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Fantasy Golf: DraftKings PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open

By Matt McGarvey

Feb 6, 2016; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Danny Lee tees off on the 16th during the third round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open golf tournament at TPC Scottsdale. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 6, 2016; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Danny Lee tees off on the 16th during the third round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open golf tournament at TPC Scottsdale. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /
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PGA: Waste Management Phoenix Open - Third Round
PGA: Waste Management Phoenix Open - Third Round /

Fantasy Golf: DraftKings PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open

This week’s DraftKings PGA event will take us to Scottsdale, Arizona, for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This tournament is notorious for a raucous atmosphere that can positively or negatively affect a golfers’ weekend. The course will play at over 7200 yards and a par 71. Overall, it’s a week course fit, as far as styles are concerned. Both bombers and ball strikers have had success, so I won’t be weighting course fit as much as I normally would. We’ll be looking to target the normal key metrics: GIR, driving distance, adjusted round score, and birdie scoring.

Pricing is pretty odd this week with a few players glaringly under and over priced, so balancing value and ownership will be the key to success this week.

Top Tier: $12,000 – $8,000

Jan 29, 2017; La Jolla, CA, USA; Phil Mickelson tees off on the 3rd hole during the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open golf tournament at Torrey Pines Municipal Golf Course - South Co. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 29, 2017; La Jolla, CA, USA; Phil Mickelson tees off on the 3rd hole during the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open golf tournament at Torrey Pines Municipal Golf Course – South Co. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports /

Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, and Justin Thomas fall into the “elite” tier of DraftKings PGA pricing this week. While it’s hard to make a case against any one of these golfers, we have to consider ownership and pricing, as always. Spieth should be in the top three highest owned players this week, due to name recognition alone. I think Matsuyama and Spieth are trending in different directions and would favor Spieth because of that. While Matsuyama checks almost every box and has the most impressive course history, I think now is an proper time to expect some regression back to earth. His putter was unbelievable during his hot streak, but we’ve seen the early signs of regression with a 33rd place finish at the Farmers, and a 27th place finish at the Sony. I’ll have exposure to all three, but favor Spieth, even with the inflated ownership.

Phil Mickelson -$8400

While Lefty will draw ownership in droves, he seems very under-priced, for DraftKings PGA, at only $8400, this week. Phil Mickelson won on this track back in 2013, and had an 11th place finish last year. While Phil doesn’t hold any stand out metrics, his implied Vegas odds, are higher than his relative pricing on DraftKings. Phil now sits with a 3.8% implied chance to win.

Brendan Steele – $8200

Brendan Steele is probably my favorite play of the week. Steele is another player with outstanding course history, recording a 5th place finish and two 6th place finishes. He’s also coming into the weekend in great form. Steel is coming from a 20th place finish at the Farmers, and two 6th place finishes at the CareerBuilder and the Tournament of Champions.

Others to have exposure to: Patrick Reed ($8900), J.B. Holmes ($8800), John Rahm ($9700)

Mid Tier $8000 – $7000

Aug 13, 2016; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Byeong An (Hun) tees off on 11th hole during round 3 of men's golf in the Rio 2016 Summer Olympics at Olympic Golf Course. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 13, 2016; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Byeong An (Hun) tees off on 11th hole during round 3 of men’s golf in the Rio 2016 Summer Olympics at Olympic Golf Course. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports /

Byeong-Hun An – $7,100

Byeong-Hun An will anchor my low owned, high exposure DraftKings PGA plays. Relatively unknown, An, will fly under the radar in low entry contest. An ranks 6th in the field for course and field adjusted birdies. Birdie scoring is essential on DraftKings and An can offer.

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Tony Finau – $7600

Tony Finau is another player stroking it well at the moment. Coming off of a 4th place finish at the Farmers, I’d expect Finau to have another big outing. Finau is known for hitting the long ball, thus giving him opportunities to collect birdies. Finau has an implied chance of winning at 2.4% which is higher than most players priced in the same range.

Others to have exposure to: Adam Hadwin ($7800), Russell Knox ($7500), Matt Kuchar ($7400), Martin Laird ($7200), Ryan Palmer ($7100), Marc Leishman ($7000), Daniel Berger ($7000)

 

Mid Tier $7000 – $6400

Sep 5, 2016; Norton, MA, USA; Louis Oosthuizen hits his tee shot on the 16th hole during the final round of the 2016 Deutsche Bank Championship golf tournament at TPC of Boston. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 5, 2016; Norton, MA, USA; Louis Oosthuizen hits his tee shot on the 16th hole during the final round of the 2016 Deutsche Bank Championship golf tournament at TPC of Boston. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports /

Louis Oosthuizen – $6900

This one is a bit of a head scratcher. Louis Oosthuizen stands out as one of the most underpriced DraftKings PGA options in the field, but I’m somewhat unsure of how his ownership will look in tournaments. While pricing always has adjusted due to the current field, Oosthuizen is priced down a full $2400 from his $9300 salary at the Farmers! Oosthuizen will be in play in all formats. He is cash game viable for his ability to make cuts. He hasn’t missed a cut since the British Open.

Chez Reavie – $6800

Chez Reavie is one of my favorite sub $7000 plays this week. While Reavie doesn’t have the best course history, he is a resident of Scottsdale, and played his college golf at Arizona State. The more important factor is his current form. Reavie’s most recent tournaments resulted in a 12th, 8th, and 4th place finish. Reavie is a more accurate style golfer, hitting 67.7% of fairways, and 69.6% GIR.

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Others to have exposure to: Kyle Stanley ($6800), Lucas Glover ($6500), Sean O’Hair ($6900)

Best of luck this weekend!