Prospect Calibration: Dejounte Murray’s slashing and floater game

“The San Antonio Spurs did it again” is about as common of an adage as you’ll find in NBA circles. When a franchise is so consistently elite over an extended period of time, it deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to decision-making. The R.C. Buford, Gregg Popovich decision-making tree is probably the best we’ve ever seen in the sport. Despite this, when the Spurs selected Dejounte Murray No. 29 overall in the 2016 Draft, even though it was San Antonio, I was still highly skeptical of the pick based on college performance. As it perhaps predictably turns out, I was likely wrong.

Murray’s statistical profile at Washington was flat out bad. His shooting indicators were poor, as was his scoring efficiency. His decision-making metrics also did not impress. All of his Synergy play type stats were also average to below average. From the eye-test, Murray had decent court vision, but turned the ball over too much and had questionable feel. His shooting mechanics were inconsistent and he really struggled shooting off the bounce, a paramount component for NBA lead guards. You’d also expect better overall scoring efficiency from enhanced transition opportunities due to Washington being No. 2 in the nation with 81.2 possessions per game. Basically, most of the projection picture looked negative: a potential non-shooting lead guard who isn’t an outlier athlete and doesn’t have elite feel. That’s a scary archetype.

But there were definitely boxes Murray did check, and potentially translatable eye-test skills he displayed. At 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, Murray possessed the size to both pass over defenders and to guard two positions in non-liability fashion once he adds strength. He had good burst and was fast with the ball, armed with a tight handle and an assortment of dribble-moves by way of hesitations and crossovers to navigate his way into the lane with plus east-west change of direction agility. He also showcased a consistent floater, which we’ll see below has been his main translatable scoring skill. Overall, San Antonio likely saw a slashing profile potentially reminiscent of that of Tony Parker, and with Parker’s recent injury, Murray has gotten court time to showcase his skill.

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Murray has always had plus burst with the ball, but with enhanced NBA spacing his control as a slasher has become more evident. In the following clip, he executes the tight right-to-left crossover, gets low enough with the ball to explode by the pick, and then shows that aforementioned control slowing the ball down with some tight dribbles to get to his spot for the floater attempt.

Murray is just a smooth driver, and a diverse one at that. Here, instead of the choppy step dribbles, he exhibits long strides to attack Kyrie Irving’s body and shows some contortion ability at the rim, switching hands to finish with his left.

He loves going to his hop-step and floater combination, and he really shows controlled footwork consistently as in the following situation where he quickly changes direction blowing by Kenneth Faried in the ICE pick-and-roll set leading right into the hop-step floater attempt.

He has numerous dribble-drive tricks in the toolbox, showing the one-on-one spin move here back to his left over Jamal Murray, possessing the size to get this shot off coming back to his right hand with incredible touch.

I have no idea how the following shot went in, but you can see the evident side-to-side agility with the ball via the euro-step in transition.

Murray has shown advanced slashing acumen for a 20-year old, and has really played a controlled game for the most part while also showing surprising aggressiveness to attack.

His main weapon of choice has been his floater, where he has incredibly soft touch. As mentioned above, Murray’s statistical profile at Washington was mostly negative, but there was one area where he really thrived — what Synergy qualifies as “runners”. On such attempts, Murray had not only high volume with 75 attempts, but a legitimate .907 points per possession efficiency mark, good for the 77th percentile. In Murray’s recent stretch, both his reliance on and efficiency in converting floaters has really been his lifeblood offensively.

Murray’s size, footwork, and touch is on full display in the following clip, where he dislodges Irving on the hop-step floater conversion, showing great length extension and arc on the shot.

No one is respecting Murray’s outside shot yet, largely based on small sample and his lack of college production, thus, he gets left alone like this outside the arc where both LeBron James and Kyle Korver don’t even bother to check him. Murray has the speed and handle to eat up space in this situations however, and again shows the same footwork, body dislodge and touch to convert the floater.

The importance of Murray’s height and length can’t go understated in regards to how much the combination aids his slashing potential. Korver does a nice job in the following clip of staying in front of Murray’s attempted in-and-out dribble, and a smaller player probably doesn’t get that shot off effectively over the contest.

The same is true here, where Murray gets just enough separation via his size on the Emmanuel Mudiay closeout to get his shot off unfettered.

Floaters and runners typically aren’t efficient shots, but in some cases they add value simply via of a threat that the defense has to respect, which could get bigs to bite in a pick-and-roll drop-back settings, opening up hesitation drives. But with Murray, the college sample and film thus far suggest he might just be that damn good at them, possessing rare touch.

When you combine the size, length extension, speed, burst, handle, agility control and touch on floaters, you have a very workable slashing package. A floater is crucial for a player who isn’t an outlier explosive speed-to-power finisher and who doesn’t have insane craft with ambidexterity around the rim. Murray has shown the ability to get in the lane at decent volume despite not being a respected shooter and convert these shots at a respectable rate, rendering a nice baseline skill-set here.

To take the next level as a scorer, Murray will need to add a respectable pull-up jumper game. Defenders like James in the following clip go under on him every time in the pick-and-roll, and while Murray’s floater can combat some of this, especially if the screen is set lower in the paint as it is here with David Lee, not being a respected shooting threat just limits more efficient options in these settings.

Murray is 7-for-20 on pull-up jumpers this year, but it’s more so the lack of respect and gravity he commands due to his reputation that limits San Antonio’s offensive advantages at times, with DeAndre Liggins again going under here.

The good news for Murray is that he is under the tutelage of the best shot doctor on the planet in Chip Engelland, and you can already start to see Murray exhibiting positive tendencies.

Here, he shows good preparatory footwork, quickly catching on the hop with a quick, fluid and high release allowing him to shoot over the Will Barton closeout.

His high release and wrist action are two noticeably positive features in his mechanics, and he keeps his elbow in well here with his feet angled slightly to the side for alignment.

Murray’s shooting was one of the primary negatives in his profile entering the league, and he went to the best possible situation to better himself there.

Overall, Murray has legitimate slashing upside as a finisher, and has shown surprising control and aggressiveness channeling his skills early. He’s still a ways away as a jump shooter, especially off the dribble, and as a decision-maker, but in his situation obtaining respectable status in both areas seems possible. He also has the length, quickness, and versatile size to eventually be a defensive player, but he gets beat way too much at the point of attack now on dribble-drives.

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Still, for the No. 29 pick the Spurs seem to have hit on a rotation player at his floor, again showing Buford’s and Popovich’s ability to identify talent that fits in their system while possessing the infrastructure to remedy weaknesses. As a local standout playing 30 minutes away from where I live at Rainier Beach High School, I’m definitely pulling for Murray, and think he landed in the best possible place to succeed, which doesn’t happen all that often.