Here are the keys to victory for the Villanova Wildcats when they play Virginia in Philadelphia on Sunday.
College basketball just keeps on giving this weekend, treating us to a matchup of two top five KenPom teams on the first non-football Sunday since August. Villanova plays host to the Virginia Cavaliers, in the Philadelphia round of a home-and-home series.
Villanova is looking to rebound from a tough loss at Marquette earlier in the week: the Wildcats held a 15-point lead in the second half, before letting it slip away and ultimately losing by two. While it remains at 19-2 for the season and on track for a No. 1 seed, Jay Wright’s program hasn’t lost consecutive games since the 2012-13 season. They’re certainly not looking to break the streak now.
Here are three keys to victory for the Wildcats, as they look to push for 20 wins and another quality victory for their tournament resume.
Take advantage of opportunities to run
The game on Sunday will likely be played at a glacial pace. Villanova plays at the country’s 329th-slowest adjusted tempo, while Virginia is just a 10th of a second off from slowest outright. Both teams play patiently on offense, and make it difficult on the other end for opponents to find quick, easy shots.
But Villanova has been extremely effective in transition so far this year, scoring 1.31 points on possessions lasting less than 10 seconds. While their offense remains excellent in the half-court, scoring 1.13 points per possession on all other opportunities, it’s a meaningful gap they can try to maximize.
Transition is also one of the few places Virginia’s top 3 defense is even somewhat vulnerable. This year’s iteration of the venerable “Pack Line” defense is holding opponents to 83 points per 100 possessions when the length of possession stretches past 15 seconds — a mark that would be tops in the country on defense. However, teams have managed 89 points/100 when taking earlier shots (<15 seconds) against the Cavaliers. It’s a small gap, but Villanova will need to grab the opportunities and margins it can against an excellent Virginia defense.
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Villanova has been short on top-end perimeter defenders all year, thanks to the knee inflammation problems that have been troubling Phil Booth since the third game. With a rotation that goes seven deep, and a starting point guard in Jalen Brunson that’s a bit short and slow to be a lockdown defender, ‘Nova has had some problems with quick, penetrating guard play, especially early in games.
Their best guard defenders are Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart, and Jay Wright clearly knows this. When the ‘Cats fell behind early to Notre Dame and Creighton, Wright shifted the pair onto the best perimeter weapons for each team for much of the rest of the game, and Villanova fought back to win both. But it’s not something he’ll automatically go to, especially with the offensive load Hart’s been asked to carry this year.
Wright can’t take such risks on Sunday — all the margins will count against a squad as strong as Virginia. London Perrantes has been excellent directing the point of attack in his senior year, and is currently hitting about 43 percent of his 3s. Marial Shayok and Devon Hall are also quite good at penetrating to the basket and finishing — both are taking over 30 percent of their shots at the rim this year, with under a third (for both) of their makes coming off assists. Villanova needs to cut off these paths to easy points early — Jay can’t wait until the team struggles before making the switch.
Sink some 3s early
While this would be the hope in any game following a 6-34 (17.6 percent) performance, hitting some 3s early against Virginia would help loosen up the court for the rest of the offense. Virginia’s Pack Line approach wants to wall off penetration from the strong side, and force perimeter shots.
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Per hoop-math.com, Virginia’s 51.5 field goal percentage allowed at the rim is 22nd best in the country to this point. A key part of this is that the ‘Hoos block 18.5 percent of all attempts at the rim. Villanova will need to pull some bodies out of the paint in order to have success driving against this team, and the best way they can do that is the same way they’ve been doing it for years — the threat of a 3-pointer. The psychological effect of hitting a few early 3s will force Virginia’s players to stick closer to the shooters Villanova dots the perimeter with, and open up some (slightly) easier paths to the bucket for guys like Hart and Brunson. Villanova can win without hitting early 3’s, but it would make their lives a lot easier if they do.