Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 82 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 373.5 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Saturday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with seven games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Kemba Walker ($8,300) Looking over this slate, the Hornets-Kings game stands out to me as a sneaky stacking option as these teams defensive weaknesses correlate perfectly with the oppositions offensive strengths.
The Kings are ranked 24th in DvP to opposing PG’s this season and are coming off a game Friday night in which they gave up 40 FanDuel points to Jeff Teague. Kemba Walker comes into this game fresh off a 51 point outing against the Knicks and now returns home where he averages 3 more FD points per game this season.
Although there are other top priced PG’s in great spots, Isaiah Thomas and Eric Bledsoe specifically, you are getting a between $1.4k-$1.7k salary savings by dropping down to Kemba which allows you to target similar upside while not limiting your roster construction.
Jameer Nelson ($4,700) The Nuggets and Suns have the highest team total on the slate with a 232 combined team total and this was a spot we just looked to stack a few nights ago! I have no issue going back to the well here and will focus significantly more on the Nuggets side of the ball.
With Nikola Jokic out with an injury, this will open up massive usage across the board for Denver and their entire starting lineup is in play tonight especially considering their highest priced player is $6,400! The bargain prices here allow for multiple stacking opportunities and I will likely look tomix and match across my two Picks and Pivots lineups tonight!
Nelson put up a monster line when these two teams met last game as he played 42 minutes and racked up 35.3 FanDuel points which would exceed 7.5x value at this price point! Nelson sees a 2% usage bump with Jokic off the floor this season and should continue to get all the run he can handle with Emmanuel Mudiay off the floor as well!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Nicolas Batum ($7,500) Heading back to Charlotte, I love the idea of stacking the Hornets back court and taking advantage of the Kings biggest defensive weakness. Batum is priced fairly and comes into this game with at least 32 FanDuel points in four of his last six games.
The Kings are ranked 24th in DvP to opposing SG’s and Aaron Afflalo has one of the worst individual defensive ratings of any SG on the slate tonight. This is a spot where Batum should shine but if you are looking for a pivot you can easily move to Devin Booker ($6,800) to get exposure to the Suns-Nuggets stack. Booker faces a Nuggets team that is 28th in DvP to SG’s and Booker just dropped 30 FanDuel points on the Nuggets last game out!
Jamal Crawford ($4,900) With Chris Paul still hurt and Blake Griffin just returning to the court, we still have time to target the Clippers value plays and I love the spot for Jamal Crawford tonight in an up-tempo game against Golden State!
Crawford is coming off a 33 minute 30 FanDuel point performance against Philadelphia and faces a Warriors team he dropped 31.4 FanDuel points against earlier this season! The best place to attack Golden State has been at SG where they are ranked 21st in DvP and one interesting wrinkle here is the potential absence of Stephen Curry who is questionable with an injury. Not only would this injury make Shaun Livington an interesting punt play at PG, but it would likely force Klay Thompson into an even bigger offensive role which may take his focus even further off the defensive end and allow Jamal Crawford to shine!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Danilo Gallinari ($6,400) and Wilson Chandler ($5,700) As I mentioned earlier, the absence of Nikola Jokic opens up massive usage across the board for Denver and I plan on stacking their players in all formats tonight.
In the last game between these two teams, Gallo put up 25 points, 7 rebounds and 35.9 FanDuel points and should be able to dominate a Phoenix Suns team that is ranked 27th in DvP against opposing SF’s. Wilson Chandler played 31 minutes in that game and put up 27.3 FanDuel points after averaging nearly 50 FD points against the Suns in his last two match-ups.
Chandler actually leads the team in usage when Jokic and Mudiay are off the floor with 26.9% which is a 3% increase on his season average. In this scenario, Chandler is averaging over one fantasy point per minute and with the likelihood of seeing 30-35 minutes tonight, he makes for one of the best value plays on the board. I have no issue with mixing/matching these guys across different lineups or even stacking them together at SF tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Kenneth Faried ($5,700) Faried is an interesting GPP play tonight as the absence of Jokic and the up-tempo style of game that Phoenix plays would seemingly fit perfectly into his style. His production recently is sporadic as he has not exceeded 30 FanDuel points in his last five games so game log watchers may be apt to fade him, but this is a perfect spot for the Manimal to unleash a monster DFS game!
More from FanSided
- Bills: 3 2023 roster holes that could cost Josh Allen a Super Bowl
- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor shoots down rumors of troubling injury
- MLB Rumors: Favorite to trade for Justin Verlander emerges and it’s not the Astros
- NY Mets should disband franchise if nightmare Justin Verlander report becomes reality
- First-time PGA Tour victory couldn’t happen to a nicer guy such as Lee Hodges at 3M Open
If you are looking for a more cost-effective pivot, look at Darrell Arthur ($3,800) who comes into tonight’s game with 25+ FanDuel points in two of his last three games which would exceed 6.5x value at this price point! Arthur is averaging just under a fantasy point per minute with Jokic off the floor so if we expect him to see 25+minutes tonight for Denver he could be a great point per dollar value!
James Johnson ($5,900) With Hassan Whiteside out on Friday night and questionable for Saturday, we can fire up JJ again tonight for the Heat. In the last four games without Whiteside on the floor, Johnson has put up between 31 and 34 FanDuel points in each of those which makes him one of the safest PF plays on the board and allows you to build some stability to balance some of your riskier picks.
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900) The play itself is nothing surprising, but I expect most will go the value route tonight at Center which should leave Boogie to be underowned tonight. With Willie Reed ($4,300) and Jusuf Nurkic ($4,000) finding themselves with expanded roles, they should soak up the majority of the ownership tonight.
For example, last night in a large field GPP, Willie Reed was over 30% owned while Boogie was under 15%! Think about the edge you can get on the field if/when the value centers flop and you can jump over them with a massive Cousins performance.
Boogie seemed like he was on his way to that on Friday night with over 30 FanDuel points at the half but finished just shy of 50 which was disappointing. Tonight he faces a Hornets team that is 25th in DvP to opposing Centers and with Cody Zeller potentially out again, Boogie could….wait for it…..be matched up against Roy Hibbert. Boogie time baby!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking roster news and lineup updates!