North Carolina vs Maryland: Which is the best Justin Jackson?

Two Justin Jacksons are excelling during the 2016-17 college basketball season, but which of the two does the name more justice?

Justin Jackson is a good basketball player.

Depending on your fandom or where your college basketball knowledge is centered, that sentence could refer to two different things. If you were based in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, you would probably think of this Justin Jackson. If you lived in College Park, Maryland, you might think of this Justin Jackson. With a name like Justin Jackson, it may not be surprising to find that they share it. That they would both be top contributors on two of the best basketball teams in the NCAA, though, seems unlikely.

I will be hoping for the rest of this season that the NCAA Tournament selection committee understands this fact and places Maryland and North Carolina in the same bracket come March. All I want out of this 2016-2017 season is to see a Justin Jackson Bowl. Until then, all we have to go by is watching them on tape and looking at their numbers to compare and contrast. These two Justin Jacksons are close in size –UNC’s is 6-foot-8, 193 pounds; Maryland’s is 6-foot-7, 225 pounds– though they play slightly different positions. UNC’s Jackson plays mostly as a small forward, while Maryland’s plays most often as his team’s power forward. These slightly different roles will make comparison inexact, but it should be close enough.

So which Justin Jackson is better? That’s what I’m here to figure out. I’ll be breaking the game down into several categories, reviewing each Justin Jackson’s game in said categories, awarding a winner, and totaling up a score at the end. Let’s get to work.

[Note: From here on out, I’ll be referring to each player by the name of their school, UNC or Maryland, much of the time. I, and I assume you, can only take writing/reading the words Justin Jackson so many times.]

Shooting

This one should be fairly easy to figure out as shooting numbers are widely available and easy to break down. UNC’s long-range jumper has undergone a transformation this year. He’s shooting a robust 39.8 percent from downtown on nearly seven attempts per game. After being a terrible shooter in his first two years at UNC, he needed to revamp his shot since he is a wing and spends a lot of time on the perimeter. In short, it worked, and the team as a whole shoots a significantly better percentage from 3 because of it. It opens up space for his big men to go to work down low and greases the offense in general. UNC’s Jackson shoots 65.9 percent at the rim and 38.2 percent on all other twos, per Hoop-Math, both decent numbers. All of that translates to a 55.0 percent effective field goal percentage, ranked 332nd out of 1245 players in Kenpom‘s leaderboards. All told, UNC is a good shooter whose shot making is a big key to his team’s offense.

Maryland’s JJ has been a phenomenal shooter his freshman year. While he takes just 3 attempts per game from beyond the arc, less than half of UNC’s number, he’s knocking in 46.3 percent of them. He has made 9 of his last 12 from deep as of this writing, and that proficiency makes Maryland’s offense tough to beat. Being able to spread the floor with four good shooters stretches the defense and allows star guard Melo Trimble to penetrate, collapse the defense, and get good shots for his teammates. Maryland’s shoots slightly better than UNC’s at the rim (probably due to his bulkier frame), clocking in at 69.2 percent, though slightly worse on other twos at 29.7 percent, according to Hoop-Math. Despite taking less of his shots from 3, the large advantage in that category gives Maryland’s the slight edge in eFG percentage at 56.2, or 248th in Kenpom’s database.

The Verdict: Because of his overall better efficiency, Maryland’s Justin Jackson takes this round. Shooting so well from deep as just a freshman while UNC’s Justin Jackson took three years to develop his skill is an advantage that cannot be ignored.

Playmaking

Neither Justin Jackson is a particularly adept playmaker, so this section will be short. Both play with exceptional point guards in Joel Berry III and Trimble, so UNC’s averages 2.6 assists per game while Maryland’s averages just 1.0. This doesn’t tell the whole story though, as UNC’s is undoubtedly asked to create more. Still, he holds a sizable advantage in assist rate, coming in at 15.6 to Maryland’s 6.6. While Maryland’s is just a freshman and will likely be asked to work on his playmaking as a stretch four, he’s not quite there yet. The final piece of the puzzle is to see what kinds of shots they’re getting for their teammates. Per Synergy Sports, UNC’s dishes 22.2 percent of his dimes for 3s, coming in at 2.254 points per assist. Maryland’s does him slightly better, with 28.76 percent going for 3s and 2.286 points per assist.

The Verdict: Though not a large role in either’s game, UNC’s Justin Jackson gets this category. Because he is only a freshman and already creates good shots, Maryland’s could soon find himself a better playmaker, but this exercise is evaluating what they are now. There is no doubt UNC’s is the better distributor.

Rebounding

This category is probably the most biased. Because Maryland’s plays up a position and doesn’t play alongside beasts like Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks, he will naturally put up the better rebounding numbers. As such, Maryland’s is ripping down 6.3 rebounds per game. Exactly one-third of his boards come on the offensive end, winning his team an extra possession. His defensive rebounding rate, a measure of how many of the available defensive rebounds he gets to, is a modest 15.9, but his offensive rebounding rate is 9.0, very good for a player his size. This could be boosted by his rangy 7-foot-3 wingspan. He is clearly a better offensive rebounder than defensive, a surprising fact considering he spends much of his time on offense around the perimeter. While his guards get back in transition, he crashes the glass relentlessly to track down missed shots.

