NBA weekly betting trends: Ice-cold Heat not a hot bet
By Jeff Glauser
A lot can change in three years. Just ask the Miami Heat.
Flash back to 2014 in the NBA. The Heat were the league’s “super team” with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. They would win a fourth straight Eastern Conference title before getting upset in the Finals by the San Antonio Spurs. That simply seemed like a bit of a hiccup as the Heat were poised to dominate for years with their three future Hall of Famers.
Except, of course, LeBron left for Cleveland, Wade’s in Chicago, Bosh isn’t playing and the Heat have the second-worst record in the East at 11-30. They haven’t been a great team to bet on at SportsBookReview Forum’s top sportsbooks, either, with a 15-24-2 mark against the spread. Things aren’t likely to get any better any time soon.
Few teams have been more gutted by injuries this season than the Heat. Bosh will likely never play for the franchise again because of a recurrence of blood clots that cut short his previous two seasons. Meanwhile, young promising forward Justise Winslow is out for the season after shoulder surgery. Josh Richardson, Josh McRoberts and Dion Waiters have all missed significant time, as well, leading to Miami players having missed 162 games due to injury/illness this season, the most in the NBA.
With this season already lost, expect the Heat to go into full tank mode, trade what assets they have and then rebuild through the draft and free agency. Miami will always be a top destination for free agents thanks to the weather, social scene and no state income tax. Oh, and Pat Riley. Point guard Goran Dragic would bring back a solid return, currently averaging 19.0 points and 6.4 assists. The 2017 draft is loaded with point guard prospects so the Heat, with a likely top-5 pick, could replace him that way.
All of this makes the Heat a hot team—to bet against. They open a four-game homestand Tuesday against James Harden and the Houston Rockets. Normally, playing at home is a good thing, but Miami is just 5-12-1 ATS there this season (fewest home wins in the league). The Dallas Mavericks, Milwaukee Bucks and Golden State Warriors follow Houston to South Beach and only against the Mavericks will the Heat have a chance to be favored.
Next: 5 trade destinations for Goran Dragic
Miami enters the week having dropped four straight and 10 of 11. It is 5-19 when an opponent scores triple digits and 3-25 when trailing after three quarters. All this amounts to a good chance of making money if you wager on beating the Heat.