National Signing Day Rewind: Recruiting rankings for last 10 national champions
By John Buhler
To win a national title, a football program must win in recruitment. Does a team need a top-five class to win it all? How have the last 10 champions fared?
While coaching and on-field execution are tremendously important to winning college football games, winning off the field in recruitment is paramount to contending for national championships. Despite the NCAA’s efforts to inject parity into the FBS, the same blue blood programs continue to win national championships.
This is because the top high school athletes want to play for college teams that have both the legacy and the resources to contend for national titles annually. Most of the time eventual national champions will have put together a handful of top-five recruiting classes in the four-year run leading up to the victory in the title game. Is that always the case? How have the last 10 national champions fared in recruitment in the four years leading up to winning it all?
Here are the recruiting class rankings for the last 10 champions’ four previous recruiting classes, according to 247Sports.
2016 Clemson Tigers: 2016 (11th), 2015 (9th), 2014 (17th), 2013 (15th)
2015 Alabama Crimson Tide: 2015 (1st), 2014 (1st), 2013 (1st), 2012 (1st)
2014 Ohio State Buckeyes: 2014 (3rd), 2013 (2nd), 2012 (5th), 2011 (7th)
2013 Florida State Seminoles: 2013 (11th), 2012 (3rd), 2011 (2nd), 2010 (7th)
2012 Alabama Crimson Tide: 2012 (1st), 2011 (1st), 2010 (5th), 2009 (2nd)
2011 Alabama Crimson Tide: 2011 (1st), 2010 (5th), 2009 (2nd), 2008 (3rd)
2010 Auburn Tigers: 2010 (6th), 2009 (23rd), 2008 (24th), 2007 (10th)
2009 Alabama Crimson Tide: 2009 (2nd), 2008 (3rd), 2007 (13th), 2006 (15th)
2008 Florida Gators: 2008 (6th), 2007 (1st), 2006 (2nd), 2005 (12th)
2007 LSU Tigers: 2007 (5th), 2006 (9th), 2005 (13th), 2004 (3rd)
Since 2007, nine of the 10 college football national champions have hailed from Southeastern schools. The SEC has seven champions and the ACC has had two. The only school outside of this region to win it all was the 2014 Ohio State Buckeyes, a blue blood program if there ever was one.
From 2006 to 2012, the SEC won seven straight national championships. The Florida Gators won two (2006, 2008), the LSU Tigers won one (2007), the Alabama Crimson Tide won three (2009, 2011-12), and the Auburn Tigers won one (2010).
Bucking the trend in 2013 was the Florida State Seminoles of the ACC. After Ohio State’s victory over the Oregon Ducks in 2014, Alabama would win again in 2015. This past season, the Clemson Tigers won their first national championship since 1981 by beating Alabama.
By all standards, these champions hail from either blue blood or near-blue blood programs. Usually, they win national championships well before hand on National Signing Day.
In the last 10 years, the most impressive allotment of talent was the 2015 Alabama team. Nick Saban has had the best recruiting class every year since 2011. The 2015 team was composed of four No. 1 recruiting classes. Alabama is poised to have the best recruiting class for the seventh season in a row heading into 2017 National Signing Day.
If we drop that insane recruiting threshold down to having a top-five class in the four years leading up to a championship, again, only Alabama has hit that benchmark in the last 10 years. Saban did it three times with his 2011, 2012, and 2015 championship teams.
Strangely, the only other national champion of the last 10 years to have a top-10 class in the four years leading up to it was the 2014 Buckeyes. They finished second to Alabama on National Signing Day in 2013 and were no worse than seventh in 2011.
Therefore, it’s not paramount to have a top-five recruiting class annually heading into National Signing Day to win build a national championship contending team. That being said, eight of the last 10 national champions have had at least one top-five recruiting class in the four years prior to winning it all. Alabama, Florida, Florida State, LSU, and Ohio State all had at least one top-five class. The two exceptions were 2010 Auburn and 2016 Clemson.
Auburn had the No. 6 recruiting class in 2010. The Tigers had the No. 10 class in 2007 but were in the 20s in 2008 and 2009. Lackluster recruitment compounded into why this 2010 team came out of nowhere. There were very few pros on this team. Their two leaders were junior college transfer Cam Newton, part of the 2007 recruiting class at Florida, and defensive tackle Nick Fairley. The stars aligned for that Tigers team that year.
Clemson never did better than No. 9 heading into National Signing Day with their 2016 Championship team. The Tigers were in the teens the other three years. Unlike with 2010 Auburn, the 2016 Clemson team wasn’t an anomaly; we could see this rise to national prominence from a mile away. It helped to have Deshaun Watson at quarterback, that’s for sure.
Like Auburn, Clemson is a near-blue blood. Auburn is the little brother school to juggernaut Alabama and lacks a major metro area to recruit from. Columbus, Georgia only offers so much talent. South Carolina doesn’t have the in-state athletes of an Alabama, Florida, Georgia, or Louisiana. Add in that Clemson has a formidable in-state Power 5 to combat in the Gamecocks and that explains why Clemson doesn’t get top-10 classes annually or top-five ever.
Overall to win a national championship in the College Football Playoff era, a program needs to have garnered either a top-five recruiting class at some point in the four years or a have an upperclassman that is a first-round talent at quarterback.
Great quarterback play elevates decent programs to have great seasons like 2010 in Auburn and 2016 in Clemson. Looking forward to 2017, here are the Power 5 programs that have had at least two top-five recruiting class from 2013 heading into 2017 National Signing Day: Alabama (4), Florida State (3), Ohio State (3), Georgia (2), LSU (2).
Here are the top five recruiting classes the last four seasons, according to 247Sports.
2017: 1. Alabama, 2. Ohio State, 3. Georgia, 4. Michigan, 5. Oklahoma
2016: 1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. LSU, 4. Ohio State, 5. Ole Miss
2015: 1. Alabama, 2. USC, 3. Florida State, 4. Tennessee, 5. Georgia
2014: 1. Alabama, 2. LSU, 3. Ohio State, 4. Florida State, 5. Texas A&M
Sure, it’s speculative but the data indicates that it’s an 80 percent probably that one of these 11 Power 5 schools will end up being the 2017 National Champion. Can elite quarterbacking talents like Trace McSorley (Penn State), Lamar Jackson (Louisville), or Jake Browning (Washington) elevate their teams to win the fourth annual College Football Playoff?
Next: Predicting where top 25 uncommitted recruits sign
Potentially, but elite recruiting schools like Alabama, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, and Ohio State are significantly more likely to win the 2017 National Championship than other Power 5 programs. Recruitment is still very much the lifeblood of college football.