UNC’s sucks in just 4.8 rebounds per game. Playing next to excellent big men hurts, as mentioned earlier. A quarter of his rebounds are offensive, though being a perimeter player that is a solid figure. His defensive and offensive rebounding rates are 12.4 and 4.2 respectively, so it appears his so-so arms (6-foot-11 wingspan) for his size are not exactly doing him any favors. Though his role does penalize him here, he has good size for his position and as such would be expected that he gets to more rebounds. Guard Seventh Woods outdoes him in defensive rebounding percentage, while guard Kenny Williams is better on the offensive end.

The Verdict: While Maryland’s has the upper hand due to situation, it seems that he is a better rebounder. His superior wingspan gives him better reach and allows him to get to some boards UNC’s may not. Maryland’s Justin Jackson gets the point here.

Defense

Due to numbers and metrics doing an incomplete job of capturing a player’s impact on defense, this category will be the toughest to sort out. While matchups and quality of competition play a big part here, both of these players are on a top team in a Power Five conference. I think it is safe to assume that both are facing elite counterparts almost every time they step on the floor.

As far as his per-game numbers go, UNC’s Jackson does not look exceptional defensively. He averages 0.5 of both steals and blocks per game despite getting a heavy load of playing time. The more advanced numbers don’t do him any favors either. Both his steal and block rates are also below 1, coming in at 0.9 and 0.8 respectively. Synergy has him as a below average defender, giving up 0.933 points per possession, good for the 27th percentile nationally. North Carolina’s defense as a whole is solid, though they do it mostly by cleaning the defensive glass (an area where he doesn’t help much) and by preventing foul shots. That is where UNC’s Jackson does an excellent job. He commits just 1.9 fouls per 40 minutes, by far the best on his team and 99th among 2148 eligible players on Kenpom’s site. While he gives up buckets a little too easily and doesn’t force many turnovers, he limits the opponent’s opportunities for free points, a big part of the game.

Maryland’s Justin Jackson fares significantly better on defense according to the numbers. He averages a slightly better 0.9 of both steals and blocks per game, though he plays fewer minutes so when converted to rate stats, they look even better. His steal rate is 1.8, solid for a big man, and his block rate is a great 3.5. One of Maryland’s strengths as a team on defense is blocking shots, ranking 63rd in the country per Kenpom. Jackson is the team’s best shot blocker that plays a significant amount of minutes, so he is a big part of that. Another thing they do well is limiting opponents’ shooting. Jackson also excels in that area, allowing a measly 28 percent on field goals which is above the 90th percentile, according to Synergy.

The Verdict: Maryland’s Justin Jackson looks to have the upper hand here. The two teams overall are very comparable defensively, and in just about every quantifiable way, Maryland’s is helping his team out more than UNC’s.

Importance of Role

This is the final, and probably most important, category. It is significantly easier to look better when you are not the focus of attention of the defense or asked the carry the load for your team. This is where UNC’s Jackson holds a significant advantage. Because of the up-and-down play of his guards, he is the premier go-to player on the Tar Heels. He takes the most shots on his team and uses the second or third-most available possessions depending on which variation os usage percentage you look at. While he is surrounded by a talented roster, he has led his team in scoring in half of their 24 games this season and sports the highest scoring average on the team. He is an experienced junior and one of the leaders of the team. His role is one of the most, if not the most, important to UNC.

Maryland’s Justin Jackson does not play nearly as important a role. He is just a freshman, getting his feet wet 22 games into his college career. He takes the second most shots and scores the second most points on his team behind point guard Melo Trimble. That’s still impressive for a freshman, and he uses the third or fourth-most available possessions on his team depending on the specific metric. He has only led the team in scoring in four of their 22 games. The Terps are clearly dominated by Trimble, and Jackson is relegated to being a role player, albeit an important one. As he grows older and his game develops, he could become a go-to guy, but his game is not quite good enough for that yet.

The Verdict: Justin Jackson of UNC is far more important to his team. Being a leader and the alpha dog on the court, he plays a vital role that not many could recreate for such an elite team. Maryland’s Jackson plays a solid role for his own very good team, and good role players like him are why some think this is Melo Trimble’s best team yet.

Results

The battle of the Justin Jacksons goes to Maryland’s version by a score of 3 categories to 2. The Terrapin Jackson stands ahead in shooting, rebounding, and defending while the Tar Heel takes home playmaking and role. As I mentioned, however, role is easily the most important of the facets of the game I laid out. It affects all of the others in a significant way and shapes how the player goes about the game.

Next: Clutch or lucky: College basketball’s best teams in crunch time

If I had to pick one of these two to have on my team right now, it would be UNC’s Justin Jackson. His age and proven ability to drive a great team make him an indispensable player. Maryland’s being nearly two years younger, however, gives him the edge in potential. He has been exceptional as a freshman and is coming on strong of late, winning Big Ten Freshman of the Week for the last week in January. He’s showing what he can do and as his game grows he could become a very dangerous player.

That’s all for this round of which is better. Now to go back to hoping we can see these two line up across from each other in what would surely be a postseason classic.