DraftKings NBA Picks for January 17
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for January 17
My computer and I are (mostly) thawed and ready to get back on the DFS horse! We have five games on Tuesday night for our big DraftKings tournaments. Most of the stars are off, but there are a couple lurking out there. Are they worth using? Tonight looks like a night that will be decided by the under the radar picks. Let’s try and find some value!
Don’t forget to follow @fantasycpr on Twitter for lineup updates as we get them leading to the tipoffs of the games! I am not always able to get back in here and fix my picks when someone sits for the night, but we will update it on Twitter.
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Most of my picks end up being a little on the conservative side, so these lineups may be better suited for cash games, though I usually play both types.
Both lineups made it into the money last night. Maybe the secret is to stop changing them!
If you want a second opinion, head on over to Fantasypros. They will use their algorithm to help you find the best bang for the buck. They can also be customized to do the turbo and late tournaments, and they will also build around your favorite stack!
If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $20 worth of free entry tickets. We have plenty of advice on the site to help you turn that into a solid bankroll!
Point Guards
Best Bets:
Kyle Lowry ($8,600): In two games against Brooklyn this year, Lowry has 92.5 DraftKings points. That is well above 5x value. As long as this game doesn’t turn into a blowout, Lowry should still see around 35 minutes. That gives him plenty of time to rack up points.
D’Angelo Russell ($7,000): His hot streak is over, but he still put up a respectable 32.75 against Detroit over the weekend. He struggled against the Clippers and Spurs, but Denver has given up a lot of points to point guards. Russell is still a bit of a risk because of consistency issues, but I wouldn’t worry too much about that with Denver. Elfrid Payton lit them up last night. You can bet Russell will do the same.
Honorable Mention:
Ricky Rubio ($5,900): It hasn’t mattered who Rubio has tangled with lately. He is producing at far above his price range. Over the last four games, Rubio has averaged 43 DraftKings points per game. That is 8x value!
Tyler Johnson ($5,600): Right now, I trust Johnson more than starter Goran Dragic to reach the value point. Dragic has only hit 5x value once in the last five games. Johnson has done it in three straight and seven of eight. The Heat are getting healthy, but they are also committed to playing Johnson about 30 minutes per game. That is more than enough court time for him to hit the value point.
Dark Horses:
Spencer Dinwiddie ($3,900): Jeremy Lin is still out, which leaves plenty of minutes for Dinwiddie. He picked up 24.25 DraftKings points against Toronto on Friday. There is nothing to suggest that he wont get 25-28 minutes once again.
Cory Joseph ($3,400): Joseph does carry a risk since he doesn’t start, but the Bulls’ situation isn’t a fluid one, and they are playing a really good Dallas perimeter defense. I will turn the page to Joseph, who has 60.25 DraftKings points in two games against Brooklyn so far. Both games have gotten out of hand, which has led to increased minutes for Joseph in those. You are essentially betting that this will turn in to a blowout if you expect him to hit 30 again.
My pick: Rubio(PG), Dinwiddie(G); Russell(PG), Johnson(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($12,200): Harden struggled against Memphis, but what else do you expect from the best guard defense in the league? He is a threat to go off against anyone, but the last two top five defenses he has played (Memphis and Orlando) have held him under 45 DraftKings points. Miami is sixth, so he could face a similar fate tonight.
Dwyane Wade ($6,500): DeMar DeRozan has a better matchup on paper, but he has struggled against Brooklyn this year. I will go for Wade instead. Wade has over 5x value in four straight games. He should be well rested after sitting out Sunday. Wade should be in line for another game in the 30’s.
Honorable Mention:
Zach LaVine ($6,000): LaVine isn’t the most consistent producer, but he may have the highest ceiling in this price range. LaVine had a solid game against the Spurs in the first meeting, putting up 32.25 DraftKings points in that one. However, he did look a little rusty in his return to the court on Sunday.
Dion Waiters ($5,300): Waiters has played over 30 minutes in the last two games, so he seems to be back in the swing of things after missing the entire month of December. Waiters has yet to really find his shot yet. He is only 9-34 from the field in the last two games, but he has still been able to top 5x value in each game due to his passing ability.
Dark Horses:
Wesley Matthews ($5,000): Matthews is streaky, and he is on a hot streak right now. He has 63.75 DraftKings points over his last two games. He also put up 38.75 DraftKings points in his first meeting against the Bulls. Can he keep his hot streak going?
Lou Williams ($4,300): Denver struggles against spot shooters, which is essentially what Williams is. He torched Detroit for 37.75 DraftKings points on Saturday night. If he gets hot from the floor again, you know he is capable of it. The matchup with Denver certainly looks good on paper.
My pick: Waiters(SG); Wade(SG), Matthews(UTIL)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
Jimmy Butler ($9,100): In two games since his return from nearly a week long sickness, Butler has 99.5 DraftKings points. One of those games was against a Memphis squad that is very solid on defense. I think it’s safe to say that he’s feeling better. Dallas is a pretty tough defensive squad as well, but Butler took them for 45.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting.
