FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – February 1
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 85 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 373.9 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Wednesday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with twelve games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Kyle Lowry ($8,700) With DeMar Derozan already ruled out for this game, we can simply lock in Kyle Lowry tonight in all formats for less than $9k. Lowry comes into tonight’s game with 49 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and gets a match-up tonight against Boston and Isaiah Thomas who has the worst individual defensive rating of any PG in the NBA.
Without DeRozan on the floor, Lowry sees a 3% usage increase, leading the Raptors with a 30% usage rate while putting up 1.17 fantasy points per minute. These two teams played just a few weeks ago and Lowry dropped 44.3 FD points against Boston and I would expect that to be his floor tonight. Lowry should be popular, but on a 12 game slate I am far less concerned with playing the ownership game as percentages should be largely diluted with this many options and will simply look to build my best roster which started with Lowry!
Brandon Jennings ($5,600) With Derrick Rose still sporting a walking boot yesterday, we should expect Jennings will draw the start again for the Knicks and lucky for him, Jennings gets to face off with the worst defensive team in the NBA, the Brooklyn Nets!
The Nets are ranked 30th in DvP to opposing PG’s and Jennings comes into this game after putting up 39 and 34 FD points in his last two starts with Rose off the floor. Jennings is putting up 6.5x value at this price point as a starter and the Knicks are a team we want to target aggressively tonight.
The Knicks have the second highest implied team total on the slate, see the largest pace bump of any team in action and are expected to score nearly 7 points more than their season average tonight. Fire up Jennings tonight in what Vegas expects to be a high scoring and close affair!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Klay Thompson ($6,300) The Warriors come into tonight’s game with the highest implied team total as they typically do and have the biggest injury news surrounding them as Stephen Curry is questionable to play due to the flu which forced him to miss Sunday’s game.
In that game, Klay Thompson stepped up and dropped 41 FanDuel points against Portland and tonight takes on a Hornets team that is 24th in DvP to opposing SG’s. When these two teams faced off just a few games ago, Klay dropped 30 FanDuel points on the Hornets which would seem like his floor in this match-up.
Rodney Hood ($4,500) Hood returned to the Jazz starting lineup two games ago after missing the previous five games with an injury and has stepped right back into his usual 30+ minutes of action. In his last game out against Memphis, Hood put up 28.3 FanDuel points which would exceed 6.2x and Hood has quietly hit 6x value in three of his last five games!
Hood takes on a Bucks team that is ranked 25th in DvP to opposing SG’s and the price point here is such that have significant profit potential while also allowing us salary flexibility at other positions. I expect Hood will go overlooked tonight, but he is one of my favorite point per dollar value plays at a tough to fill SG position!
Norman Powell ($4,200) Powell will likely be the chalk tonight t SG with DeRozan out again as he was 38% owned and that was with the DeRozan news coming an hour before lock! I certainly can see the value in a large GPP strategic fade but keep in mind that Powel is averaging 29.7 FD points in the four games DeRozan has missed which would exceed 7x value at this price point!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Paul George ($9,500) The price has spiked on George but his recent performance has warranted the price increase as he now has 42+ FanDuel points in each of his last four games including a 50 burger his last time on the court.
The Pacers-Magic game is one of the sneakier contests on this slate as with a 211.5 total and 2.5 point spread we should expect a game where both teams score at a higher pace than they normally do in a close contest!
The Magic are ranked 21st in DvP to opposing SF’s on the season so this is a good spot for PG-13 but you could also pivot to Jimmy Butler ($9,500) at the same price point as he takes on an OKC team that is 23rd in DvP and is coming off 50+ FanDuel outings in two of his last three games!
Carmelo Anthony ($8,500) As I mentioned earlier, we want to target the Knicks as much as we can tonight and with Derrick Rose already ruled out and Kristaps Porzingis dealing with an injury, Melo should be a lock and load play at SF.
With those two players off the floor this season, Melo has a massive 47.6% usage rate while piling up 1.27 fantasy points per minute. That usage rate is an insane 15% increase off his regular numbers and I will start most of my rosters tonight with Melo as he faces a Nets team that is 30th in DvP against SF’s.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Serge Ibaka ($5,800) This play may not jump off the page to many DFS players but Ibaka comes into tonight’s game exceeded 6x value in two of his last four games while putting up 34.6 and 36 FD points in those contests. Tonight, Ibaka faces a Pacers team he dropped 32 FanDuel points on earlier this season and he makes for a solid mid-range target within this roster construction that has a safe cash game floor with GPP upside!
At the same price point, Ersan Ilyasova ($5,800) makes for a great pivot with Joel Embiid AND Robert Covington out tonight. ersan has a 25.6% usage rate and averaged .9 fantasy points/minute with both the players off the floor and should be able to dominate a Dallas interior that as struggled all year to rebound the ball!
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Channing Frye ($4,200) With Kevin Love out tonight, we can certainly look towards the obvious plays like LeBron James or Kyrie Irving, but we can also utilize the value play at PF in Channing Frye. With Kevin Love and J.R. Smith off the floor this season, Frye is just under a fantasy point per minute producer and was able to put up 23 FD points last time out which would exceed 5.5x value.
Richard Jefferson got the start in the Cavs last game but with a match-up against a much taller Minnesota team tonight, it will be interesting to see if Frye gets the start to deal with the Dieng/KAT front-line!
Myles Turner ($6,800) Turner is one of my favorite plays at a loaded Center position tonight as he faces a Orlando team he absolutely destroyed earlier this season. In their last meeting, Turner dropped 23 points, 12 rebounds and 45 FanDuel points which would exceed 6.6x value at this price point.
Turner is coming off a 43 point double-double against the Rockets his last game out and this is a great spot to target him tonight in GPP play at a price point that will allow you to load up on other high-priced stars!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!