What keys will Virginia have to hone in on to take down Villanova on Sunday?
The Virginia Cavaliers, one of the ACC’s best teams, travel to Pennsylvania Sunday to take on the reigning NCAA Champions in one of the biggest non-conference matchups of the college basketball season. Villanova is ranked No. 1 in the current AP Poll while Virginia is No. 14, though after a Wildcats loss and Cavaliers win this week, those numbers should be closer in the new iteration released Monday. They are much closer in Kenpom’s ratings, as Virginia is fourth and Nova is fifth. Their relative strengths and weaknesses match up well; Virginia is 3rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency while Villanova’s offense comes in at 4th. The opposite side is similarly matched, with Virginia’s offense being 17th to Villanova’s 20th-ranked defense.
In this battle of college basketball titans, the difference will be in which team executes their game plan better. Both teams will focus in on promoting their strengths and trying to exploit the other’s weaknesses. Here are three keys that could carry the Cavaliers to victory on Sunday afternoon.
3. Wear out Villanova
Villanova comes in ranked 331st of 351 teams in the nation in Kenpom’s Bench Minutes, or what percentage of a team’s minutes are played by players outside of the top five in the rotation or players at the end of the bench. Virginia ranks closer to the top at 52nd. While both of these teams play at a snail’s pace, limiting how much the players are up-and-down the court, the Wahoos will have to use their deeper bench to their advantage whenever they can. Whether that means banging more down low, running in transition more than usual, or doing more to draw extra fouls, the middle-of-the-rotation guys could make a big difference in this game. Finding a way to get the Wildcats’ stars to the bench, thereby forcing less experienced players into action, will be big for Virginia as they use bench players like Kyle Guy and Darius Thompson to take advantage of weaker links.
One way for Virginia to do that could be by using more opportunities to leak out in transition. Per Hoop-Math, the Cavs only take 11 percent of their shots in transition, but they put those shots in the bucket at a high clip. They have a 63.4 percent effective field goal percentage on those shots, including converting 75 percent of their attempts at the rim. Their crisp ball movement and penchant for avoiding turnovers means they often make the right pass, a habit that’s even deadlier when they’re in the open court. Because their slow pace is a hallmark of their team and part of what Tony Bennett’s pack line defense is founded on, they likely won’t run too much. Getting those easy buckets when the opportunity presents itself, though, could be a key for Virginia as they watch the increased pace bring Nova’s shortened rotation into play.
2. Keep London Perrantes hot
During Virginia’s current five-game win streak, guard London Perrentes has been on fire. He is one of the most underrated players in the country, and he has been the team’s driving force on offense of late. The senior leader has gone 15-27 from 3 during the streak and several of them have been daggers, putting away opponents for good late in the second half. While he isn’t a typical go-to guy in the mold of former Cavs Justin Anderson and Malcolm Brogdon, he has been the man spearheading the attack, scoring 20+ points in three of the five wins. The Los Angeles native isn’t likely to take over a game, but when the pressure is on, he shines brightest. Against an opponent with high-quality players like Villanova, it will be important that he continues to play at that level.
While he likely won’t be lined up directly across from National Player of the Year contender Josh Hart, the battle between them will be crucial. Hart is the star of the show for the Wildcats, averaging nearly seven points more than Perrantes’ 12.3 per game. If it’s a close game as time winds down, Hart has shown time and again that he will step up and answer the call. Perrantes will need to be able to match him blow for blow down the stretch, taking shots when he’s open and knocking them down. He doesn’t often look to create his own shot, but with the Hoos whipping the ball around, he gets his fair share of open looks and creases in the defense. While it probably won’t help him gain ground on Hart in the POY race, being assertive in the big moments like he has recently is a must for the Virginia point guard.
1. Stay disciplined in the pack line
A trademark of Tony Bennett’s tenure in Charlottesville has been stifling defense. Using the pack line concept of closing gaps and clogging the lane, Virginia has had one of the best defenses in the country in recent years. This year is no exception as they are allowing the least points per game of any team in the country by a margin of over 4 points. While the slow tempo has something to do with that, the adjusted metrics tell the same story. Though the pack line is geared towards staying inside the 3-point line and can be prone to giving up long jumpers, the Hoos have been excellent at closing out and contesting those shots. After getting torched from deep in ACC losses to Florida State and Pittsburgh, they have stifled opponents, who are shooting a lowly 28.7 percent of their 3-pointers during the Cavaliers’ win streak.
This will be an especially big key against Villanova. The Wildcats boast four players shooting over 38 percent from beyond the arc on more than three attempts per game. They use that spacing to open driving lanes for the likes of Hart, Jalen Brunson, and Mikal Bridges, all of whom shoot over 75 percent at the rim per Hoop-Math. Making good contests on their shooters and still being able to recover to stifle drives will be one of the biggest challenges Virginia has faced this year. Closing out wildly or helping too hard will give Nova open looks and easy chances at the rim. Virginia allows opponents to shoot over 50 percent at the rim and under 32 percent from everywhere else on the floor according to Hoop-Math. Because of that lack of rim protection, stopping drives before they start is a big part of the Wahoos defense.
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Virginia has the chance to get one of the best wins of the season on Sunday. Because of the nature of the Villanova team lining up across from them, they will need to be at the top of their game to come away victorious. Up against National Player of the Year frontrunner Josh Hart, the Cavaliers need to dig into their bench, rely on their steady senior, and play defense like they always do. It’s a seemingly easy-to-follow blueprint for success, but they have yet to face an opponent like the Wildcats this year.