DraftKings Premier League Fantasy Daily Picks – January 14
By David Gate
Seven games on Saturday’s main EPL DFS slate this weekend. Get your lineup set for tomorrow morning’s action with today’s DraftKings daily picks.
This is a blog of tips, picks and strategy for Premier League Daily Fantasy. The aim of these articles is to provide DFS players with an edge through delving into stats and news to give your lineup the best possible chance of making money on DraftKings.
I will also be doing the same for FanDuel. While a lot of information will be applicable to both sites I will tailor lineups according each site’s scoring systems.
It is crucial to remember that, unlike US sports, the EPL has no official injury reports or designations. The information is usually out there but it is not as simple as looking for an official report. There is also a high amount of rotation within the squads meaning there are often surprises on the team sheets. Teams release their lineups 45 minutes to an hour before kick off. It is paramount you check these team sheets before you finalize your lineup. The DFS sites won’t list designations like they do for NFL or NBA sports as a player could be on the bench. I will list changes to my DFS lineups on Twitter at @DavidGateSports and @FantasyCPR
The key to all DFS sports is value. Getting the most points out of every dollar spent. The EPL contests are still quite new to these sites but it seems that 4 points for every $1k of budget will be a high scoring lineup.
My picks are ranked out of three stars for each position to give you an idea of how confident I am in that pick.
* One Star = high floor players who will get adequate value
** Two Stars = players with a higher upside and good matchup
*** Three Stars = excellent pick with a strong matchup
Goalkeepers
Tom Heaton – Burnley (4400) ***
Heaton is fantastic value this weekend. Burnley have been imperious at Turf Moor, having a better home record than both Manchester teams. A huge part of this has been the form of Tom Heaton who has 6+ saves in 7 games this year. He also has a great matchup with Southampton who have struggled to find the net this year.
Artur Boruc – Bournemouth (5000)**
Bournemouth have conceded a lot this season — especially away from home — so I would heed a note of caution about gaining the clean sheet bonus. That being said, his matchup is ideal. Hull are among the lowest scorers in the league and have recently changed managers. New managers can sometimes make an immediate impact defensively but it is much harder to get them scoring at will. Hull played midweek in the League Cup meaning less rest and preparation for this matchup.
Heurelho Gomes (5100)** – Watford
I am very high on Watford this weekend at home to Middlesborough. This is a good game to chase the clean sheet bonus with low scoring Boro only managing 8 goals away from home this season. You’ll need to check on Saturday to see who starts but I would not replace Gomes with Pantilimon if the former is not fit to start. A better pivot would be Darren Randolph (5200)**
Defenders
Monreal (5100)***, Koscielny (4100)** & Mustafi (3600)** – Arsenal
Nacho Monreal stands out in the match up against Swansea as I expect Arsenal to dominate offensively and for the left back to be heavily involved especially with Özil returning. If Arsenal get up early by a couple of goals then the second half could see home side Swansea trying to find big striker Llorente early and often, creating lots of clearance opportunities for Arsenal centerbacks Koscielny & Mustafi. It will be worth watching who the fourth defender is in the Arsenal lineup with Bellerin out. I am not interested if it is Gabriel (3300) as I think there is no value for a makeshift right back. If it is Carl Jenkinson (4400)** then I think the value is there and the risk is lower.
Marcos Alonso (5900)*** & Gary Cahill (3600)***
I am high on these Chelsea backs for different reasons. DraftKings continues to list Alonso as a Defender even though he is playing left wing back essentially placing him as midfielder like his right sided counterpart Victor Moses. The huge upside is that he can get all the opportunity to create that MID players do whilst cashing in on the DraftKings clean sheet bonus. Gary Cahill is the cheapest of the Chelsea defensive starters and I am anticipating a clean sheet for the Blues against sluggish Leicester City. I would be happy to pair him with Luiz (3900)** or Azpilicueta (4200)** if you’re looking to stack defenders cheaply.
