Fansided

Why Rudy Gobert should have made the 2017 NBA All-Star team

By Andre Snellings

Jan 16, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert (center) against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Jazz defeated the Suns 106-101. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 16, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert (center) against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Jazz defeated the Suns 106-101. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nov 23, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert (27) dunks the ball in the third quarter against Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic (15) at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Utah Jazz defeated the Denver Nuggets 108-83. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 23, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert (27) dunks the ball in the third quarter against Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic (15) at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Utah Jazz defeated the Denver Nuggets 108-83. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports /

An enormous impact

The other side of the coin from individual production is player impact, and Gobert is also the most impactful player on his team and one of the biggest influencers on his team’s outcome in the NBA. The seed of quantifying impact in the NBA are the plus-minus stats, attempting to correlate a player’s presence on the court with changes in the team’s scoring margin. This seed has spawned multiple approaches to estimating this impact, ranging from purely boxscore estimates built upon regressing box score stats onto historical plus-minus trends to raw plus-minus scores up to regressions of plus-minus data that may or may not take advantage of box score stats to stabilize the estimate.

What was the purpose of that quick stats lesson? That Gobert measures out at the top of the league in ALL of those different ways to estimate impact.

Gobert ranks 15th with a score of 5.1 in the Boxscore Plus-Minus (BPM estimate, 10th in the Western Conference and first on the Jazz-. BPM is a per possession stat, but Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is like a counting version of the stat, and Gobert ranks ninth in the Western Conference and 13th in the NBA with a VORP of 2.9. Outside of Chris Paul (the other biggest All Star snub), every other player with a higher VORP than Gobert is a 2017 All-Star. And in ESPN’s Real Plus Minus (RPM), Gobert measures out 16th in the NBA and 10th in the Western Conference. In the Defensive RPM calculation, Gobert’s +4.56 DRPM measures out as the biggest defensive impact in the NBA.

Next: The best teams in the Eastern Conference can't get stops

Rudy Gobert was clearly snubbed for an All-Star slot, because no matter how he is evaluated he comes out among the best players in the Western Conference. He’s the best defender and anchor on arguably the best defense in the NBA, his offensive and defensive output places him firmly among the most productive players in the league, and his incredible defensive impact makes him one of the biggest influencers on his team’s scoring margin in the league. All told, there may not by 12 players having a better season than Gobert in the entire NBA, but there certainly aren’t 12 in just the Western Conference.

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