Kawhi Leonard ($8,800): Leonard is on a roll right now. He has three straight games of more than 30 points which has translated to 145 DraftKings points. Minnesota has done a very good job defending the small forward position, but Leonard put up 42.75 on the Timberwolves in the first meeting. With the hot streak he is on, Leonard could come close to 5x value.
Honorable Mention:
Harrison Barnes ($6,400): Barnes had been on quite a roll until he tangled with Minnesota on Saturday. Prior to that game, he has seven straight games of 5x value. Minnesota is a top five defense against small forwards, so we can forgive that game. Barnes should have a much better go of it against Chicago, a team that he scored 32.75 DraftKings points against in the first meeting.
DeMarre Carroll ($5,200): Carroll has been on an absolute tear lately. He has averaged 32 DraftKings points over his last four games. The minutes restriction finally seems to be off, and Carroll finally seems to be healthy. He has scored 60 DraftKings points on Brooklyn in two games so far this year. Don’t be shocked if he does it again.
Dark Horses:
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($3,800): Hollis-Jefferson is not really a part of the offense at all, but he makes up for it with his defense. He has 47.75 DraftKings points on two meetings with the Raptors so far this year. RHJ has a low ceiling, but his floor seems to be high enough that he wont torpedo your lineup.
Brandon Ingram ($3,600): There is a huge risk involved in this one as Ingram has been mostly inconsistent all season. However, he still has a lot of upside. On a smaller slate, sometimes it takes landing a dart throw to separate yourself from the pack. A Laker dart throw against a Denver team that wants to run you out of the building isn’t a horrible idea.
My Pick: Butler(SF), Carroll(F); Barnes(SF), Carroll(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,300): This is a position that is littered with players that struggled in their previous matchups with tonight’s opponents. Towns kind of did as well relative to his price. He only put up 39.5 DraftKings points on the Spurs in the first meeting, which would qualify as a big disappointment at this price. That said, Towns in one of the few that is always a threat to perform well above his price range.
Honorable Mention:
Dirk Nowitzki ($6,100): Nowitzki is not the force he once was, but he is still much better than this price indicates. Dirk has 105.75 DraftKings points over the last three games. The Bulls aren’t particularly strong in the middle, so he has a great chance at keeping up that kind of production.
James Johnson ($6,100): Johnson has averaged 36.2 DraftKings points over the last seven games when he has seen more minutes. Johnson’s strong play has been a nice surprise for the Heat and fantasy players alike. His low point in that span has been 27.5 DraftKings points, so he has a pretty high floor as well.
Dark Horses:
Kenneth Faried ($4,400): Faried has picked up 62.5 DraftKings points over the last two games. He has seen his minutes increase lately, but who knows how long that will last. All we know is that Faried plays well when he plays. At this price, he should hit 5x value with anything over 20 minutes.
Justin Hamilton ($3,400): After a strong November, Hamilton cooled off for a while. However, he is back to a strong role off the bench for the Nets. He has 44.25 DraftKings points in two games against Toronto this year. If he can hit that average, he will be a great value at this price.
My pick: Johnson(PF); Nowitzki(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Nikola Jokic ($8,100): Jokic’s price has gone up $1,200 in just three games! Its about time. Jokic has eight consecutive games of more than 5x value, and most of those have been way over. Three have been 50 DraftKings points or more. Jokic has a very high floor right now, and the sky seems to be the limit.
Honorable Mention:
Brook Lopez ($6,300): Lopez has been one of the most consistent fantasy players at any position or price lately. He has been between 32 and 36 DraftKings points over each of his last four games. One of those was against Toronto. He has averaged 34.8 DraftKings points on the Raptors in two games this year. You know exactly what you are getting from him tonight.
Jonas Valanciunas ($6,200): Valanciunas has racked up 118.25 DraftKings points in three games since regaining his starting job. He is performing at a high level right now. Valanciunas shouldn’t have much of a problem staying there against statistically the worst defense against centers in the league.
Dark Horses:
Montrezl Harrell ($5,200): A lot of people are going to be off of Harrell because of the matchup with Hassan Whiteside. While Whiteside is an elite shot blocker, he isn’t that dominant in other defensive areas. Harrell has been over 5x value in all but three games since Clint Capela went down. Expect this to be another one of them. Just make sure that you keep an eye on Capela’s status. He returned to practice yesterday.
Lucas Nogueira ($4,100): The Raptors have been experimenting with using both Nogueira and Valanciunas at the same time. This has led to mixed results so far, but it worked like a charm against the Nets on Friday. Nogueira picked up 31.25 DraftKings points in that one.
My pick: Jokic(C), Lopez(UTIL); Jokic(C)
Next: FanDuel NBA Picks For January 17
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend!