Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 83 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 373.5 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Sunday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 6:00PM EST with six games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Jeff Teague ($7,900) The Rockets-Pacers are one of the best games to target on this Sunday slate as they have a combined 225 team total and with a 3 point spread, we can expect both team’s starters to play a full complement of minutes.
We do not usually want to target PG’s against Patrick Beverley, but Teague comes into this game with 39+ FanDuel points in three of his last four games and the Pacers are expected to see one of the biggest pace bumps while scoring 6 more points than their season average. I love the idea of stacking this game as both teams play an up-tempo style with little defensive resistance and Teague gives you high usage exposure to the Pacers offense.
Rajon Rondo ($3,800) I am not going to lie to you and tell you I (or anyone else) can figure out what the Bulls are doing right now, but all we can do is keep an eye on Fred Hoiberg‘s rotations to try to read the tea leaves. On Friday night, Hoiberg sent me and the rest of the DFS world into mass confusion with the late breaking news that Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler would come off the bench but we should expect both players back in the starting lineup tonight.
In that game, Rondo also came off the bench and proceeded to play 32 minutes and racked up 13 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists and 34.9 FanDuel points which would exceed 9x value at this price point. Jerian Grant only played 14 minutes and Michael Carter Williams got a DNP-CD so is it possible Rondo could be in for another game of major run? For less than $4k, Rondo is a great GPP dart throw with massive upside….and massive downside….but hey, its DFS so let’s get crazy!
UPDATE: Stephen Curry has been ruled OUT tonight and Shaun Livingston has been confirmed as the starter at only $4,200. Last season, Livingston averaged over 22 FanDuel points per game as a starter and his salary savings allow us to spend up at other spots!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
James Harden ($12,500) If there is one superstar that I think we should make room to pay up for on this slate, it is James Harden. The Rockets come into this game with the second highest team total on the slate, right behind the Warriors, but with only a 3 point spread I expect Harden will have the security of more playing time than the Warriors stars in a potential blowout against Portland.
Harden is coming off a massive 87 FanDuel point game and has 50+ FanDuel points in six of his last seven games. On this slate, there is enough early value (and possibly more to open as the day goes on) that Harden is easy to fit on FanDuel and allows you to build a solid roster construction around him!
Ian Clark ($3,500) Bet you didn’t think Ian Clark would be the Warriors/Portland exposure I am looking to highlight! Clark, a bench guard on Golden State, who has not hit double-digit FanDuel points in six of his last seven games may seem like an odd DFS target but hear me out!
In the two previous match-ups this season with Portland, Clark played 23 minutes per game and put up 33.4 and 30.9 FanDuel points in each of those contests which scoring 22+ real points in each game. Coach Steve Kerr clearly has identified something in this particular match-up that allows Clark to flourish as in both of those games the Warriors were at full-strength so the rotation should allow for Clark to flourish again here.
This is clearly a GPP only play, but it is something worth noting that could really differentiate your lineups!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Paul George ($8,300) Heading back to Indiana, PG-13 is finally flashing his elite upside after sputtering much of the early DFS season and has now put up 42+ FanDuel points in each of his last three games!
George has scored 30+ points in each of those games and with a fast paced match-up against Houston, I expect George to continue to drive the Indiana offense and he makes a great correlation play with James Harden as the Rockets are ranked 26th in DvP to opposing SF’s.
Robert Covington ($5,600) With Joel Embiid already ruled out for today’s game, this opens up a ton of usage for the rest of the Sixers and at mid-range price points, this is a great spot to target them on this slate!
With Embiid off the floor this season, Covington sees a 2% usage increase and averaged just shy of a fantasy point per minute (0.9). Covington has 30+ FanDuel points in three of his last five games and makes for a fantastic mid-range play with GPP upside today!
UPDATE: With Stephen Curry ruled out, I am going to make every effort to get Kevin Durant ($10,600) into my lineups tonight! With Curry and David West off the court this season, KD has a massive 35% usage rate and puts up 1.6 fantasy points per minute. This could be a massive night for KD and I will make sure to adjust my lineups to get exposure here!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Thaddeus Young($5,600) The best place to attack the Rockets is at the PF position as they are ranked 25th in DvP to opposing PF’s on the season and Thad makes for a great mid-range play to get exposure to this game.
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Young is more of a boom/bust option but the match-up and the guaranteed 30+ minutes of run makes him an ideal target and correlation play if you are building around James Harden tonight.
Ersan Ilyasova ($5,700) Anytime Joel Embiid is off the floor, we know we can look to Ghostface Ilya who leads the Sixers in usage at 25.6% with Embiid off the court. This season, Ersan has put up .95 fantasy points per minute with The Process off the floor and today he takes on a Chicago team that is 17th in DvP to opposing PF’s. The fact that Ilyasova is priced under $6k in this spot only further enhances his value and he should easily return value tonight at this price point!
UPDATE: Nerlens Noel ($4,700) has been confirmed as the starter tonight for the Bulls and with Joel Embiid OUT and Jahlil Okafor questionable, Noel is a plug and play value option at PF!
Myles Turner ($6,800) Center is somewhat of a dumpster fire on this slate but I am all in on the Indiana-Houston game and Turner is a great high upside play to help round out that stack! Turner has three straight games with 30+ FanDuel points and anytime we can target Turner at home we need to take note of his massive home-road splits.
Home-Road splits in the NBA are not something I often utilize but Turner’s jump off the page. On the road this season, Turner averages 27.5 FanDuel points per game but at home he sees that number spike 25% to 34.4 FanDuel points per game.
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR throughout the day for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!