NFL DFS: Championship Sunday Breakdown
By Bruce Lamb
Today is a sad day for NFL DFS, it’s the last day to play this season. I hope you all had a successful year whether you played season long, daily, or both. As the weeks move on I plan on staying on the news in the NFL in regards to free agency and coaching changes, as those will have a serious impact on next years Fantasy Football season. When coaches and players change teams, scheme’s change too, which could have a positive or negative impact on fantasy for that player or team. For today, I will continue with the same format I’ve used in the playoffs and breakdown each game.
I’m looking forward to both games today. We get 4 teams playing at their best playing for a chance to make it to Super Bowl LI in Houston in two weeks. For DFS purposes, on such a short slate, you have to find a way to be unique with your lineup construction. In order to do that you must take a few chances and hope it works out. All the players will be highly owned because it’s only a 2 game slate, the winning lineups today are likely going to be unique ones that also have the possibility of not using the entire salary cap. Let’s take a look at the NFC game first.
Green Bay at Atlanta -6 Total 61.5
The first thing that sticks out to me today is the total on this game. This is one of the highest totals I have ever seen for an NFL game. Obviously that makes the players in this game major targets for your lineup. These two teams met in week 8, in Atlanta. The Falcons won that game 33-32, which was also the beginning of a 4 game losing streak for the Packers.
When it comes to this game both Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan make great options at QB. I think one of these two should be in your lineup today. Rodgers had 4 TD’s the first time these two met, and he has played the QB position at an extremely high level lately. Matt Ryan had 3 TD’s in the previous matchup, and he too is playing at a high level. The thing that separates these two for me today is the running games, Atlanta has one and Green Bay doesn’t. That makes me lean towards using Rodgers a little more than Ryan, but I will have lineups with both guys.
The thing that will win or lose your contest today will be who you pair these QB’s up with. The Packers are in bad shape at both the running back and wider receiver positions. To be honest, the Packers haven’t had a running game all season, they have won games through the air. Jordy Nelson is expected to play today just 2 weeks after breaking multiple ribs against the New York Giants. I’m not sure how effective he will be today which makes him someone who many will be reluctant to put in their lineups.
Both Geronimo Allison and Davante Adams are also nursing injuries, Allison a hamstring and Adams an ankle. The healthiest pass catchers the Packers have are Randall Cobb and Jared Cook. Both guys could be heavily involved in the offense today. Jeff Janis is also someone who could be productive for DFS purposes. Ty Montgomery should also be considered today. Depending on how the game goes, he could be used more as a receiver today.
On the Atlanta side of things you can make an argument to use almost every skill position player. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are both in a good spot today. Coleman is the cheaper of the two and has a ton of upside today. I would consider using both in your lineups as both guys stay involved in this offense no matter how the game flows.
Julio Jones was shut down the last time these two-faced off. He is the most expensive WR today and is the obvious player the Packers are going to try to shut down today. If you spend up at running back, you likely won’t be able to afford him. Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, and Justin Hardy are also options that could find their way into a winning lineup today. All 3 options have outstanding matchups today and could be that salary saving play that wins a GPP. I would not consider using either defense today, but both are dirt cheap if you need to punt that position. Let’s move to the AFC Championship Game.
Pittsburgh at New England -6 Total 50.5
Another high total for a conference championship game features two more elite quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady have been dominant figures in the AFC for many years. Both have multiple rings and both would likely be favored against whoever they face in the Super Bowl. For fantasy purposes I think you need some exposure to both teams today in some form.
The New England Patriots do an outstanding job of taking away the opposing teams best offensive weapon. Well today that becomes difficult because the Steelers have multiple weapons to take away. Le’Veon Bell has run all over the AFC lately, and his running style is so fun to watch. He can have a great day without getting into the end zone, and can also be a factor catching passes out of the backfield should the running game be stopped.
Antonio Brown is the other offensive weapon the Patriots have to worry about. He is so good at finding windows for Ben to throw to and is always a threat to take it to the house. Should Bell somehow be shut down, Brown should have some openings to have a big day. Eli Rodgers is also a popular salary saver today that could do some damage.
On the New England side of the ball there are some good options in Brady, Blount, Lewis, and Edelman. Lewis is someone I’m really looking at because of how he can give on special teams like we saw the last week. He priced higher than Blount now, but he has also been a bigger part of the offense of late.
It’s always tough to know what the Patriots will do and who will be involved on a week to week basis. If you are making multiple lineups I would get some exposure to this offense in multiple ways. Malcom Mitchell and Martellus Bennett could also be a factor today and should be options to consider.
Next: FanDuel NFL Playoff Picks
I’m looking forward to a great day of football today. Good luck to everyone and don’t be afraid to have some salary left over today, being unique and taking a shot on someone today is likely going to lead to a winning lineup.