FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – January 30
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 83 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 373.5 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Monday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:30PM EST with five games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Kyrie Irving ($8,600) The big early injury news on Monday night’s slate is that Kevin Love will miss this game against Dallas for the Cavaliers which immediately makes Kyrie Irving and LeBron James elite plays in all formats.
This season, with both Kevin Love and J.R. Smith off the court, Kyrie sees a massive 6% usage increase and leads the team with a 36.9% usage rate and puts up 1.18 fantasy points per minute. Irving has put up 42+ FanDuel points in four of his last five games and should be able to obliterate a Dallas back court that is starting Yogi Ferrell at PG on Sunday in place of Deron Williams!
Reggie Jackson ($6,600) At the other point guard spot, I love the mid $6k range as we have multiple high upside GPP options (Elfrid Payton, Ricky Rubio) but my favorite play tonight is Reggie Jackson of the Detroit Pistons.
Jackson comes into this game with four straight games over 32 FanDuel points and gets to face off with Isaiah Thomas, one of the worst individual defenders in the NBA this season from a fantasy perspective. These two teams faced off twice earlier this season when Jackson was on the shelf, but his replacement Ish Smith averaged 37 FanDuel points in those two games and I would expect a similar outcome for Jackson tonight with even larger upside!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,400) The shooting guard position is an ideal spot to find value tonight and KCP is one of the best mid-range options on the board as he has put up 30 or more FanDuel points in three of his last four games.
In the last match-up between these two teams, KCP racked up a well-rounded stat line of 25 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists for 40 FanDuel points over 35 minutes of action. The one item to keep an eye on here is the status of Avery Bradley who has the potential to return for Boston which would hurt the value of KCP due to his defensive prowess but keep in mind that Bradley was active the last game when KCP dropped a 40 burger on the Celtics!
Sean Kilpatrick ($4,100) The Nets are going to be a solid source of value on this slate as we already know Jeremy Lin and Joe Harris are out and Rondae Hollis Jefferson is questionable to play which should open up ample opportunity for the remaining Nets wings – Kilpatrick, Bojan Bogdonavic and Caris LeVert.
Kilpatrick has been an incredibly frustrating DFS player to roster this year but on a short slate where we need value to fit in the Cavs stars, the Nets guards may be the key to unlocking that! Kilpatrick has 27+ FanDuel points in three of his last five games which would exceed 6.5x value at this price point which makes Kilpatrick an ideal GPP target!
I expect Seth Curry ($4,300) to be the chalk play at SG and for good reason, as he is coming off a monster 43.5 FD point outing on Sunday against the Spurs where he dropped 24 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists. Over his last three games, Curry has played 34+ minutes in each contest and has exceeded 6x value in two of his three starts. I have no issue with deploying him in any format tonight, just expect he will be incredibly high owned at this price point!
UPDATE: With Avery Bradley looking like he will miss tonight’s game, feel free to go back to Jaylen Brown ($3,900) tonight. Brown has started the last two games for Boston and has put up 25.1 and 31.6 FanDuel points for an average 7.3x value at this price point. I expect KCP will follow IT4 all over the floor tonight which makes me more interested in targeting the other Celtics guards!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
LeBron James ($10,500) As I mentioned earlier, with Kevin Love already ruled out for this game, LeBron becomes a lock and load play for me on this slate and I will likely have 100% exposure to the King on Monday night.
With Love and Smith off the floor this season, James has a 32.2% usage rate and puts up 1.32 fantasy points per minute which should put him in line to flirt with a 50 burger against the Mavericks. In the last two games that Love has missed, LeBron put up 56.3 and 48.1 FanDuel points which is exactly where I expect him to be tonight and although he may not hit our target 6x, this is a spot where I am happy to target the raw points on a short slate!
Caris LeVert ($4,400) With all the Nets injuries, I expect Kenny Atkinson to continue to lean more and more on the impressive rookie to help keep the Nets competitive. LeVert has significant upside and has exceeded 6x value in two of his last five games but it is the fact that his minutes continue to creep up that has me most interested.
In his last two games, LeVert has played 26 and 27 minutes and with Lin, Harris and RHJ out on Monday night, LeVert should be counted on for nearly 30 minutes of run and has the GPP upside at this price point for significant profit!
UPDATE: With Avery Bradley looking doubtful for tonight, I will also be looking to fire up Jae Crowder ($6,300) tonight as he is averaging over 38 FanDuel points over his last three games and has performed at 5.2x value in the six games that Bradley has missed!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Zach Randolph ($6,000) The Grizzlies see one of the biggest pace increases on the slate as they get to face the up tempo Phoenix Suns on Monday Night! Z-Bo comes into tonight’s game playing some of the best basketball of the season as he has put up 38 and 41 FanDuel points over his last two games which would exceed 6.3x value at this price point.
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Randolph has played 30+ minutes in each of his last three games and has put up an average of 13 FGA in each contest, including a whopping 20 shot attempts his last time out. JaMychal Green is also questionable for tonight’s game which would make Z-Bo an absolute must play in the event he gets the start!
James Johnson ($6,000) I have played James Johnson in each of his last two games with much success and am going back to the well here tonight against the worst defensive team in the NBA, the Brooklyn Nets. JJ has put up 31.3 and 41.1 FanDuel points in each of his last two games and has played 30+ minutes in each of those contests.
Andre Drummond ($8,000) Drummond comes into tonight’s game off a beast 51 FanDuel points his last time out against Sacramento, flashing the kind of upside we are looking for in GPP play. Drummond gets to take on a Celtics team he has performed well against this season, averaging 43.4 FanDuel points against Boston in two earlier match-ups.
The one injury to keep an eye on here is the status of Al Horford as if he sits again, Drummond would be able to absolutely dominate an Amir Johnson/Jonas Jerebko interior! In either case, the $8k price point is very reasonable and allows you another high upside piece to stack around the Cavs Big 2!
Best of luck today in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter throughout the day for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!