My deli guy is a huge Knicks fan. The kind of guy who agreed with Derrick Rose — “they ARE a super team!” No trace of irony. Not a hint of a smile.
So, the other day, I’m waiting for my submarine sandwich and we start chatting about All-Star voting. He’s talking about Carmelo Anthony and I’m following along, nodding. He’s talking about Kristaps Porzingis and I’m still with him, mostly agreeing. Then he says, “I can’t believe D-Rose is averaging 20 points per game this season. He’s definitely an All-Star, right?”
Let’s leave aside the fact that Rose is definitely NOT averaging 20 points per game (17.5) and the fact that he’s definitely NOT an All-Star…the question got me thinking: is scoring 20 points a night sufficient to qualify a player as an All Star?
20 years of All-Star selections
From 1996 to 2016 — excluding 1999, when there was no All-Star Game due to a condensed schedule — 449 players averaged 20 points per game. The graphs below show the number of players who averaged 20 points per game for each season, by position (on the left) as well as the percent of those 20-point scorers who were named to the All-Star Game (on the right).
There are a few trends worth noting: firstly, in 2016, there were more point guards (7) averaging 20 points per game than any time in the past 20 years. On the flipside, there were fewer 20-point shooting guards (5) and power forwards (2) than at other times in the recent past. Big-time scoring centers are rare and have been for some time; for example, there weren’t any 20-point centers in 2013.
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A large fraction of the 20-point players were named All Stars, especially over the course of the past four seasons or so. Here’s a more detailed look at who averaged 20 points and who was an All Star, season-by-season, for the past 20 years.
In the plot above, the players are once again sorted by position using the same five colors as before. Each horizontal line is an individual player. Each vertical line is a season from 1996 to 2016 (excluding 1999). Each square is a 20 point-per-game season and each circle is an All-Star selection.
There were 58 individual 20-point seasons posted by point guards, 39 (67%) of these earned an All-Star nod; 59 lower-scoring seasons also earned a point guard some All-Star recognition. There were many more 20-point seasons turned in by shooting guards (133), but the same percentage of these seasons (67%) were deemed All-Star worthy; only 29 lower-scoring seasons got a shooting guard to the All-Star Game. There were 203 individual 20-point seasons scored at the two forward positions, 127 (63%) of them garnered an All-Star bid. There were far fewer 20-point seasons put up by centers (55), but the vast majority of them (82%) ended up as All-Star seasons; there were also 71 lower-scoring seasons that made a center into an All-Star.
Who was snubbed?
Altogether, there were 149 individual 20-point seasons that did NOT earn an All-Star selection. For the most part, these seasons were overlooked for three reasons: the player was on a stinky team (defined as a team winning percentage below 0.350), the player was not healthy (he missed more than 25 percent of the season), or the player was too young to have acquired worthy credentials (under 24 years old). Below you can see why each of the 149 20-point seasons was disqualified from All-Star contention. If none of these three explanations apply, the season is labeled as a “SNUB!”. Once again, the seasons are sorted by the same five colors indicating player positions (PG=orange, SG=pink, SF=green, PF=blue, C=purple).
You might notice that several of the serially-snubbed players stand out for their lack of defensive prowess: Stephon Marbury, Michael Redd, and Allan Houston, in particular, were not great defenders (each with career DBPM below -1.5). Some other players who missed out on multiple All-Star Games — Chris Webber, Elton Brand, Stephen Jackson — can blame a Hall-of-Fame-forward log-jam in the form of Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, and Dirk Nowitzki. So, yeah, obviously there is more to picking All Stars than just scoring averages, and, yeah, the selection can be nuanced in reality; but, let’s see how far down we can distill this process.
The Quiz
In short, if you’re wondering, “Am I an All-Star?” Just take the following quick quiz to find out:
You can’t really pick All Stars like this. You need experts! You need advanced stats! You need to poll the coaches! But, if we’re willing to play along with these rules, who would be the 2017 All Stars?
A weighted average of player rankings from fan (50 percent), player (25 percent), and media (25 percent) voting will be used to pick this year’s starters in each conference, two from the backcourt and three from the frontcourt. Subsequently, the coaches will pick two more guards, three more bigs, and two wildcards as reserves. If the default is one wildcard guard and one wildcard big man, we’re essentially looking for five representatives from the backcourt and seven from the frontcourt.
Let’s start by examining the Western Conference 20-point scorers so far:
There are nine guards averaging 20 points per game in the West. Of those, six guards passed The Quiz, whereas Bledsoe, Booker, and LaVine were docked for their stinky team records and youth. Of the six qualified guards, McCollum is the only one who you won’t find in the Top-6 of the early returns from the fan voting (West, backcourt). He’s also the only one that hasn’t been an All Star before, so he’s the odd man out.
Western Conference backcourt: Westbrook, Harden, Lillard, Curry, Thompson
There are also nine frontcourt players averaging 20 points per game in the Western Conference. Of those, only four big men passed The Quiz. Forget the rules for a sec, though. I’m obviously not leaving Draymond Green off my pretend ballot. C’mon, that’s just dumb. So, that leaves two more spots for big men. It’s clear that, as a three-time All Star, Davis has already overcome his lack of seniority, so he’s in again this year. Likewise, Towns may be transcendent enough to earn an All-Star bid, despite his youth and his team’s struggles.
Western Conference frontcourt: Durant, Leonard, Hayward, Davis, Cousins, Towns, Green
With the exception of Hayward, those seven bigs (plus Zaza Pachulia) comprise the Top-7 in fan voting (West, frontcourt). In real life, Hayward or Towns might end up ceding a spot to one of their senior colleagues, Marc Gasol or LaMarcus Aldridge.
Now, onto the Eastern Conference 20-point scorers:
In the East, seven guards are averaging 20 points per game (Jimmy Butler is being treated as a forward for voting). Of these seven, six passed The Quiz. Each of them should probably be an All Star.
Eastern Conference backcourt: Thomas, Irving, Walker, Wall, Lowry, DeRozan
These six picks are each in the Top-9 for fan voting (East, backcourt). The others on the fans’ list are Dwyane Wade (second), Rose (sixth), and Jeremy Lin (eighth). I don’t see Rose or Lin as All-Stars, but Wade might throw a wrench in the works if he can get some support from the players and coaches as well.
The Eastern Conference has eight frontcourt players averaging 20 points. Of those eight, five passed The Quiz. As I did for Towns in the West, I’m giving Antetokounmpo a free pass for being too young because of his overwhelming success this season.
Eastern Conference frontcourt: James, Butler, Antetokounmpo, Anthony, George, Love
Those six are each in the Top-8 for fan voting (East, frontcourt). The two others garnering the most fan support are Joel Embiid (fourth) and Porzingis (seventh). Both of these guys are on the cusp of being 20-point scorers and they would be deserving All-Stars. However, I wouldn’t bank on the players and coaches picking these budding superstars over established 20-point vets like Anthony and Love. More likely, I could see Paul Millsap earning his fourth straight All-Star appearance as a sub-20-point player and the Atlanta Hawks lone representative in one of these two spots.
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Keep an eye out for the NBA’s announcement of the All-Star Game starters later today, I know my deli guy will be paying attention. Will there be snubs? Probably. Will there be subs? Definitely.