Prödl (3100)*, Kaboul (2800)* & Britos (3000)* – Watford
Watford spread the DraftKings points evenly amongst their backs. All of these players represent high floor, low ceiling picks. I would lean towards either Prödl or Kaboul as they are more likely to grab a goal from a corner.
Midfielders
Note: I had Dimitri Payet (9,100) – West Ham as my top midfield pick this week but after his transfer request I am leaving him out of all lineups on DraftKings & FanDuel. Even if he is selected I think the risk is too great at that price for him to play good minutes and produce.
Mesut Özil (8900) – Arsenal ***
After missing the last two EPL games with illness Özil is expected to return to Saturday’s lineup. He has an excellent match up with Swansea who have been easy pickings for teams this season. With both Giroud and Sanchez playing well I’m expecting him to rack up the chances created and to grab an assist or two. I have one red flag: Does he play good minutes? I think if it’s a close game then he plays 70+ minutes and if the Gunners are winning at a canter then he plays fewer minutes but it’s very likely already contributed heavily.
Yohan Cabaye (6300) – Crystal Palace***
The creative Frenchman is my favorite midfield pick for value. Cabaye is going to see a lot of the ball with Zaha away at the African Nations Cup and West Ham missing Noble and possibly Payet & Antonio too. Man City manager Pep Guardiola recently commented how easy his team found it on the big Olympic Stadium pitch. Expect Cabaye to have the run of East London. I also like Jason Puncheon (6200)** for this game.
Hazard (9600)**, Willian (7300)** & Moses (7000)** – Chelsea
The Blues should rebound confidently from their loss to Tottenham in the last gameweek. While Leicester have been much better at home than away this year I think the title hunting Chelsea have few problems coming away with a decisive win. Because Chelsea play only one Forward the midfield usually picks up the slack with goals, chances and assists. These three players represent solid picks for their price points.
Joe Allen (6600) – Stoke*
Allen has seen a dip in production in the last three games, tempering his blistering start to the season. He still ranks in the top 10 for his position in interceptions, fouls drawn and goals scored. Stoke travel to Sunderland this week who tend play deeper and allow the opposition to have plenty of the ball. Allen has a high floor with some good upside.
Forwards
Callum Wilson (6,200) – Bournemouth***
Wilson is one of my top picks on the whole slate. Hull are one of the worst home teams in the EPL surrendering 20 goals to visiting teams making the Bournemouth forwards great options. The Tigers conceded 9 penalties in the first half of the season — one every other game — and Callum Wilson is the Cherries’ reliable man from the spot. I would also be confident in Joshua King (5700)** and would consider stacking them for a good value frontline.
Sánchez (10,300) ** & Giroud** (8000) – Arsenal
Along with Diego Costa (9,400)* the Gunners pair make the three high-end plays in the Forward position this week. With Swansea giving goals away like candy at Halloween, I am picking the Arsenal strikers. There should be plenty of chances, shots , goals and assists to go round. If Özil does start then I am plumping for Sánchez over Giroud as he tends hog more of the shooting when he plays further forward. It is also possible that Giroud starts on the bench with Sanchez up front. However I’m expecting Wenger to be confident and start all three of his goal threats.
Troy Deeney (6000) – Watford**
I was high on Watford players this week before the sudden death of club legend Graham Taylor. Now with the game starting with a minute’s applause and a fired-up, emotional crowd I anticipate Watford to come out flying. Deeney is a passionate player anyway but the charged atmosphere at Vicarage Road on Saturday should see an energetic performance.
My DraftKings Lineup Gameweek 21:
GK: Tom Heaton – Burnley
DEF: Gary Cahill – Chelsea
DEF: Nacho Monreal – Arsenal
MID: Eden Hazard – Chelsea
MID: Joe Allen – Stoke
FWD: Oliver Giroud – Arsenal
FWD: Callum Wilson – Bournemouth
UTIL: Yohan Cabaye – Crystal Palace
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Good Luck today FanDuel EPL players!