Nylon Calculus: Brook Lopez is finding his inner unicorn
By Ian Levy
The Brooklyn Nets are, predictably, struggling to win basketball games this year. They’re in the process of a rebuild and one that began without much in the way of notable assets, which means the roster has a lot of holes. However, one of the brightest spots in this transitional campaign has been the play of center Brook Lopez.
Lopez has gotten a lot of attention for adding a 3-point shot to his repertoire this season — making 34.5 percent of his 203 attempts, after attempting just 31 in his previous eight seasons combined. Other than his injury-shortened 17-game campaign in 2013-14, Lopez’s true shooting percentage is a career-high. This is a function of his 3-point shooting but also the dramatic reduction in the number of mid-range jumpers he’s taking. His usage rate is at a career-high, other than in 2011-12 where he only played five games because of injury, and his assist percentage is higher than it’s ever been.
Before this season Lopez was fairly versatile scoring big, capable of doing damage in the post, and spotting-up or rolling hard in the pick-and-roll. The addition of his 3-point shot has just served to expand his versatility.
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The table below shows the 16 players this season who are averaging at least two possessions per game on post-ups, spot-ups, and as the screener in the pick-and-roll. Lopez’s numbers for last year are included as well. The last column shows the weighted points per possession average for each player across all three play-types.
Lopez’s transformation is dramatic. He’s using nearly twice as many possessions per game on spot-ups (despite playing about four fewer minutes per game) and his efficiency has increased by more than 25 percent. The trade-off there is that Lopez is using far fewer possessions as the screener in the pick-and-roll, however his efficiency in this category has surged. This is likely because the possessions he has given up in those sets are mostly pick-and-pop 2-pointers, leaving just his highly efficient rolls to the basket.
Among this group, Lopez has the second-highest weighted average of points per possessions in these play types this season. In terms of his own improvement, he’s using about an extra half a possession per game in these three play types, but adjusting the mix and increasing his efficiency means he’s producing nearly two more points per game.
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It remains to be seen where Lopez fits into Brooklyn’s long-term plans and his defense still leaves a lot to be desired. But as the trade deadline inches closer, Lopez could be an intriguing target with his versatile and efficient offensive game.