DraftKings NBA Picks for January 18
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for January 18
Some nights bargains are so hard to find on DraftKings. Tonight is not one of those nights. There are plenty of stars, and a couple of resting stars. Let’s go find the value so we can pay for a stud or two!
Don’t forget to follow @fantasycpr on Twitter for lineup updates as we get them leading to the tipoffs of the games! I am not always able to get back in here and fix my picks when someone sits for the night, but we will update it on Twitter.
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Most of my picks end up being a little on the conservative side, so these lineups may be better suited for cash games, though I usually play both types.
Both lineups made it into the money last night. Maybe the secret is to stop changing them!
If you want a second opinion, head on over to Fantasypros. They will use their algorithm to help you find the best bang for the buck. They can also be customized to do the turbo and late tournaments, and they will also build around your favorite stack!
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Stephen Curry ($9,000): Russell Westbrook didn’t even hit 4x value in the first meeting with the Warriors. Patrick Beverley is a solid defender, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is still getting back into the swing of things. If I spend at point, it will be on Curry. Curry has averaged 50.6 DraftKings points per game in January. He didn’t quite hit 5x value in the first meeting with Oklahoma City, but he was a lot closer than Westbrook was!
John Wall ($8,600): Memphis is the best team in the league at defending the point, so most daily players are going to shy away from Wall. However, Wall scored 48.75 DraftKings points on the Grizzlies in the first meeting. He is an interesting pivot option because of his prospective low ownership rate.
Honorable Mention:
Kemba Walker ($7,700): Walker has missed 5x value in three of the last four games. Those were against San Antonio, Philadelphia, and Boston, all of whom have defended the point well recently. Portland doesn’t have that problem. They are third worst in the league for a reason. Walker could be in line for a good game tonight, and could see a low ownership rate because of his recent struggles.
Mike Conley ($7,500): Conley has topped 5x value in eight of his last ten games. He picked up 44.75 DraftKings points against the Wizards in the first meeting. Conley flies under the radar on nights like this because of all of the available talent, but he could come close to the scoring of the top tier tonight.
Dark Horses:
Elfrid Payton ($6,200): We have seen flashes of brilliance from Payton before, but it seems to vanish as quickly as it came. Over the last three games, Payton has put up 138.25 DraftKings points in his three games since being re-inserted into the starting five. There is no reason for the Magic to remove him from it, so expect another nice game against a below average Pelicans defense on the outside.
Sergio Rodriguez ($4,600): T.J. McConnell hopes to play tonight, but even if he does, it seems that Rodriguez is ready to take the starting role back again. In McConnell’s absence on Monday, Rodriguez put up 28.75 DraftKings points in 32 minutes on a solid Bucks team. He could do some real damage against Toronto.
My pick: Payton(PG), Rodriguez(G); Conley(PG)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($11,700): Harden is the new Westbrook. Beard has five triple doubles since the calendar hit 2017, including a monster night last night against Miami. Milwaukee is a solid defensive team on the outside as well, but do you dare fade Harden right now? He has averaged 67 DraftKings points per game over his last dozen contests.
C.J. McCollum ($7,300): McCollum will be a contrarian play tonight because of his absolutely miserable game against Washington on Monday. However, he played just 23 minutes, which is a full quarter shy of what he usually plays. If you project his points totals to include those extra minutes, McCollum is right back at his normal 5x value or better. I like his chances to bounce back against Charlotte, especially considering he wont be highly owned.
Honorable Mention:
Tyreke Evans ($5,900): Evans still has played over 25 minutes only once, so the Pelicans are clearly bringing him along slowly. Still, with his price in this range, it only takes 30 DraftKings points for him to make value. He is capable of that even if he plays only 25 minutes.
Malcolm Brogdon ($5,600): As long as Brogdon keeps producing, he should keep starting. He has hit 5x value or higher in seven of the last nine games. He has lost about five minutes per game with the return of Matthew Dellavedova, but so long as Brogdon keeps outplaying him, he will be out there.
Dark Horses:
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,000): Most people will take a look at the Detroit matchup and immediately avoid Hardaway. Maybe you shouldn’t. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is likely out again, which means that gaudy Detroit defensive total on shooting guards is a bit misguided. Most of that was put up with KCP in there. Hardaway has hit 5x value or more in five of the last seven games. He should once again.
Jodie Meeks ($4,500): Meeks has enjoyed a nice run with Evan Fournier still nursing a bum heel. Meeks has averaged 28 DraftKings points per game in the last three games that he has played more than 20 minutes. The minutes will be there. His recent success suggests that the production will be as well.
My pick: Brogdon(SG); Harden(SG), Meeks(G)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
Kevin Durant ($9,900): KD put up 53.75 DraftKings points in his first meeting against his former team this season. He will likely to that or more against them once again. There is still some bad blood in places here, most of which doesn’t include Durant. Durant only has one game under 45 DraftKings points in his last ten. Look for another productive night from Durant.
Paul George ($7,700): George has hovered around 5x value for most of the last month. While that means he has a good floor, he has also not produced any monster games, which leaves him with little upside. George is a solid play, but don’t expect a monster outing.
Honorable Mention:
Markieff Morris ($6,100): Morris has been on quite a roll over his last five games. He has averaged 37.4 DraftKings points per game over that span. Memphis is a solid defensive team, and they did hold Morris to 25.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting, but Morris is worthy of consideration during his current hot streak.
