland.
James Johnson ($5,700): Johnson has quietly been one of the most consistent producers of the last six weeks in the NBA. He has averaged 27.1 DraftKings points per game in that time, which means he promises 5x value every time he takes the court. He has little upside, but if you need a sure thing, Johnson is it.
Dark Horses:
Ryan Anderson ($5,300): Houston keeper their sharp shooter on the court at least 32 minutes a game, and usually more. Anderson lit up the Grizzlies in their first meeting. He abused Memphis for 46.75 DraftKings points against them. He only has four games of 5x value or more in his last ten, but past history is on his side if you want to roll the dice.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,300): Aminu has five consecutive games in the 30’s for DraftKings points agianst a variety of different opponents on the interior. His rebounding has been outstanding lately, which enables him to retain value against anyone. Aminu is pretty much a sure thing right now.
Spencer Hawes ($4,300): Hawes spent most of November as an afterthought for Charlotte, but he has played his way back into the rotation. Over the last four games, Hawes has averaged 26 minutes per game and 26 DraftKings points per game. As long as he keeps getting minutes, he is a great bargain.
My pick: Millsap(PF), Johnson(F); Aminu(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Hassan Whiteside ($8,400): Whiteside piled up 50.25 DraftKings points on MIlwaukee in the first game. Monroe may give him a little more trouble than John Henson did, but I wouldn’t count heavily on it. Whiteside punished the Warriors on Wednesday to the tune of 61.5 DraftKings points. It was welcoming sign after struggling with the Clippers in his first game back after missing a couple of games. He should be good to go tonight.
Joel Embiid ($8,100): Embiid will take Saturday off for rest, which means he will be deployed for his normal 30 minutes against an average Charlotte interior tonight. Embiid has done an awful lot of damage in his 30 minutes. He has averaged 43 DraftKings points per game since he hit the 28 minute threshold eight games ago. His ceiling is still the high 40’s, but Embiid has been right at 5x value for most of the last three weeks.
Honorable Mention:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400): Towns dominated Texas this week, putting up 62.75 DraftKings points on Dallas and another 59.5 on Houston. Now he gets another crack at Oklahoma (City) who has been tough on Towns this year. In two games, Towns only has 77 DraftKings points. Of course, that is well below 5x value. However, with the way Towns has played lately, it may be worth using him due to what will likely be a low ownership rate.
Dwight Howard ($7,400): The consistency of Millsap has finally worn off on Howard. Aside from being dominated by the Spurs on New Year’s Day, Howard has averaged 40 DraftKings points per game over his last ten. As we mentioned before, Boston has some issues on the interior. Howard is a good bet for 5x value, and is much less of a risk than he was early on.
Brook Lopez ($6,600): Lopez has averaged 33.6 DraftKings points over the last three games. The caveat is that he couldn’t be consistently counted on before this little outburst. That said, Toronto is weak on the interior, so look for another game right at 5x value for BroLo.
Dark Horses:
Greg Monroe ($5,900): Monroe didn’t even play in the first game against the Heat. After an unsuccessful run as the starter, John Henson has been supplanted by Monroe, who has responded with six consecutive games of at least 5x value. As much of a terror as Whiteside is around the basket, he can be taken advantage of by athletes, which is what Monroe is. He is a lock for 5x value, and likely more.
Steven Adams ($5,700): Enes Kanter usually is talked about more, but Adams is the consistent force in the middle for the Thunder. Adams has averaged 35 DraftKings points per game over the last six contests. He has also averaged 33.8 DraftKings points in two games against Minnesota this year. You know what you are getting from Adams.
Tristan Thompson ($4,700): Yes, Jonas Valanciunas gets a matchup against the worst interior defense in the Nets, but I will pay $1,200 less and get the constency of Thompson against the 29th ranked interior defense of the Kings. Thompson has picked up 110 DraftKings points over his last four games. Don’t be surprised if it is up to 140 by the end of tonight.
My pick: Adams(C), Monroe(UTIL); Thompson(C)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend!