Justin Jackson’s newfound 3-point shot makes him UNC’s go-to guy

Up until this year, Justin Jackson’s career at North Carolina had been something of a disappointment. When the shy, gentle giant of a wing arrived on campus in the summer of 2014, there were whispers the 9th ranked RSCI recruit — with a sweet-looking shooting stroke and length for days (he’s 6-foot-8, with a 6-foot-11 wingspan) — could be a one-and-done talent.

But while he stepped right into a key role for the Tar Heels, averaging nearly 27 minutes and over 10 points a game in his freshman campaign, his game never really came together. He thrived in North Carolina’s transition-driven offensive system, taking close to a third of his shots within 10 seconds of a possession change, but his outside game never materialized. He made only 28 of his 90 3-point attempts on the season, good for 30.4 percent on just 2.4 attempts per game.

At times, Jackson appeared allergic to the more physically demanding parts of the game. Despite his size, he pulled in less than 10 percent of the available defensive rebounds while he was on the floor. And, all too often, he appeared content to settle for mid-range attempts and floaters rather than challenging defenders; despite finishing at a 66.7 percent clip on shots near the rim, Jackson attempted less than a fifth of his shots there in his freshman year.

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When he came back for his sophomore year, it was much the same story. He hit 29.2 percent of his 120 3-pointers on the season on just 0.6 more attempts per game, and mainly stuck to the same comfort zones on offense — transition, and the mid-range. Take a look at his shot chart from last year, shown below.

As always, check the bottom of this article for an explanation of the methodology. North Carolina was missing the Texas game and the NC State game (2/24/16) from last year’s dataset.

Jackson took about a third of his shots from the mid-range areas — the paint, and the short and long mid-range. And while he was above average in these areas, hitting 40.16 percent of the logged attempts, he wasn’t TJ Warren-esque. In fact, his dismal 32 for 115 (27.83 percent) showing from 3-point range in the logged games still carried a higher effective field goal percentage (41.74 percent) than his preferred mid-range spots.

It was certainly successful — his 119.0 offensive rating ranked in the top 150 in the nation, per KenPom, and North Carolina made it to the title game — but it was also frustrating at times. A player with his size and apparent talent could (and maybe should) be more assertive. Jackson barely cleared a 20.4 percent usage rating for the Heels in 2015-2016, and maintained rebounding and foul drawing rates similar to his freshman campaign. After a heartbreaking loss in the national championship game, he took advantage of the new early entry rules and explored his NBA Draftstock.

Jackson got some apparently harsh feedback. Via Inside Carolina (and referenced in this article), one interview with the Warriors apparently consisted of 30 minutes of mostly one-sided critique of Jackson’s game. In the overall process, the biggest points that were hit (again per the article linked above): his aggressiveness, ability to draw contact in the lane, and 3-point shooting. In the end, Jackson decided to withdraw from the draft and come back for one more year at UNC, in order to work on the finer points of his game — both in preparation for another run as a title contender, and for his eventual professional career.

It’s paid off.

On Saturday night, Jackson scored 22 points on 9 of 17 shooting, as North Carolina handed No. 9 Florida State its first defeat in 13 games. He added 19 points and 10 rebounds to put away Syracuse on Monday night.

Jackson currently averaging 18 points a game (5.8 more than last year), and has hit double-digits in every game but two. He’s taking 8.1 3 point attempts per 40 minutes, double his rate from last year, and hitting 39.51 percent of them – just under 10 percentage points better than his career average to this point. Jackson has emerged as UNC’s go-to guy on the offensive end, averaging 21+ points per game and 3+ made threes in his last 8 games. Per KenPom’s individual offensive rating, he’s currently among the 85 most efficient scorers in the entire country, even while bumping his usage/percentage of shots taken to higher levels – he’s taken 27.6 percent of the available shots while on the floor this year, 4.7 percentage points higher than his previous career high. That number has risen even more, to 30.5 percent, in UNC’s six ACC games. He currently qualifies as one of the most efficient high-volume shot takers in the country.

So what’s changed? In short — (mostly) everything. The development of his outside shot as an efficient and high volume threat has remodeled his offensive game. Check out his shot chart from this year for a visual.

North Carolina is missing the games against Tulane and Long Beach State from this year’s data set.

In the logged games, Jackson has hit 45 of his 115 triples – good for 39.13 percent. Those numbers are significant in two ways — first, and most obvious, is the efficiency. Remember, he had been at 29.7 percent for his career prior to this season — he has, so far, managed one of the biggest jumps in shooter efficacy for a Tar Heel all-time.

But the volume really matters too. If Jackson played 40 games (to match last year) at his current pace, he would take 36 more 3’s this year than he had in his entire career to date. He’s got a great shot at matching it even without a championship run.

And while Jackson is on a career pace for field goal attempts as well, it doesn’t explain all of the increase in volume from deep. He’s simply excised a huge chunk of his mid-range game this year, and traded them in for 3’s. Per our chart visual, he’s only taken 26 percent of his shots from the non-RA paint and mid-range zones this year, while bumping up his 3PA% to 45 percent. As noted above, last year he took about 33 percent of his shots from the mid-range, and 29 percent from three. This flip-flop, combined with his newfound efficiency from deep, has helped make him into a very different offensive player.

The threat of his shot has also opened up lanes to the rim for Jackson, especially in the half-court. While his percentage of shots taken at the rim has bumped up this year (to 28.7 percent, from 27.6 percent last year), the biggest difference is his unassisted makes at the rim. Last year, over 70 percent of his makes at the rim were assisted – he only hit 24 unassisted baskets at the rim all year, in a 40 game season (all numbers per hoop-math.com). This year, only 56 percent of his makes at the rim have been assisted — and he’s already hit 22 of these unassisted rim buckets. He’s been able to leverage the real threat of his 3-point shooting into opportunities to drive past closeouts to the basket.

This newfound aggression has also shown up in Jackson’s free throw numbers. He’s raised his fouls drawn per 40 by nearly a full foul, per KenPom, and is taking an additional FTA per game compared to last year. And he’s finally starting to rebound at a level somewhat commensurate with his size — he’s blown past the 10 percent defensive rebounding plateau (which he’s never cleared in season), and currently sits at 13.3 percent. It’s hardly earth-shattering, but it’s a solid indicator of the physicality improvements he’s made in his game so far this year.

Finally, his shooting has been key to providing spacing in the North Carolina offense. Here’s the hooplens.com data for Jackson so far this year.

Not only has the offense been 15 points per 100 possessions better with Jackson on the floor this year – their 2-point field goal percentage takes a big jump. Digging deeper into my data, the increase is related to the increased number of ‘at-the-rim’ attempts North Carolina sees while he’s on the floor, as well as the increased efficiency of the same. The threat and gravity of his shooting helps open up space near the basket, and paths to it – key for an offense that traditionally loves to play inside, with the 3-pointer as a fall-back option.

While it remains to be seen whether Jackson’s improvement from deep will help his NBA stock — he’s still got half a season to play in college before even potentially declaring for the draft, after all — it’s already made a huge difference for both his game and the offensive potential of the Heels. He’ll be key to the team’s chances to win a sixth national title.