FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – January 25
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 79 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.8 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Wednesday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with ten games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Russell Westbrook ($12,500) It has been a while since I have gone out of my way to roster Russell Westbrook but with so much value already on tonight’s slate, I think you can easily pay up for one if not two studs on FanDuel tonight.
Westbrook takes on a Pelicans team tonight that is ranked 23rd in DvP to opposing PG’s and is a team he has frankly throttled twice already this season. In two games so far this season against New Orleans, Westbrook is averaging 35 points, 13.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists while putting up 58 and 62 FanDuel points in those two contests.
If you are going to pay up tonight, Westbrook makes a lot of sense to lock in as the top stud to build your lineup around on FanDuel.
Jrue Holiday ($6,800) Another player that has been off my DFS radar for some time now due to the re-emergence of Tyreke Evans, is Jrue Holiday who exploded for 62.2 FanDuel points in his last game out against Cleveland.
The reason I am looking to target him tonight is two-fold – 1) We all know that we can attack Westbrook with opposing PG’s and I love the idea in tournaments of stacking these two against each other in our lineups. 2) With Tyreke Evans questionable for tonight, Holiday should dominate the usage in the Pelicans back-court. With Evans off the floor this season, Holiday is a fantasy point per minute producer and in the event Anthony Davis is also out, Holiday (and our man Terrence Jones) would become must plays!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Dion Waiters ($6,000) Fresh off his game winning shot over the Golden State Warriors, Waiters comes into tonight with one of the best match-ups anyone could ask for – a date with the Brooklyn Nets!
Waiters has scored 33 points in back to back games and has eclipsed 40 FanDuel points in each of those contests which would exceed 6.7x value at this price point. The Nets are dead last in DvP to opposing SG’s and the Heat are expected to score a whopping TEN points more than their season average tonight. This feels like a free square tonight for our lineups and frankly the entire Heat roster is in play here!
Sean Kilpatrick ($4,200) Ugh. I do not…want….to….do….this. Kilpatrick has burned me every time I have rostered him this year, yet here I am, clicking the add button next to his name, throwing caution to the wind!
Kilpatrick looks like he is again in the good graces of coach Kenny Atkinson as he has now played 29 MPG over his last two contests and racked up 27 FanDuel points per game which would exceed 6.4x value at this price point.
With Jeremy Lin and Joe Harris already ruled out, we should expect Kilpatrick to continue to get run for the Nets here. Keep an eye on the starting lineup news as Kilpatrick started two games ago but was back on the bench in place of Randy Foye against the Spurs.
This is it Sean – I am letting you back into the circle of trust, what could possibly go wrong?
If you are looking for another punt pivot, look no further than Norman Powell ($3,500) of the Raptors who started at SG with DeMar DeRozan out of the lineup on Tuesday. Powell responded with 39 minutes and 29.8 FanDuel Points which would exceed 8.5x value at this price point.
The stat that really jumps out at me though is the number of field goal attempts that Powell took in that game – 16 to be exact. The only player who attempted more shots on Tuesday was Kyle Lowry so that usage is really spiking for Powell and he makes for a great value play on a night we want to pay up for the studs!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
LeBron James ($10,700) In preparing my DFS research, my goal is to always stick to the numbers and let the statistics due to the talking however this pick is purely base off gut instinct and I will be very transparent with you tonight.
The Cavs have been brutal recently, capped off by an embarrassing showing against an Anthony Davis-less Pelicans team. After the game, James openly criticized his team’s performance and called for ownership to improve the roster.
I am sorry, but doesn’t this just reek of an angry LeBron, everyone out of my way, I am going to destroy you all on my own kinda performance?
These two teams met earlier this month and LeBron was only able to muster 39.9 FanDuel points however keep in mind that was with Rudy Gay on the floor. Who is stopping LeBron tonight? Matt Barnes? Statistics be damned, this is my gut call play and I am going with the King tonight!
Robert Covington ($5,400) Ok back to statistics and logic to make this choice. With Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor off the floor, Covington sees a 4% usage bump and is coming off three straight 30+ FanDuel point performances.
The match-up with Milwaukee is one we can attack as well as they are ranked 29th in DvP to opposing SF’s on the season. Without The Process on the floor, Covington is a fantasy point per minute producer who should be a solid 5.5x value tonight with 6x upside in this match-up!
Two other value options that have caught my eye on this slate are Brandon Ingram ($4,400) & Evan Turner ($4,400). Ingram is a great boom/bust play as he has seen 33+ minutes in each of the last three games and has put up 33, 29 and 6 FanDuel points playing primarily PG for the Lakers. Turner is coming off a 40 minute, 26 point performance and gets one of the best match-ups on the board tonight against the Lakers.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Nerlens Noel ($4,100) After his monster performance on Tuesday night, Noel is going to be the chalk value play at PF but with Joel Embiid already ruled out and Okafor questionable to play, Noel could be asked to play major minute for Philly again tonight!
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On Tuesday night, Noel responded in a big time way with 19 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks and 2 steals for 45 FanDuel points. This is a spot where I am happy to eat the chalk to get a guy with demonstrated 10x value and will be going back to Noel assuming he starts again!
Within the same game, do not overlook Dario Saric ($4,600) who is coming off a 32.6 FanDuel and will likely be ignored as gamers flock to Nerlens Noel for $500 cheaper!
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,400) The Portland – Lakers game should be a sneaky spot to target tonight and although all the marquee names are certainly in play, Aminu may be one of the best point per dollar targets from this contest.
In two previous games this season against the Lakers, Aminu has put up 32 and 36 FanDuel points and should continue to dominate a Lakers team that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing PF’s on the season!
Clint Capela ($4,800) The Rockets have the highest team total on the board tonight in their match-up against the Celtics and although James Harden is clearly the top play, there are other superstars I would rather get exposure to.
Capela returned to the starting lineup for the Rockets last game out and is now averaging over 25 FanDuel points per game in his last three contests which would exceed 5.6x value at this price point. If you are looking for a bargain Center play with upside, I love the idea of targeting Capela in a spot where his price has not yet reflected the expected minutes bump he should get as the starting big man!
If you are looking to pay up at Center, Al Horford ($7,300) was able to drop 43 FanDuel points in the previous meeting with Houston and makes for a great mid-range target with elite upside!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter all day for the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!