DraftKings EPL Fantasy Daily Picks – January 31 2017
By David Gate
There is a 14 team slate for DraftKings EPL DFS as the Premier League returns to action on Tuesday after the weekend’s FA cup games.
The aim of these articles is to provide DraftKings EPL DFS players with an edge through delving into stats and news to give your lineup the best possible chance of making money on DraftKings.
I will also be doing the same for FanDuel. While a lot of information will be applicable to both sites I will tailor lineups according each site’s scoring systems.
It is crucial to remember that, unlike US sports, the EPL has no official injury reports or designations. The information is usually out there but it is not as simple as looking for an official report. There is also a high amount of rotation within the squads meaning there are often surprises on the team sheets. Teams release their lineups 45 minutes to an hour before kick off – which will be around 1:45pm on Tuesday. It is paramount you check these team sheets before you finalize your lineup. The DFS sites won’t list designations as accurately as they do for NFL or NBA sports as a player could be on the bench. I will list changes to my DFS lineups on Twitter at @DavidGateSports and @FantasyCPR
The key to all DFS sports is value. Getting the most points out of every dollar spent. The EPL contests are still quite new to these sites but it seems that 3 points for every $1k of budget will be a high scoring lineup.
My picks are ranked out of three stars for each position to give you an idea of how confident I am in that pick.
* One Star = high floor players who will get adequate value
** Two Stars = players with a higher upside and good matchup
*** Three Stars = excellent pick with a strong matchup
DraftKings EPL Goalkeepers
Ben Foster (4800)*** – West Brom
While being middle of the pack for Clean Sheets (11th) Foster ranks 2nd for saves. This week he has a very favorable matchup with Middlesborough who have scored fewer goals at home than any other Premier League team. I can see these conservative teams playing out a boring 0-0 tie meaning I’m high on West Brom and Middlesborough keepers and defenders this week.
Petr Cech (6000)** – Arsenal
This is the safest bet for the GK position on Tuesday evening with Arsenal as one of only two top half teams playing at home. Watford rank 15th in goals scored this year and have only scored 4 goals in their last 7 games. While I’m keen to see how Watford’s loan signing Niang improves their fortunes in front of goal, he isn’t expected to start tomorrow. The floor here is high with good upside.
Fraser Forster (5200)* – Southampton
This a pick purely chasing the juicy 10 point clean sheet bonus! Almost all of Forster’s points this season have come from these bonuses. Luckily for him, Southampton pick them up regularly – 8 for the season (2nd). The matchup is favorable away to Swansea who have only won 2 games at home all season though they will buoyed by their surprise win at Anfield in Gameweek 22. I expect Southampton’s defense to get the shut out on Tuesday.
DraftKings EPL Defenders
Shkodran Mustafi (3700)***
Mustafi has lagged slightly behind his center back partner Laurent Koscielny (4100)** in DraftKings scoring. I’m favoring the German this week due to his better price point and the matchup with Watford. The Gunners should find themselves ahead in the first half meaning Watford chasing the game by trying to find Troy Deeney with long balls giving the Arsenal defenders plenty of opportunities to rack up the stat sheet.
Adam Smith (4600)** – Bournemouth
Bournemouth host struggling Crystal palace this week. Palace are a team desperate for points and they will see this as a game they can grab some. Adam Smith has been very involved in their attacking play this year ranking 2nd for assists for defenders. With Bournemouth being very aggressive at home I’m expecting Smith to be heavily involved again
Trent Alexander-Arnold (3600)** – Liverpool
With regular right back Clyne struggling with injury the young Alexander-Arnold made his first Premier League start against Manchester United two weeks ago (7 DraftKing pts). Clyne returned against Swansea but is expected to miss out tomorrow against Chelsea. The young replacement should be busy up against Eden Hazard. one to watch when the team sheets are released.
DraftKings EPL Midfielders
Dele Alli (8200)*** – Tottenham
Dele Alli is the hottest midfielder in the league with 8 goals in his last 6 games. This week Spurs travel to a woeful Sunderland side who sit bottom of the league. The Sunderland midfield is ravaged with injuries and they should struggle to cope with Pochettino’s overloaded midfield system. Last time out Sunderland conceded two goals to midfielders and at better value than Christian Eriksen (9600)** am I going all in on Alli.
George Honeyman (3300)** – Sunderland
Now I expect Sunderland to get roundly beaten but the value here is too much for me to ignore. Honeyman did well on his first start for the club and managed to create a chance and get 7 tackles gaining 10 DraftKings points which good value at under $3.5k. Even if he tanks this week, it is not a terrible tactic to ‘punt’ the position to load up elsewhere.
Steven Defour (5400)* – Burnley
Another solid value pick in midfield is Steven Defour. He started the season on fire but went through a huge slump at the end of 2016. This has seen his price plummet but his form has picked up in the last two games getting 10 DraftKings points in each contest. All but one of Defour’s big performances have come at home and I don’t expect him to be picked up on many rosters.
DraftKings EPL Forwards
Diego Costa (8600)** – Chelsea
Out of the higher priced forwards Harry Kane (9500)** has the best matchup but I’m avoiding him for now as he is questionable with a groin injury. From the rest I am plumping for Diego Costa.
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Liverpool have had a horrid start to 2017 picking up only one win (against Plymouth in an FA Cup replay). Though if Liverpool start with Matip then I’m slightly less excited about this pick and might pivot to Giroud (8200)** or Hazard (8700)* instead.
Theo Walcott (8600)*** – Arsenal
Walcott returned to the team by netting a hattrick on Saturday in the FA cup. He should return to the Premier League up this week against Watford. He has scored 6 of his 8 goals at home this season. Even though he didn’t score against Watford earlier in the year he bagged an assist. He represents much better value than Sanchez (11000)*.
Andre Gray (5600)** & Ashley Barnes (4900)** – Burnley
Burnley are one of the league’s best home teams (4th) and Leicester are one of the worst (19th). Everything is set up for a Burnley home win. If you are looking to find value at the FWD position on Tuesday I would look here. Andre Gray is the safer option but Barnes is not much of a downgrade if you want to save more of your budget to use elsewhere.
My DraftKings EPL Lineups
Lineup 1
GK: Cech – Arsenal
DEF: Mustafi – Arsenal
DEF: Smith – Bournemouth
MID: Alli – Tottenham
MID: Ericksen – Tottenham
FWD: Benteke – Crystal Palace
FWD: Giroud – Arsenal
UTIL: Honeyman – Sunderland
Lineup 2
GK: Foster – West Brom
DEF: Bellerin – Arsenal
DEF: MacAulay – West Brom
MID: Honeyman – Sunderland
MID: Sigurdsson – Swansea
FWD: Costa – Chelsea
FWD: Sanchez – Arsenal
UTIL: Gray – Burnley
Best of luck in your DraftKings EPL contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!