Jae Crowder ($5,600): Crowder has three straight games of over 30 DraftKings points after a rough stretch to start the new year. He has a nice matchup against the Knicks tonight. He picked up 26.5 DraftKings points on them the first time around, but with the way Crowder’s shot has been falling lately, I would expect more.
Robert Covington ($5,500): Covington has dominated Toronto this year. In two games, his picked up 80.25 DraftKings points. That is domination at this price level. Covington had a poor game against Washington, but aside from that has hit 5x value in the rest of his last eight games.
Dark Horses:
Mindaugas Kuzminskas ($4,300): The Knicks have a monopoly on hard to pronounce forwards right now. Kuzminskas has put up 70.25 DraftKings points in the last three games with Kristaps Porzingis nursing an Achilles injury and Lance Thomas also injured. Keep an eye on Porzingis’s status heading into tonight, but even if he plays, Kuzminskas has proven that he should at least get meaningful bench minutes going forward.
Jerami Grant ($3,700): Grant racked up 27 DraftKings points with Steven Adams out on Monday. Adams is out once again, and this is a much better matchup for Grant, at least on paper. At any rate, expect Grant to start again, and destroy 5x value.
My Pick: Durant(SF), Grant(F); Grant(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Draymond Green ($7,900): Green is always a threat for a triple double due to his all around production. Right now, I don’t trust the hip of Anthony Davis, so Green is the next best option. He picked up 37 DraftKings points on the Thunder in the first meeting, but he would have hit 5x value if he could have picked up one more point to get the double-double bonus.
Paul Millsap ($7,800): This is another player that some DFS people will shy away from because of the matchup. Millsap managed 44 DraftKings points on the Pistons in the first meeting, so he is capable of holding his own against this front. If you want to roll with a lesser owned power forward, Millsap fits the bill.
Honorable Mention:
Enes Kanter ($7,000): Kanter’s price skyrocketed since he will start again for the concussed Steven Adams. Kanter was unimpressive in his start against the Clippers, posting only 22.25 DraftKings points in just 23 minutes. DFS players will be all over Kanter with Adams out, but I don’t trust it. He needs 35 DraftKings points for 5x value in what is a poor matchup for him. The Thunder went small in the first meeting with the Warriors, causing Kanter to play just three minutes. He could end up seeing fewer minutes tonight as well.
Terrence Jones ($6,700): More will become available on Davis’s hip throughout the day, but I still don’t trust it. He was allegedly fine before Monday’s game as well. This seems to be lingering for Davis, which means good things for Terrence Jones. Jones picked up 33.5 DraftKings points on the Pacers on Monday. He also racked up 42.75 DraftKings points on the Magic in the first meeting. If Davis is out, Jones is a must-play. Even if he isn’t, Jones is a solid play once again.
Dark Horses:
Zach Randolph ($6,000): Randolph continues to outperform JaMychal Green, but don’t expect him to start anytime soon. Randolph is entrenched in the bench role, and his 38.3 DraftKings points average over the last five games suggest that is where he should be. This is a decent matchup against Washington, so expect Randolph’s normal output.
Domantas Sabonis ($3,300): Sabonis played 27 minutes to Kanter’s three in the first matchup with Golden State, racking up 28.5 DraftKings points. That was arguably Sabonis’s best game of the season, but this matchup is perfect for his style of play and the Thunder know it. Expect Sabonis to get a lot of run tonight with Adams out.
My pick: Randolph(PF), Sabonis(UTIL); Sabonis(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,600): Cousins has only been under 50 DraftKings points twice in his last dozen games. That to me is a high floor. He has also topped 60 DraftKings points twice in that span. He wont be a huge value at this price, but Cousins is pretty much a sure thing to get you value.
Joel Embiid ($8,400): The Sixers reiterated that Embiid likely wont play more than 28 minutes in a game for the rest of the season. Does that matter to us? Not really. Embiid has 142.5 DraftKings points in just 83 minutes over the last three games. Just wait until the Sixers turn him loose. I’m calling it now: if healthy, Embiid is a first round pick next year in fantasy.
Honorable Mention:
Andre Drummond ($7,600): Drummond has 76.25 DraftKings points in two games this season against Toronto. That puts him right around 5x value. If you don’t feel like paying up, or can’t afford a top tier center, Drummond is solid production in the middle range.
Marc Gasol ($7,200): Gasol abused Washington for 41.5 DraftKings points in just 29 minutes in the first meeting between these two teams. Gasol does so many things well that he always has a high floor. He can struggle against athletic teams, but Washington doesn’t really fit that bill. If Gasol plays his usual 35-38 minutes per game, he could have a huge game.
Myles Turner ($7,000): This is a nice matchup for Turner, but so was New York and Denver. The problem was that Turner got into foul trouble in those games. He rebounded nicely against New Orleans on Monday. Expect Turner to hit 5x value with the potential for a lot more. He has had some big games this year.
Dark Horses:
Cody Zeller ($5,200): The Hornets have turned Zeller loose when he is healthy. He has played at least 25 minutes in eight of his last ten games. He has 5x value or better in all of those games. He doesn’t have huge upside, but he is a nice consistent value.
Kelly Olynyk ($4,500): Olynyk is far from consistent. Any of us who have used him in any kind of league can attest to that. However, his recent production can’t be ignored. Much like Elfrid Payton, we have seen brief signs of these two breaking out in the past only to fizzle out. This is a great matchup for Olynyk, and he has scored 89.25 DraftKings points in his last two games. He could be a great value tonight, or he could ruin your lineup. He is capable of both.
My pick: Cousins(C); Drummond(C), Gasol(UTIL), Olynyk(F)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend!