New England Patriots are simplistic, dominant in approach
Former NFL scout Matt Williamson looks at the New England Patriots, and sizes up why they will, or won’t, win Super Bowl LI against the Falcons.
Having possibly the best quarterback to ever play the game has its benefits and Tom Brady’s level of play has not dipped one bit, despite his age. His mastery at the line of scrimmage and ability to read and manipulate defenses allows the Patriots to attack any weaknesses he and the coaching staff diagnose. Additionally, they attack said weaknesses without relent. Brady excels at controlling tempo. When he finds defensive personnel to his liking, he doesn’t allow his opponent to substitute.
This offense is without Rob Gronkowski, a huge loss any way you look at it. Yet they still can attack through the air or by land with great efficiency. New England’s offensive line doesn’t feature a lot of big-name players, but the whole is greater than the sum of the parts with this much-improved unit from a year ago. Brady’s blitz recognition and his unbelievable ability to get the ball out of his hands ultra-quick, on time and accurately helps the pass protection. Regardless, this group holds up well against the run and pass.
As always, the Patriots have two distinctly different types of running backs in LeGarrette Blount and the combination of Dion Lewis and James White. These guys don’t play the same position even if that is how they are listed in the program. Blount is the huge hammer and Lewis and White present major problems in the passing game, especially when matched up against linebackers.
As always, the Patriots have a major slot presence in the form of Julian Edelman, who is always the safe bet to lead New England in targets on any given Sunday. But more so than in recent seasons and maybe because the protection has improved, this passing game has become more vertically inclined with Chris Hogan as the top target downfield.
Run-after-catch skills still remain extremely important in this offense and as the Steelers found out and Atlanta will have to be very wary of. Solid tackling is must to even slow this group down. Not to mention, Brady is a surgeon in the red zone and you know the bright lights won’t be a problem for this guy on Sunday.
On defense, the Patriots employ a high number of players, often in a rotation based on down, distance and game situation. Everyone on this side of the ball knows their role and plays well within the designed structure of the defense.
New England allows few big plays and it historically tightens up the closer to the end zone it gets. By a pretty wide margin, the Patriots allowed the fewest points in the NFL during the 2016 regular season. And while this is impressive, they also were aided quite a bit by an extremely lackluster slate of opposing quarterbacks, which won’t be the case in the Super Bowl. They are also aided by Brady never putting them in compromising positions with costly turnovers.
Contrary to popular belief, this defense is not the chameleon that some make it out to be. They do the same thing on a week-to-week basis as they have in the past. In fact, they are pretty straightforward and simple with their scheme. This has become an execution-based defense rather than one that constantly looks to outwit their opponent or relies on deception and scheme.
Far more than most teams, the Patriots like to play with five defensive backs against the opponent’s base offense, but with three safeties. Duron Harmon played over 500 snaps during the regular season as New England’s third safety. They also rush just three players a high percentage of the time. This could be due to the fact that the Patriots biggest defensive weakness is their pure pass-rush. So instead of trying to boost that area of weakness with blitz, they do the opposite and force the quarterback to find windows against eight coverage players.
Rushing just three is only the case on about a quarter of their pass-rushing snaps, but that is a very high percentage compared to the rest of the league. However, Matt Ryan utterly destroyed three man pressures this year.
The Patriots defensive ends are quite solid against the run, though. This is a very difficult unit to run on overall. New England’s defensive tackles don’t get the credit they deserve, but they are big, powerful and consistently occupy the line of scrimmage. By being so dominant on the interior, the Patriots get away with having that extra defensive back on the field (and dime when Atlanta goes with three wide receivers) and therefore, become faster and more versatile with their back seven.
As noted above, New England will rotate players in and out of the game. In fact, during the regular season, it had 19 defensive players log at least 227 snaps even though the team stayed very healthy on this side of the ball.
Dont’a Hightower, a big physical downhill player that is also a great blitzer, quarterbacks this defense and is New England’s top second level player. Hightower will often be alone on the second level as the Patriots use a lot of 5-1 looks. Still, expect Atlanta to try to exploit Hightower and the other Patriots linebackers in coverage with its dangerous receiving running backs.
The Patriots secondary is excellent. Devin McCourty and Malcolm Butler have established themselves as two of the better players in the league at their respective positions. McCourty often operates as the last layer of defense, but the former cornerback shows excellent versatility as well and will be manned up against tight ends or wide receivers.
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New England now plays a lot of man coverage and match Butler and Logan Ryan, who has improved immensely since the beginning of the season, against wide outs based on their opponents strengths and weaknesses. Butler usually lines up against the smaller shiftier types like he did in the AFC Championship Game against Antonio Brown while Ryan often draws the assignment against bigger prototypical receivers, like Julio Jones. The Falcons are a truly great offense, but the Patriots actually match up to them quite well.